Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	37
Paul	1
Santorum	10
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	32
Paul	0
Santorum	4
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	15

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
64	45	19

Analysis

Romney 60% for every remaining state with the obvious exception of Utah.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 41

Minor adjustments.

Version: 40

Percentages were lower in the PA, NY, RI, DE, and CT primaries than I was expecting, so I've adjusted the remaining states to reflect what may be continued resistance to Romney's nomination.

Version: 39

With Santorum now out, the only question left is whether or not a handful of Southern states still hate Mitt Romney so much that they end up voting for Newt Gingrich.

Version: 38

Minor updates. Very few tossup states left, almost every state seems to have an obvious lean.

Version: 37

Updated Wisconsin and Indiana, and changed a few confidence classifications. Regardless, the nomination fight will go at least to the end of May, when Texas votes, or through June, when Romney will almost certainly attain the number of delegates necessary to wrap up the nomination when he wins California.

Unless some major scandal surfaces between now and June, Romney will be the Republican nominee. He's in a war of attrition, and Santorum doesn't have the resources to win.

Version: 36

Santorum looking solid in Louisiana on Saturday. If he can survive April (potentially a big if) then May is going to be great for him.

By the way, the Romney Super Pac/Death Star is already up with attack ads here in Pennsylvania.

Version: 35

Wondering how much this "Etch-A-Sketch" issue is going to hurt Romney. It really is a perfect metaphor for his entire history as a candidate for political office.

Version: 34

Gingrich is still polling over 10% in national and state polls despite the reality that he has no chance of being the Republican nominee. The fact that he seems to be staying in this race indefinitely, combined with the fact that he appears to be establishing a solid floor of support, throws a growing number of Santorum states into tossup status.

I think the only chance for Santorum at this point would be to pull off a Carl Paladino style upset in the New York primary by turning out the upstate vote in droves.

Version: 33

Predictions through the rest of the primary process. The key states look to be North Carolina, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. I still say that Romney is the favorite to be the nominee, but if Santorum can get a result similar to what I'm projecting then it looks increasingly clear that this could very well go all the way to the convention.

Version: 32

Gingrich is now going to become irrelevant for the voters, regardless of whether or not he ever gets out of the race. I suspect Adelson is going to pull his money from the Gingrich Super-PAC very soon, and even if he stays in the race, Gingrich won't have any way to get his message out.

Romney is still extremely likely to be the nominee, because he should win California and New York and probably has the money to buy Texas, but to me it looks like this fight is going all the way to June now, if not to the convention.

Version: 31

I would not be surprised at all if the polls are overestimating Romney's support in both Alabama and Mississippi. I find it hard to believe that any state where 40% or more of Republicans believe that President Obama is a secret Muslim, and another 30% aren't sure, is going to vote for a Mormon. I actually think Romney could come in third in both states.

Hawaii is a much more difficult state to call. While the conventional wisdom says Romney will pull it out there, my gut says that Ron Paul has a real chance at an upset win there. However, I've decided not to go with gut predictions, since all too often my gut has been wrong on these sorts of things. Still, if there is any state left where Ron Paul has a plausible chance to win, it is Hawaii, where Herman Cain once led the polls.

Version: 30

Why is Newt Gingrich still in this race?

Version: 29

With Santorum pulling off a larger victory than I expected in Tennessee and coming very close in Ohio, I think he remains relevant in this race. If he can beat Gingrich in Mississippi and Alabama, then he can probably force Gingrich out of the race, which keeps this alive at least through the end of April.

With Romney winning the large states, I would be very surprised if he doesn't end up as the Republican nominee. Still, he hasn't wrapped this thing up, which will make for a very fun next couple of weeks if Santorum can win a string of states.

Version: 28

It looks like the Romney campaign's Death Star will only have Gingrich to pay attention to after tomorrow night.

Version: 27

Santorum needs to win all three of Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee to stay viable. I now have all of his states after Super Tuesday listed as tossups, because if he doesn't pull off that trio of wins there is going to be tremendous pressure for him to get out the race.

For the Super Tuesday states: I wouldn't be surprised to see Idaho go 60% Romney, if the Mormon vote turns out for him there, and I think 80% Romney in Virginia is possible as well.

Version: 26

Some minor updates. Changed Washington from Santorum to Romney, as it looks like Paul isn't going to get enough support to drag down Romney's numbers.

Version: 25

I need to stop making last-minute gut-based decisions in these predictions. They aren't working out very well for me.

Version: 24

Last-minute updates of Michigan and Arizona.

Version: 23

It looks like Romney is going to easily win Arizona, and right now he has the slight edge in Michigan. I'm curious to see if the Anti-Romney crowd unites around either Gingrich or Santorum after those states. If it doesn't, then Romney will probably win this thing in a war of attrition.

Version: 22

Santorum seems to have the momentum in Arizona right now, and Romney seems to have the momentum in Michigan. Santorum is definitely improving his position in the rest of the country, hence some new lean states for him.

