Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:13
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Analysis
Here is my final prediction for the election. Clinton at 322, Trump at 216. I think that Clinton will have a margin of about 6% in the two party vote (excluding third parties), with a final result of 49.5% Clinton, 43.5% Trump, and 7% Other. I think that the vote in Ohio and Maine 2nd will be very close. I had a hard time picking their eventual winners, but the polls currently seem to favour Trump in those places. I think Arizona will be closer than expected if the Latino voting pattern seen in Nevada can be replicated there. As for Iowa, it can be flipped, but it is a very very steep slope, and I find it unlikely. North Carolina and Florida seem possible for Trump, but his dismal GOTV operation makes me think this is not very likely. Nevada may be already lost for him due to the early vote there, but there is still a slim slim chance of a victory. I really don't think he could win New Hampshire. The Clinton campaign successfully executed a head fake when they got Trump to uselessly campaign in Michigan rather than in FL, OH, or NC, which goes to show the incompetence of the Trump team. Anyways, we will not have to play the guessing game for too long, as California will be called in 27 hours, and hopefully the election will be called not long after that. This has been a crazy election, one for the history books, certainly. Many people appear sick of the campaign, and they don't have to wait too long, but I really enjoyed following the election. Even though I was disgusted with Trump's behaviour, disappointed in the media, shocked at the conduct of the FBI, sickened by the actions and Wikileaks and Putin, I fell in love with Hillary all over again. Her resilience, her refusal to quit is a really inspiring example to me. Many people have negative opinions of her based on the Benghazi nothingburger, the e-mail non-scandal, all of which were nurtured over 25 years by the right. In the end, I am proud to support her, and hope and pray that she can be the first female President of the United States. Only 27 hours remain.
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