PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - WinstonOBoogie (D-ON) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:13

Prediction Map
WinstonOBoogie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
WinstonOBoogie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem322
 
Rep216
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem272
 
Rep179
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-2-1-25251307-10
Rep+2+1+25-10-15233191+10
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
84463053
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Here is my final prediction for the election. Clinton at 322, Trump at 216. I think that Clinton will have a margin of about 6% in the two party vote (excluding third parties), with a final result of 49.5% Clinton, 43.5% Trump, and 7% Other. I think that the vote in Ohio and Maine 2nd will be very close. I had a hard time picking their eventual winners, but the polls currently seem to favour Trump in those places. I think Arizona will be closer than expected if the Latino voting pattern seen in Nevada can be replicated there. As for Iowa, it can be flipped, but it is a very very steep slope, and I find it unlikely. North Carolina and Florida seem possible for Trump, but his dismal GOTV operation makes me think this is not very likely. Nevada may be already lost for him due to the early vote there, but there is still a slim slim chance of a victory. I really don't think he could win New Hampshire. The Clinton campaign successfully executed a head fake when they got Trump to uselessly campaign in Michigan rather than in FL, OH, or NC, which goes to show the incompetence of the Trump team. Anyways, we will not have to play the guessing game for too long, as California will be called in 27 hours, and hopefully the election will be called not long after that. This has been a crazy election, one for the history books, certainly. Many people appear sick of the campaign, and they don't have to wait too long, but I really enjoyed following the election. Even though I was disgusted with Trump's behaviour, disappointed in the media, shocked at the conduct of the FBI, sickened by the actions and Wikileaks and Putin, I fell in love with Hillary all over again. Her resilience, her refusal to quit is a really inspiring example to me. Many people have negative opinions of her based on the Benghazi nothingburger, the e-mail non-scandal, all of which were nurtured over 25 years by the right. In the end, I am proud to support her, and hope and pray that she can be the first female President of the United States. Only 27 hours remain.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 247
P 2023 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 2 1T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 29/35 64/70 91.4% pie 23 1 7T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 39 1 11T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 11 48T118
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 14 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 14 4 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 4 35T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 26/35 58/70 82.9% pie 9 1 15T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 12 3 6T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 13 1 87T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 21/34 53/68 77.9% pie 11 1 16T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 6 1 119T279
Aggregate Predictions 327/354 245/354 572/708 80.8% pie



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