I think it's quite possible that tomorrow's debate is going to be key, and that the winner of it may well win both Arizona and Michigan.

Also, I think Santorum could win Georgia if he put in the effort there, but I don't see that happening right now.

Version: 21

Decided to let the map play out a little farther through the calendar. No prediction for Texas yet, since they aren't going to be having their primary until late May, at the earliest.

Version: 20

If Ron Paul can't even win Maine, then there is no chance that he is going to win any other states.

Version: 19

EDIT: I've changed my Maine prediction back to Paul. Please see the comments below for further analysis.

I wasn't going to do another map, but I've changed my mind on Maine. Ron Paul can only win Maine if Mitt Romney's support totally collapses: the states where Ron Paul does his best are the states where Mitt Romney does his worst, there is a clear correlation. However, I do think Paul is likely to beat his result from 2008 by 8-12 percentage points, as he has in many states this year, which would drag Romney down by at least as many. Additionally, Santorum's support is likely to correlate to Mike Huckabee's support in 2008: in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota he got approximately 25-30% more than Huckabee did four years ago, so we can probably reasonably give Santorum a baseline of 30-35% in Maine, with the slightly different demographics suggesting that the 30% number is more likely. That would additionally drag down Romney's support, though probably by maybe only 10%, as Romney would make it up with the votes he wins from John McCain's 2008 supporters. Add in a bonus of some very substantial momentum coming into the state, and I think the following split of votes is reasonably likely:

Rick Santorum: 36%
Mitt Romney: 31%
Ron Paul: 29%
Newt Gingrich: 4%

Realistically, there are paths to victory in Maine for Santorum, Romney, and Paul. But because of the huge boost in momentum that Santorum seems to have received from his wins on Tuesday (Public Policy Polling has tweeted that he is now leading their national poll), I'm going to go out on a limb here and give the state to Rick.

Version: 18

I'm now thinking that Gingrich is going to be out of the race shortly after Super Tuesday on March 6, so I've adjusted some of the later states to account for that. I've also switched Arizona to Romney and Michigan to Santorum. Romney barely won Michigan in 2008, and I think he's not going to put enough effort into winning there this time.

Probably the last map for a week or two, unless some new polling comes out in Arizona or Michigan that makes me change a prediction.

Version: 17

Mitt Romney just lost Colorado.

Mitt Romney just came in third in Minnesota.

Wow.

Also, testing out these new Bachmann colors. You can ignore those states, they are undecided for now.

Version: 16

Taking a bit of a risk with the Minnesota prediction, but I think it's worth it.

I am really looking forward to the second half of the month where I can actually afford to go over a week without making a new map.

Version: 15

Back to Gingrich as the candidate of the south.

Version: 14

Getting a feeling that Gingrich is about to get out of the race and endorse Santorum. No solid evidence just yet, but something seems to be going down.

Late update: Looks like that isn't going to happen. New map will be up after midnight.

Version: 13

A few minor percentage adjustments.

Version: 12

Looking more and more like Gingrich is just going to end up as the candidate of the South.

Version: 11

After a few sub-par debate performances, it looks like Gingrich probably won't be able to turn his momentum into a win in Florida. I think he still stays in the race for a while, since the big contests like Texas and California aren't until late in the race, but it looks fairly unlikely that he's going to be able to build any sort of strategy to winning the nomination. The interesting thing to consider is whether or not he will stay in until the end in an effort to force a brokered convention. He seems to intensely dislike Mitt Romney on a very personal level, and I could see him doing just that.

Version: 10

Predictions through the end of March.

Gingrich definitely revived his campaign with his larger than expected victory in South Carolina. I think he'll have enough momentum to get a close victory in Florida, overcoming Romney's likely slight advantage in the early voting, and then he will have a fair amount of momentum going forward beyond that. Romney still has a good chance of winning the nomination because of his organizational and monetary strength, but he clearly has lost the inevitability narrative. Even more fascinating, if the South Carolina exit polls are to be believed, Gingrich is now starting to win the electability argument, largely through his impressive debate performances. If he can keep that up, he could end up winning the nomination.

There is still a lot of volatility in this race, and I could see it going almost anywhere at this point, but this prediction is the most likely outcome I can draw up at the moment.

One thing to watch: Santorum's message is largely focused on manufacturing. If he stays in the race through Super Tuesday he could potentially take enough votes in Ohio to give that state to Romney. I personally expect Santorum to be out after Florida, but if he's not, that could be something that saves Romney's campaign, as Romney could claim that Gingrich's message isn't particularly viable outside of the South.

Version: 9

This race is moving so quickly that, for the moment at least, I'm not willing to predict anything beyond Super Tuesday other than Utah.

Late update: Looking at the most recent polls, it looks like Gingrich could actually win with nearly or even OVER 40% in South Carolina. If that happens, I think I may have to shift Florida to Gingrich.

