Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-03-13 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	266
Rep	272
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	253
Rep	210
Ind	0
Tos	75

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	0	-66	22	2	266	-66
Rep	+5	0	+66	0	0	0	24	3	206	+66
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
80	46	28	4	2

Analysis

This is Clinton vs. Trump. Trump is able to make gains into the Rust Belt, and also wins Florida for the GOP. He also wins Colorado due to the anti-Clinton sentiments. He wins New Hampshire because he isn't far-right on culture war issues like Ted Cruz.<br /> <br /> Clinton is able to win Virginia due to the demographic changes and the progressive sentiments of NOVA. She wins Nevada and New Mexico due to the explosive Latino turnout.<br />

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	2	5	434	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	18/35	49/70	70.0%	1	9	309	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	1	11	147	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	1	1	132	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	1	3	122	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	1	240	246	T	678
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	1	1	25	T	279
Aggregate Predictions	215/241	144/241	359/482	74.5%