If Santorum wins Michigan. Its official, he is the Republican nominee.

Today is the Iowa Caucus. It is the first contest in the process of determining the next Republican nominee. Throughout its history regarding the GOP, the winner of this primary usually does not end up the nominee, unless the winner of the primary is contested in a very competitive way, like the Ford VS Reagan GOP primary of 1976. But further more Iowa is a state of continues change, a swing state. This means that Iowa is state that is very likely to vote for an underdog, like Paul, Bachmann, or Santorum. But it may also very well vote for Romney or Gingrich. No one really knows how Iowa will vote tomorrow, but at least Im happy to know that Iowa always goes first in the primaries, which is good, because that means that we can have an underdog win the caucus first. We will just have to all see.

It seems like its going to be a three way as we move through the end of December between Romney, Gingrich, and Paul. Gingrich is becoming stronger in the south and moving his way through the mid-west all the way to the pacific, like California. California, is among the most important states to carry because although it is a strong blue state, considering the general presidential election, still being the largest state in the union it will have the most delegates, 172 to be exact, one of only two states to carry a three digit number in delegates, the other being Texas with 155, which is also being led by Gingrich in the polls. This is important because this means that one of the candidates with less states can possibly win, because he or she will be able to win by having more delegates.

As of this week Ron Paul is showing an increase in the polls, usually ending up second or third in most polls, specifically the northern mid-west, states like South Dakota and Iowa.

On January 3rd, Iowans will decide there candidate. Iowa is split between three candidates, Romney, Gingrich, and Paul.
Scenario #1: If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, it will be very difficult for the other two or any candidate to catch up to him in the other states.
Scenario #2: If Gingrich wins Iowa, that will put him at the front of the game, with a good chance at winning the nomination and will strongly increase his potential of winning the other states amongst the other candidates.
Scenario #3: If Ron Paul wins Iowa, this primary will become a very interesting and exiting toss-up, and may not only make it into an instant three-way, but increase the polls of other candidates within other states.
Scenario #4: If another candidate wins, then the polls are wrong, and it will not be the first time it occurs.

Herman Cain Suspended his campaign on December 3rd. Due to the fact that he is no longer in the race his votes are up for grabs. In my opinion Herman Cain will either endorse Mitt Romney, a strong candidate and fellow business man like himself, Newt Gingrich, a southern republican from Georgia who carries strong conservative ideas like him, or Rick Perry. But why Rick Perry? Well, easy. Rick Perry is lacking popularity as of right now and needs a huge pick up if he wants to win any primary race. Cain is a southerner, with rather radical conservative opinions, like Perry, who until now was competing with him in the polls of his own state of Texas. What I believe Cain is looking for as of right now is a comfortable position as Vice-President. If Rick Perry wins the nomination, it will be no surprise to me if he chooses a certain Herman Cain as his VP running mate, for his own benefit.

In my opinion, Newt Gingrich will receive most of Cain's support as of right now, that Cain has not endorsed any of his opponents.

As of right now its seems that Gingrich and Romney will win the majority of the primaries. If anything, it is possible that Bachmann or Paul could win one or two states. Perry, Im afraid will have trouble even trying to win his own state of Texas.

In my opinion, the biggest toss-up on the map is Iowa. Who knows who will win that state. In that state every one has a fair chance of winning. Mainly in my opinion Gingrich, Paul, or Bachmann, it is possible for Perry to come in 3rd, but frankly not any farther up than 3rd. Romney may win Iowa, because he isn't doing to bad in the neighboring states. We will all just have to wait and see on, January 3rd.

Well, my predictions are based off the polls. It is a combination of my opinion, the polls, history, this website, wikipedia, and the straw polls.

I don't think Mitt Romney is going to be the GOP nominee for 2012, usually the first one in line to the GOP nomination never wins. This also happens in the Democratic party. We saw this happen in the historic 2008 presidential election, where most of americans and the early polls believed that Rudy Giuliani, who did not pick up a single state in the 2008 GOP presidential primary, was going to win the GOP nomination, and Hillary Clinton was going to win the Democratic nomination, but in Clinton's case, she did actually win the majority of the party's popular primary vote with about 48% to Obama's 47%, but unfortunately for her, not the majority amount of delegates or states even.

In recent GOP history the frontrunner was not elected the nominee, before the actual primary elections began, in the years: 2008, 1980, and 1976.

In recent Democratic history the frontrunner was not elected the nominee, before the actual primary elections began, in the years: 2008, 2004, 1992, 1976.