PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - ronlang44 (I-IL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:9

Prediction Map
ronlang44 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ronlang44 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep248
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep205
 
Ind0
 
Tos96
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-69252290-69
Rep+4+1+69000222179+69
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
83492653
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is my final prediction for 2012. I personally have 8 tossup states. They are New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. I truly believe that any of these 8 states are up for grabs. When I take away these electoral votes from these 8 states my personal tally is 237 for Obama and 205 for Romney. I think New Hampshire and Wisconsin will most likely go Democrat and Florida will Republican. I have Nevada leaning to Obama and Virginia leaning to Romney. Adding those states in brings the tally for Obama to 257 and Romney to 248. The last 3 states are Colorado, Iowa and Ohio. That's 33 electoral votes still up for grabs and I think these are the truest "tossup" states. As of right now, I believe that these final 3 will go to Obama, but anything can change. It wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong on all of these 8 states. The most electoral votes I have Obama potentially winning is 303. The most I have Romney winning is 300. I think Obama is more likely to win 303 than Romney is to win 300. Finally, it would not surprise me to see Obama win the electoral vote and Romney win the popular vote. I'm also predicting between 125-130 million voters for this Presidential election.
One final thing. I think the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska, 1 electoral vote, may go to Obama like it did in 2008.


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Member Comments
 By: ronlang44 (I-IL) 2012-11-05 @ 18:11:07 prediction Map
One final thing. I think the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska, 1 electoral vote, may go to Obama like it did in 2008.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 48/56 31/56 79/112 70.5% pie 5 251 280T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 19/36 53/72 73.6% pie 8 1 158T
P 2012 President 54/56 29/56 83/112 74.1% pie 9 1 640T
P 2008 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 3 47 503T
Aggregate Predictions 186/204 109/204 295/408 72.3% pie


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