Decided to go with a pessimistic view of Super Tuesday. I'll either be pleased by the results or rack up the points with the predictions.

Bumping Wyoming up to Romney 40% from 30%.

Revising my pre-Super Tuesday predictions.

Updated Wyoming on the basis of partial caucus results.

Decided to shift Maine from Paul 30% tossup to Romney 30% tossup based on self-reported results from Paulites at those caucuses already held. This will be close whoever wins.
--
Did a second edit after seeing the Alabama poll and made a bunch of pro-Santorum shifts at Newt's expense.

Revision after the Santorum sweep yesterday. BTW, there is an error above. I'd meant Colorado to be Romney not Gingrich. Oh well. Doesn't affect my score as it was still wrong.

Also polling indicates that tactical voting in Virginia will not be as high as I thought it might be, so I've moved that state into the Romney column.

Bumping Colorado up from a tossup to a sure thing for Romney, but still keeping him at 30%, tho he'll be close to 40%.

Moved Minnesota into the Santorum column, but I'll wait to see if my prediction comes true before readjusting my later predictions.

Fiddled with the results of the contests between now and Super Tuesday, Other than Nevada, don't really feel confident about any of the results. It's Mitt's nomination to lose now, but how long this lasts, I don't know.

I'm going to go with the assumption that Romney wins Florida, and thus does better in the later races than I had originally predicted. Florida can no longer be the knockout punch for Newt. However, unless Mitt can break the 50% barrier, it won't be a knockout punch for him.

Giving Newt the edge in SC and upping my confidence in him winning Florida.

I upped the margin for Romney in SC from Lean to Strong, and switched back to having Gingrich win the contest between him and Santorum. leaving the eventual three-way contest to be between Mitt, Ron, and Newt.

I'm assuming here that Gingrich drops out after South Carolina, leaving Santorum to be the conservative standard bearer in a three-way race between: establishment Romney, libertarian Paul, and conservative Santorum. Largely the same prediction as before with Santorum replacing Gingrich, but with a few tweaks, tho I haven't reconsidered every state in detail.

I see several scenarios developing based on how Iowa turns out. This one assumes the top three are in order: Paul - Santorum - Romney

Santorum keeps going a while longer, but is unable to turn a second place in Iowa into anything elsewhere in time to matter, leaving Gingrich to limp along as the least wounded of the anti-Romneys. Paul is able to win some caucuses once the field has thinned a bit, but Virginia is the only primary he wins thanks to it being a two-person race. (Romney would be the beneficiary if Gingrich is successful in getting onto that ballot.)

If I get the time, I'll do a Santorum wins Iowa map tomorrow.

(Never did get the time, so I'll wait till after the Iowa caucus results are in to do it if he wins.)

Changed my prediction for Missouri to Gingrich 80% under the assumption that Dave will get around to making this prediction refer to the binding caucus that will be held on 17 March instead of the non-binding beauty contest primary on 7 February.

I've revised my prediction to have Newt do better early and Romney drops after losing Arizona and Michigan on February 28. Paul will remain as may some of the ideologues, but the nomination will be secure by then. Only reason I have Romney winning Alaska and Washington is because they are early caucus states. Had they been primaries, I'd have placed those in Newt's column as well.

I'm assuming that the field remains divided enough to allow Romney to win Iowa, but that it quickly becomes a two-man race between Romney and Gingrich. Paul remains in the race and wins a few caucuses along the way thanks to his cult-like following.

Mitt drops out after being swept in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia on May 8th, and gets some votes in the contests afterward due to already cast absentee votes and being on the ballot in a few states that already printed them up.

A first guess. I expect Paul to do best in caucus states, and he may be enough of a thorn in Perry's side to cost him some states that Perry would win in a straight-up contest with Romney.