Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-29 Version:14

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	322
Rep	210
Ind	6

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	272
Rep	157
Ind	0
Tos	109

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+1	0	+15	-2	-1	-25	25	1	307	-10
Rep	+2	+1	+25	-2	0	-21	22	3	185	+4
Ind	+1	0	+6	0	0	0	0	0	0	+6

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
78	45	25	5	3

Analysis

Looked over every contest today. Between Johnson's expectable collapse and the slight pullback in Clinton's fortune, my map is looking rosier for Trump, but still not rosy enuf to be a win, just not as crushing a defeat as it could have been for him. Last time Utah in the I column was a placeholder for Trump 20%, now it truly is McMullin 30%.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%	12	5	575	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%	1	24	358	T	423
2018 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%	1	356	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	14	10	325	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%	1	73	120	T	362
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	19	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	48	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	22	0	2	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%	18	-	75	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	2	3	21	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%	1	3	17	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	137	92	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	79	1	100	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%	17	2	2		465
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	16	2	6	T	312
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	47	1	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	568/627	396/627	964/1254	76.9%