Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Warren	0
Biden	41
Sanders	11
Buttigieg	0
Harris	0
Klobuchar	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Warren	0
Biden	34
Sanders	7
Buttigieg	0
Harris	0
Klobuchar	0
Other	0
Tossup	11

Analysis

We are a week away from the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. However, there is still one primary remaining for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden currently has 2,627 delegates of the 1,991 needed to secure the nomination, so the Connecticut primary tomorrow is completely superfluous. For the August 11th primary: In Connecticut, Biden 74%, Sanders 22%. As a result, Connecticut is rated Solid Biden. There has been no nationwide polling in the past four months, so we must assume that it remains with Biden leading with 86% of the vote. POST-PRIMARY UPDATE, AUGUST 12th 2020: Since the primary is over, I decided to look back at my record. Before Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8th, I picked 23/28 (82%) statewide winners correctly, and 7/28 (25%) vote shares correctly. After Mr. Sanders dropped out on April 8th, I picked 24/24 (100%) statewide winners correctly, and 10/24 (42%) vote shares correctly. Overall, I picked 47/52 (90%) statewide winners correctly, and 17/52 (33%) vote shares correctly. This gives me an overall accuracy of 64/104 (62%). FINAL PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 2,695, Sanders: 1,117, Warren: 79, Bloomberg: 51, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2, Uncommitted: 2

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 25

Today was originally meant to be the final day of the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has upended that schedule, along with many other things. Since my last update, there have been several primaries, and I am mostly satisfied with the accuracy of my predictions. I overestimated Mr. Biden in some states, and underestimated him in others. Given how tough it is to guess vote share with no polling in 3 months, I am happy as long as I am within 10% of my prediction. The only state remaining is Connecticut. For the August 11th primary: In Connecticut, Biden 74%, Sanders 22%. As a result, Connecticut is rated Solid Biden. There has been no nationwide polling in the past three months, so we must assume that it remains with Biden leading with 86% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 2,635, Sanders: 1,117, Warren: 79, Bloomberg: 51, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2, Uncommitted: 2

Version: 24

Super Junesday was quite good, and I had a pretty decent performance in my predictions. I was off by less than 8% in any state. I think that is pretty decent for not having any polling in over 2 months. June 9th was also kind of a dud, but I am still quite satisfied with my predictions. I have refined my predictions based on these errors. For the June 23rd primaries: In New York, Biden 77%, Sanders 22%. In Kentucky, Biden 75%, Sanders 20%. For the July 7th primaries: In New Jersey, Biden 75%, Sanders 23%. In Delaware, Biden 81%, Sanders 17%. For the July 11th primary: In Louisiana, Biden 84%, Sanders 14%. For the July 12th primary: In Puerto Rico, Biden 69%, Sanders 26%. For the August 11th primary: In Connecticut, Biden 74%, Sanders 22%. As a result, all remaining states are rated Solid Biden. Note that I cannot change the ratings for Kentucky, Louisiana, or Puerto Rico, as they were not moved from their original dates on this website. There has been no nationwide polling in the past two months, so we must assume that it remains with Biden leading with 86% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 2,113, Sanders: 1,064, Warren: 79, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2. Mr. Biden has officially passed the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the nomination of the Democratic Party on the first ballot.

