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Date of Prediction: 2019-11-12 Version:4
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Version: 102 Final prediction as Biden is now presumptive nominee after Sanders suspended campaign. Version: 67 After a tie with Buttigieg in Iowa, Sanders leads early in NH. <br />rn<br />rnPreliminary Prediction:<br />rn<br />rnSanders 22<br />rnButtigieg 18<br />rnBiden 16<br />rnWarren 13<br /> Version: 65 Final IA Prediction (revised):<br /> <br /> Sanders 24%<br /> Biden 20%<br /> Buttigieg 16%<br /> Warren 14% Version: 64 Final IA Prediction<br />rn<br />rnSanders 24%<br />rnButtigieg 20%<br />rnBiden 17%<br />rnWarren 14% Version: 62 If entire primary was held today Version: 51 Contested convention? Version: 49 If polls stay as they are. <br /> <br /> Current polls:<br /> <br /> IA Avg: Biden +0.4<br /> NH Avg: Sanders +1.5<br /> NV Avg: Biden +8<br /> <br /> Sanders winning NH causes Warren to drop out. Not sure if Sanders can win NV or CA after Warren exits. If Biden pulls off Iowa, he's the nominee. Version: 46 Biden jumps in the polls after leading Sanders narrowly in IA, NH, and NV by under 5%. He cruises to the nomination due to Sanders failing to win in NH and causing Warren to remain in the race. <br />rn<br />rnSanders going after Warren has caused him to drop slightly in the polls. The debate today will determine if there is anymore movement in the polling going forward before the first nominating contest in Iowa. Version: 42 Buttigieg leads in latest poll in NH. Tied in IA with Sanders & Biden. If he wins both, he could get some momentum. Version: 23 Sanders Sweep Version: 21 Sanders is rebounding in the polling, while Warren steadily falls. Biden is improving in Iowa and could win it. Still remains a Biden vs Sanders race in this scenario. Version: 20 This scenario depends upon Sanders winning both Iowa and New Hampshire to cause Buttigieg and Warren to drop out of the race before Super Tuesday. It then becomes a Biden v Sanders race with Sanders winning out after consolidating the Progressive vote. Version: 19 Warren drops out after losing NH to Sanders in this scenario. Sanders consolidates the Progressive vote to overcome Biden's lead in NV and wins many states on Super Tuesday. Sanders has a better standing with Latino voters this time around. Sanders wins the nomination in a close contest over Biden. Version: 9 Buttigieg on the rise Version: 8 Early states favor Pete Buttigieg<br /> <br /> Other states will become more clear after the first 4 contests.
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