PredictionsMock2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Predictions - NYCMM (C-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-10-23 Version:1

Prediction Map
NYCMM MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
NYCMM MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Warren8
 
Biden0
 
Sanders0
 
Buttigieg31
 
Harris13
 
Klobuchar0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Warren8
 
Biden0
 
Sanders0
 
Buttigieg30
 
Harris13
 
Klobuchar0
 
Other0
 
Tossup1
 

Analysis

I'd expect the outcome of this election to be a Buttigieg/Warren ticket, he wouldn't pick Harris because he'd need to ideologically balance out the ticket and Warren would be a close second. <br />rn<br />rnBiden would flame out early and Harris would be the candidate who takes up the lion's share of the black vote, but not to the extent that Hillary did vs Bernie in 2016. <br />rn<br />rnBernie would flame out early and endorse Warren. <br />rn<br />rnButtigieg snags endorsements from Castro and many others, enjoys glowing media coverage and big money support. Warren has a real shot at winning but fails to do so because she isn't as talented a speaker and does a bit worse with both college/non-college whites.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 29/35 17/35 46/70 65.7% pie 1 317 291T305
P 2022 Governor 23/36 13/36 36/72 50.0% pie 1 317 267272
P 2020 President 48/56 32/56 80/112 71.4% pie 2 404 627T684
P 2019 Governor 1/3 0/3 1/6 16.7% pie 1 16 179T192
Aggregate Predictions 101/130 62/130 163/260 62.7% pie


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