Version: 23

I am happy with my performance in the post-competitive primaries after Sanders dropped out on April 9th. The only race I missed was Nebraska, where I had predicted Biden to get 67% of the vote, but he over-performed and got 77%. I have adjusted my predictions based on these results. For Super Junesday on June 2nd: In Pennsylvania: Biden 76%, Sanders 22%. In Maryland, Biden 77%, Sanders 22%. In Indiana, Biden 74%, Sanders 25%. In New Mexico, Biden 66%, Sanders 31%. In Rhode Island, Biden 69%, Sanders 28%. In the District of Columbia, Biden 80%, Sanders 19%. In Montana, Biden 70%, Sanders 25%. In South Dakota, Biden 72%, Sanders 27%. For the June 9th primary: In Georgia, Biden 77%, Sanders 20%. In West Virginia, Biden 72%, Sanders 23%. For the June 23rd primaries: In New York, Biden 74%, Sanders 25%. In Kentucky, Biden 73%, Sanders 22%. For the July 7th primaries: In New Jersey, Biden 72%, Sanders 26%. In Delaware, Biden 77%, Sanders 21%. For the July 11th primary: In Louisiana, Biden 82%, Sanders 15%. For the July 12th primary: In Puerto Rico, Biden 65%, Sanders 30%. For the August 11th primary: In Connecticut, Biden 71%, Sanders 25%. As a result, all remaining states are rated Solid Biden. Note that I cannot change the ratings for Kentucky, Georgia, or Indiana, as they were not moved from their original dates on this website. There has been no nationwide polling in the past month, but if we presume no changes, Biden leads with 86% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,536, Sanders: 1,016, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 22

My predictions for the post-competitive primaries have been relatively good, being accurate in both Ohio and Kansas. Only Nebraska, Oregon, and Hawaii vote in the remainder of May, after which Super Junesday takes place on June 2nd. I believe I will update before then to adjust some assumptions I've made so far. The only change in this update is Hawaii, which can be edited once again. In Hawaii, Biden: 63%, Sanders: 37%. Therefore, Hawaii is Solid Biden. In nationwide polling, presumably, Biden leads with 82% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,445, Sanders: 993, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 21

Bernie Sanders finally ended his campaign today. I must say that I admire the fact that he waited until after the Wisconsin primary in order to help the Democratic candidate for the state Supreme Court, Jill Karofsky. Since Biden is the only candidate running, he is now definitively the presumptive nominee. As a result, this will likely be my last prediction for the 2020 Democratic nomination. For the April 10th primary: In Alaska, Biden 55%, Sanders 44%. For the April 17th primary: In Wyoming, Biden 59%, Sanders 40%. For the April 26th primary: In Puerto Rico, Biden 63%, Sanders 32%. For the April 28th primary: In Ohio, Biden 71%, Sanders 25%. For the May 2nd primaries: In Kansas, Biden 71%, Sanders 28%. For the May 12th primary: In Nebraska, Biden 67%, Sanders 28%. For the May 19th primaries: In Georgia, Biden: 76%, Sanders 21%. In Oregon, Biden 68%, Sanders 29%. For the May 22nd primary: In Hawaii, Biden 63%, Sanders 36%. For Super Junesday on June 2nd: In Pennsylvania: Biden 75%, Sanders 23%. In New Jersey, Biden 71%, Sanders 27%. In Maryland, Biden 76%, Sanders 23%. In Indiana, Biden 63%, Sanders 24%. In Connecticut, Biden 70%, Sanders 27%. In New Mexico, Biden 64%, Sanders 33%. In Rhode Island, Biden 68%, Sanders 29%. In Delaware, Biden 76%, Sanders 22%. In the District of Columbia, Biden 79%, Sanders 20%. In Montana, Biden 69%, Sanders 26%. In South Dakota, Biden 70%, Sanders 28%. For the June 9th primary: In West Virginia, Biden 71%, Sanders 24%. For the June 20th primary: In Louisiana, Biden 81%, Sanders 16%. For the June 23rd primaries: In New York, Biden 64%, Sanders 24%. In Kentucky, Biden 72%, Sanders 23%. As a result, Alaska and Wyoming are rated Lean Biden, and all other remaining states are rated Solid Biden. Note that I cannot change the rating for Hawaii, as it was not moved from its original date of April 4th on this website. In nationwide polling, presumably, Biden leads with 86% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,283, Sanders: 951, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 20

