Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-06-06 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	222
Rep	316
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	205
Rep	212
Ind	0
Tos	121

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-12	-1	-137	17	2	222	-137
Rep	+12	+1	+137	0	0	0	22	2	179	+137
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
77	41	26	5	5

Analysis

6/6/2012 Initial Prediction

Member Comments

By: Ernest (D-SC) 2012-06-06 @ 11:30:55
Romney winning Minnesota while Oregon remains Lean Obama? I just don't see that. At most Oregon would be Tossup Obama and personally I'd think if Mitt takes Minnesota, he'll take Oregon as well.

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-08-16 @ 22:11:08
Still looks the same to me. A lean is based on the percentage of votes won in the 2008 election. Clearly, if Obama were to win in 2012 there is no way (even by the most fanatical of minds) he will win by more votes or even as many.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-16 @ 22:44:47
I like the optimism!

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-17 @ 13:05:02
As I have said to everyone, MN GOP is in shambles, broke sued by city governments and one in which the Independents have flown from....will it be closer yes but a 5% win is expected! At least.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-08-17 @ 17:48:28
Yeah I dont see Minnesota or New Mexico going GOP this year even in the event of a Romney victory. Other states here are possible.

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-08-17 @ 21:35:59
Where is this guy getting this from? Certainly not the polls, or the rather sour electoral history of those who make entitlement privatization their banner issue. Looks to me like a classic hack map.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-17 @ 21:52:05
Looks right to me.

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-09-03 @ 01:10:53
haha, I am a hack? hehe shows how how off the reservation you are. I WILL NOT vote for Romney, he was forced upon the conservatives before a single poll was even taken. I cannot support a shoe-in in Romney. As much as I hated McCain I voted for him...he was the last man standing (even though I don't know anyone who voted for him in the primary). Romney was anointed by the mainstream conservative media (FOX News ONLY) before a single poll was taken. I cannot support that. That being said, if Obama won a state by LITTLE over 50% in 2008 I don't see how he could possibly win by more this year...in fact, I contend he can only get fewer votes (whether he wins or not)...and that SHOULD BE THE REALISTIC POSITION. As to my "hack position". Honestly, I'd much rather Obama win by 1 vote than have Romney win by 1. I think the only way ENVIOUS leftists hacks will learn is by reaping what they sow...which they really haven't to date. I am prepared to suffer for this too.

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-09-03 @ 01:21:58
BTW, my map shows Obama's butt being handed to him...and it will...after-all, Romney would get even less votes than Reagan did in 1984...seems like a highly realistic situation to me. - All the blacks are going to vote for Obama. What percentage of the population is that? 13%? - The non-black morons who voted for Obama who believed the parties were the same (I agree with them with a politician like McCain or Romney) will have come to their senses and vote for someone that isn't Obama - This means that states that were won by Obama in a lean will likely be a toss-up and won by that douche Romney. Regardless of the stadiums Obama fills, based on the best possible scenario (taking into account Obama's results) means that Obama will lose lean states (for the most parts) unless Romney completely screws up (which he could...he already screwed up the RNC)

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-03 @ 07:36:59
I appreciate your view of the situation BUT NM and MN would still be in the group especially if Michigan is...does not change your map much but still a win for ROmney is plausible with the two exceptions I mention. Again the MN GOP is broke, in shambles and there are no ROmney offices here yet. He has written off the state although it will be closer as I have said. People who vote one way or theother mostly do for honorable reasons....Obama morons or ROmeny racists, both terms are just less than stellar advocacy by a deeply divided country.... We need change but not continually going back and forth between extremes...common sense appraoches to problems are called for..

By: MN_DFL (D-MN) 2012-09-04 @ 02:12:04
I too think that there is (almost) no chance for Romney to win MN. even with the marriage thing on the ballot, it looks like the DFL is very well mobilized, especially considering what happened in WI and will not allow a Robme victory in the state.

