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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:2

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem368
 
Rep170
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep155
 
Ind0
 
Tos51
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+100-1-1292358+9
Rep0+1+1-10-10212169-9
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
89483353
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Not much has changed in 9 months from original prediction in February. Changes in picks and analysis below:

MT - A potential pick-up passed on, possibly due to XL pipeline

NE2 - A minor loss due to redistricting. Dropped.

MO,IN - Still my surprise upset picks due to the horrid Republican senate candidates. Reverse coattails.

NC - Considered going with conventional wisdom and giving it to Romney, but late polling shows an Obama resurgence. Tossup.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Prefrence (R-MO) 2012-11-05 @ 16:57:55 prediction Map
Romney has a double digit lead in Missouri, there is absolutely no chance in Hell Obama will win there.

Akin is not going to cost Romney the state, especially when he still has a good shot at winning the senate seat himself.

Indiana will see a slight swing to Obama due to how recent Murdouck's comments were, Indiana will still probably go for Romney by Double Digits.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 345/394 202/394 547/788 69.4% pie



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