Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	353
Rep	185
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	274
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	101

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+2	+1	+27	-1	0	-6	26	2	326	+21
Rep	+1	0	+6	-2	-1	-27	22	2	179	-21
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
74	44	25	3	2

Analysis

This may be optimistic, but I feel there is a late break for HIllary. I think with her superior ground game and record Latino turnout, she will do better than expected with perhaps a 5-6% win in the popular vote.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	31/35	66/70	94.3%	1	0	1	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	1	0	5	T	272
2020 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	1	5	434	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	1	3	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	5	147	T	293
2016 President	47/56	27/56	74/112	66.1%	1	0	473	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	21/34	51/68	75.0%	1	0	60	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	4/12	13/24	54.2%	1	0	119	T	279
2014 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	1	0	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	0	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	49/56	105/112	93.8%	2	0	4	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	1	0	2	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	0	24	T	228
2010 Senate	36/37	30/37	66/74	89.2%	1	0	4		456
2010 Governor	35/37	28/37	63/74	85.1%	2	0	11	T	312
2008 President	53/56	49/56	102/112	91.1%	7	1	3	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	4	1	9	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	2	1	9	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	101	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	16/33	46/66	69.7%	1	184	257	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	19/36	52/72	72.2%	2	160	107	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	614/659	454/659	1068/1318	81.0%