PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - cwech (D-WA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-14 Version:2

Prediction Map
cwech MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
cwech MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem326
 
Rep175
 
Ind0
 
Tos37
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15000272332+15
Rep000-10-15233191-15
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
77442742
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

First update in a long time, at Hillary's lowest points I've been too frustrated to update to reflect a closer race. As expected however, the race has maintained its status quo of a large Clinton win.<br /> <br /> Some adjustments made in this update. Trump clearly leads in Arizona, though I still think it could be in play, Clinton's odds there currently do not appear reasonable to leave it in the tossup leaning Clinton category, it is neither. Missouri has never really looked winnable for Clinton in this race and therefore shifts away from tossup because it is not. Iowa shifts to "tossup" as Trump is clearly inordinately strong there compared to his weakness nationally.<br /> <br /> I've dropped Trump's percentage in Utah because they clearly don't really like him, but it's not at all in play, I may drop it more in the future if I start to feel like 3rd parties may play a role there, McMullen in particular. Shifts in the percentage won't likely reflect changes in win probability there. Georgia now appears to be the traditionally Republican State most likely to go Clinton, followed by Arizona, South Carolina, Missouri, Texas, and Utah.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 6 130T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 2 4 274T423
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 2 25 369T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 0 164T362
P 2014 Senate 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 3 6 231T382
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 4 14 47T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 17/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 8 144T343
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 12 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 91T312
P 2008 President 54/56 38/56 92/112 82.1% pie 13 1 178T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 7 1 96T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T264
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 25 3 88T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 11/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 15 207T312
Aggregate Predictions 512/549 330/549 842/1098 76.7% pie


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