Version: 8

It looks like Santorum isn't going to be able to get any momentum going, and its clear the Republican establishment is putting all of its power into casting Gingrich as an enemy to conservatives. I think Gingrich manages to win some of the southern states where they won't be comfortable with a Mormon, and he probably stays in for at least a while, but he has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Paul will also likely win a few states that the others won't contest, but ultimately it looks like Romney has managed to keep the conservative vote fractured enough that he will win the Republican nomination despite the fact that there is no enthusiasm behind his candidacy.

Version: 7

With Bachmann out and Gingrich practically endorsing Santorum (while oddly still staying in), this race is about to get interesting. If Santorum can get his fundraising going, I expect a map like this is quite possible. If Perry gets out of the race, that would also be a big help to Santorum.


The most fascinating thing is that I don't see any way that Ron Paul could even consider backing either Romney or Santorum in the general election, since they are both hawks on foreign policy. I think an endorsement of Gary Johnson by Paul is likely down the road.

Version: 6

Whoever wins Iowa is going to be in the 20% range, clearly. The recent polling suggests Santorum has the momentum going in, and if Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry's supporters defect to try to stop Romney from winning, Santorum will be the guy they defect to. An upset win in Iowa could easily catapult him to co-frontrunner status in the rest of the country.

Never before have I seen a race this chaotic.

I think Bachmann will probably be done shortly after Iowa, and that Gingrich probably is done after either South Carolina and Florida. Hard to say when Perry leaves, since he has a stronger national organization and more money than either of those two. Paul will be in it until the end, since he has nothing to lose. Huntsman isn't worth discussing, unless something dramatic happens.

Version: 5

Why Rick Santorum? Why not Rick Santorum.

There are still more than two weeks until any of the voting starts, and that seems like it would be just the right amount of time for a new anti-Romney candidate to emerge. Rick Santorum hasn't been that guy yet, so I think his time he may be due.

Oh, and I think Ron Paul has a fair chance of actually forcing this thing to a brokered convention.

Version: 4

Supposedly Ohio is about to move their primary to March, so the prediction has been adjusted to reflect that. If they do move it to March, that may actually end the campaign sooner than otherwise.

Version: 3

Mostly just a few minor adjustments, for now. There have been a few polls showing Paul gaining ground in Iowa. If that keeps up, it could throw this whole thing into disarray.

Version: 2

Alright, actual predictions for the rest of the states. I see Romney lasting until the Pennsylvania and New York primaries on April 24th, and then dropping out after that. He would like to last until California in June, but after losing Pennsylvania he'd have to sweep almost everything left, and will likely give up. I see Paul winning a few states that the other campaigns likely won't focus on and that his libertarian message will play well in. Romney wins Utah even after dropping out of the race, much like Dean winning Vermont in the 2004 Democratic primary.

Also, even the "strongly confident" states are really not all that confident. They are only confident relative to the other states, and only if the assumptions I am making play out properly. For all I know Rick Santorum could be the new anti-Romney by January.

Version: 1

Disclaimer: For now, only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida are actual predictions. Everything else is literally just me having fun with the maps.

Version History

42: 2012-05-13 @ 23:37:18 41: 2012-04-27 @ 23:17:41 40: 2012-04-25 @ 01:46:49 39: 2012-04-10 @ 15:15:35 38: 2012-04-01 @ 22:05:07 37: 2012-03-26 @ 21:31:33 36: 2012-03-23 @ 00:47:53 35: 2012-03-21 @ 14:19:39 34: 2012-03-18 @ 23:55:20 33: 2012-03-15 @ 16:10:00 32: 2012-03-14 @ 00:16:31 31: 2012-03-12 @ 18:58:31 30: 2012-03-10 @ 13:04:06 29: 2012-03-07 @ 01:05:50 28: 2012-03-05 @ 15:04:25 27: 2012-03-04 @ 13:35:43 26: 2012-03-02 @ 00:54:56 25: 2012-02-28 @ 22:14:06 24: 2012-02-27 @ 22:30:21 23: 2012-02-26 @ 22:39:17 22: 2012-02-21 @ 14:55:13 21: 2012-02-15 @ 15:30:11 20: 2012-02-11 @ 18:27:55 19: 2012-02-10 @ 17:21:23 18: 2012-02-09 @ 00:33:24 17: 2012-02-08 @ 15:08:51 16: 2012-02-06 @ 14:59:23 15: 2012-02-05 @ 00:30:58 14: 2012-02-04 @ 18:32:17 13: 2012-02-03 @ 16:50:39 12: 2012-02-02 @ 14:02:06 11: 2012-01-27 @ 02:23:33 10: 2012-01-22 @ 00:55:07 9: 2012-01-20 @ 18:11:04 8: 2012-01-13 @ 19:09:47 7: 2012-01-04 @ 12:09:31 6: 2012-01-01 @ 01:14:13 5: 2011-12-19 @ 01:44:16 4: 2011-12-14 @ 16:40:51 3: 2011-12-13 @ 17:30:31 2: 2011-12-01 @ 19:44:35 1: 2011-11-30 @ 15:49:58 View Version