Date of Prediction: 2016-10-14 Version:2
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
First update in a long time, at Hillary's lowest points I've been too frustrated to update to reflect a closer race. As expected however, the race has maintained its status quo of a large Clinton win.<br /> <br /> Some adjustments made in this update. Trump clearly leads in Arizona, though I still think it could be in play, Clinton's odds there currently do not appear reasonable to leave it in the tossup leaning Clinton category, it is neither. Missouri has never really looked winnable for Clinton in this race and therefore shifts away from tossup because it is not. Iowa shifts to "tossup" as Trump is clearly inordinately strong there compared to his weakness nationally.<br /> <br /> I've dropped Trump's percentage in Utah because they clearly don't really like him, but it's not at all in play, I may drop it more in the future if I start to feel like 3rd parties may play a role there, McMullen in particular. Shifts in the percentage won't likely reflect changes in win probability there. Georgia now appears to be the traditionally Republican State most likely to go Clinton, followed by Arizona, South Carolina, Missouri, Texas, and Utah.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 1 First draft, based more on theory than on polls. If Clinton wins by 9% (52-43), then that should produce general shift towards states that were previously swing states showing a distinct lean towards Clinton, and states that have distinct Republican leans moving into play. The non-uniformity of this shift ought to reflect the state's demographics with white States such as Missouri or Indiana showing more resistance to shift and diverse states such as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas showing more volatility. Hispanics in particular are likely to a defining force, bold initial projection has Arizona going to Clinton due to the high hispanic population. Will reconsider with viable polling after the convention, but this is forward looking more than a statement of where the race is today.
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