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-09-30 @ 01:33:35
And that is where the supposedly "common sense" voter fails. When they say that the "extremes are bad." Extremes are the only thing that works unfortunately. The middle does not exist in a candidate, and assuming it does, it will will not result in a centrist government. The left knows this, which is why they always forward extreme leftist ideologies. They know that in the end, what eventually moves forward is a compromise. If they can get the the right to put up a reasonably centrist candidate, the compromise will be left regardless. Little by little everything gets moved left to the extreme as it has been. Therefore, to counter act this, the right must move forward with extreme right candidates and ideas. This will counter act the left's extreme ideas and result in a "happy medium." Unfortunately, the majority of the population does not realize this and continue to vote for a centrist to the extreme detriment to the right and this country. You will never get true centrist government until extremes on both ends are elected. To this point, only extremes on the left have been elected. Take this one to heart, "When the opposition to an extremist is a centrist, government moves in favor of the extremist." - SirJOW Last Edit: 2012-09-30 @ 01:39:11

By: dgentile (G-NJ) 2012-09-30 @ 04:17:19
I think the commenters here are trying to help you see the empirical problems with your prediction. Things that are quantifiable and measurable, even if by inaccurate means such as polls. Have you considered perhaps that your world view, that the majority is wrong and have to be led by the reactionary vanguard, is not shared by the majority which is cognizant and self enabled, and hence centrism is merely an artifact of statistics? I refer to your comment: "Unfortunately, the majority of the population does not realize this and continue to vote for a centrist to the extreme detriment to the right and this country."

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-10-06 @ 02:49:19
I'm not sure what you're talking about dgentile, but by your prediction I wouldn't talk...I'm pretty sure the results of this next election will be far closer to my prediction than yours. BTW, Green Party? Looks like an extremist point of view to me...and your prediction proves it. You truly expect Barry to win by more than he did in 2008? THAT is extremism to the core. Even IF Barry does win re-election. And if Barry were to win, I think I'd be content as I truly wish the populace reaps what they have sowed in leftism. Unfortunately, as is always the case, the innocent must suffer. Last Edit: 2012-10-06 @ 02:52:53

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-10-07 @ 11:16:57
This is a highly unlikely map I feel. How is Mitt to win states where he isn't even advertising nor campaigning? How is he to lose MI and PA but yet win MN and NM? Are you basing this on actual data from voter responses or just your opinions? Obama will be re-elected but by a 1-pt narrower margin than in 2008 - 52 to 47. That means he'll win in about all of the states he won by more than a 1-pt margin last time, so everything but IN and possibly NC. I don't see how letting ideology or wishful thinking enter into it is a logical way to lead one's life. Like it or not, these events will occur, so what's the sense in getting upset about it? Isn't that (and this map) just cheerleading, therefore? -Jeff

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-07 @ 12:13:08
The innocent will suffer no mattere who wins the white house that is for sure...it is tough to buck Wall Street/K street and DC... However, it will be a closer election if things keep the path they are going...

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-08 @ 12:28:29
The person who made this map should apologize, after election day, for being so willfully ignorant. I don't like this kind of silly analysis from either side. If my map had Obama winning every state with the exception of Utah, Idaho, Mississippi, Alabama and TN--I would give you all the right to call me out on it too. Sir, will you commit to an apology on this website when your "analysis" turns out to be a load of crap ?

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-11-02 @ 21:29:43
Hmm, I usually find that I change my prediction week to week in the closing weeks of the election. Not so in this election. FiveSenses82...have you been watching the news? I would say my tossups are just about right...that being said, I'd say there's 50% chance I'm right and 50% BO wins the election. Regardless, I'd say for a prediction I made in June, it's darned good. Even if I failed to put PA as a tossup...which it should be! HAHA Last Edit: 2012-11-02 @ 21:31:40

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-02 @ 22:47:18
I said in August about this map: "Look right to me." I saw in today's WaPo that a poll shows that ONLY 84% of Obama's 2008 voters say they will vote for him again, 13% say they'll vote for Romney and 3% aren't sure. Multiply his total in 2008 -- 52.9% -- by 84% and you get 44.4%. As I've said elsewhere today, it looks like he'll be lucky to top 47% on Tuesday.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-02 @ 22:49:38
Pretty funny: In the comment just above mine on 08-17-2012, albaleman calls this "a classic hack map". But his latest map shows Obama winning 358 EVs, with 322 certain. :-)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	49/56	25/56	74/112	66.1%	1	294	473	T	678
2012 President	46/56	31/56	77/112	68.8%	1	153	699	T	760
2012 Senate	24/33	9/33	33/66	50.0%	1	4	319	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	1	4	131	T	228
2008 President	49/56	30/56	79/112	70.5%	8	11	537	T	1,505
2008 Senate	26/33	8/33	34/66	51.5%	1	53	390	T	407
2008 Governor	8/11	2/11	10/22	45.5%	2	53	257	T	264
2004 President	53/56	29/56	82/112	73.2%	11	5	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	264/312	140/312	404/624	64.7%

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