Election 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-05-20 Version:17

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	31
Biden	0
Sanders	21
Webb	0
Chafee	0
O\'Malley	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	23
Biden	0
Sanders	12
Webb	0
Chafee	0
O\'Malley	0
Other	0
Tossup	17

Analysis

Probably my last update for the Dems: Clinton is strongly favored in PR, DC, NJ, and NM Sanders is strongly favored in ND and MT Clinton is favored in CA and Sanders in SD, which will make June 7th rather anti-climatic after all is said and done. Clinton will informally clinch the nomination with the win in NJ, and will formally win a majority of pledged delegates later in the day with the win in CA.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	31/35	66/70	94.3%	2	2	1	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	2	2	104	T	272
2020 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	6	6	502	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%	5	4	309	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	6	3	56	T	372
2016 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	6	1	409	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	20/34	50/68	73.5%	8	1	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	3	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	4	1	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	16/36	45/72	62.5%	4	1	145	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	14	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	47/56	103/112	92.0%	8	1	26	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	5	1	20	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%	30	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	25/37	60/74	81.1%	1	2	54	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%	1	2	74	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	3	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	2	0	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	3	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	6	7	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	22/36	57/72	79.2%	8	7	50	T	312
2004 President	51/56	34/56	85/112	75.9%	1	162	706	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	804/877	564/877	1368/1754	78.0%

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