In the original primary schedule, Hawaii, Alaska, and Wisconsin were supposed to vote on April 4th. However, due to COVID-19, Hawaii postponed to May 22nd, Alaska postponed to April 10th, and Wyoming postponed to April 17th. However, they are still listed as voting on April 4th on this site. As a result, I will not be able to alter my predictions, unless if they are brought back to the land of the living. What is happening in Wisconsin, meanwhile, a question mark. There will be sparse in-person voting tomorrow, as the Republican legislature refused to stop in-person voting, likely due to the Wisconsin Supreme Court election due to take place concurrently with the primary. I personally think this is just putting voters in danger for no real reason other than for pure partisan reasons, especially by Speaker Robin Vos. Gov. Tony Evers tried to move the primary to June, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court overruled him. Absentee ballots will be accepted if they arrive by April 13th. However, the U.S. Supreme Court denied the acceptance of late absentee ballots. As a result, Wisconsin and Alaska vote this week, on April 7th and 10th, respectively. In Wisconsin, Biden: 58%, Sanders: 39%. In Alaska, Biden: 55%, Sanders: 44%. As a result of this, both Wisconsin and Alaska are Lean Biden. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 61%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 39%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,227, Sanders: 923, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 19

Not much has changed since last week, except for the dates of several primaries. The Hawaii primary, which was the next one scheduled, was postponed to May 22nd. As a result, the next scheduled primary is in Wisconsin, which votes on April 7th. It seems like Wisconsin, as many other states this year, will be an all-mail-voting state. In Wisconsin, Biden: 58%, Sanders: 40%. As a result of this, Wisconsin is Lean Biden. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 60%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 40%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,227, Sanders: 923, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 18

With many states postponing their elections, it is difficult to determine when the next primary will be. As a result, I decided to make predictions for all the remaining primaries and caucuses. Biden swept all states on Regular-Sized Tuesday, as expected, which catapulted him to a 300-delegate lead. The one real hope Sanders had was to win Arizona with the help of Latino voters, as he did in Nevada, but this did not come to pass. Sanders would need to win 64% of the remaining delegates to win, which is an extremely steep climb. I really don't think there's a realistic path to victory for Sanders at this point. The next scheduled primaries would have been Hawaii, Alaska, and Wyoming on April 4th, but Alaska and Wyoming cancelled in-person voting today, and extended the mailing period to April 10th and 17th, respectively. As a result, the only primary currently scheduled for April 4th is in Hawaii. In Hawaii, Sanders: 53%, Biden: 46%. As a result of this, Hawaii is a Toss-up. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 60%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 40%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 1,227, Sanders: 923, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 17

Pocket-Sized Tuesday was another very good day for Biden, as Sanders lost the crucial state of Michigan by double-digits, a state he narrowly won against Clinton four years ago. To add to Sanders' woes, Biden also won Idaho, Missouri, and is poised to win Washington, though the state has not been called yet. As a result of these primaries, I am now treating Biden as the presumptive nominee. The one outside chance Sanders had was to beat Biden soundly in yesterday's one-on-one debate, but he did not do this. Tomorrow, I think Sanders needs to win at least one state to remain in the race. If he does not win any of the four states, I think he should drop out. In Ohio, it is hard to tell whether there will be a primary tomorrow at all. Gov. DeWine decided to postpone the primary at the very last minute, but it's unclear whether he has the authority to do that. I do think postponement is a good idea, but I just wish he had done it earlier. Now, both voters and poll workers are confused about what they will do tomorrow. Here are the standings in the Regular-Sized Tuesday states, one day before. In Florida, Biden: 70%, Sanders: 27%. In Illinois, Biden: 62%, Sanders: 35%. In Ohio, Biden: 59%, Sanders: 36%. In Arizona, Biden: 62%, Sanders: 35%. As a result of these standings, Florida, Illinois, and Arizona are Strong Biden, while Ohio is Lean Biden. This is due to the confusion regarding the possible postponement of tomorrow's Ohio primary to June 2nd. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 60%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 37%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 930, Sanders: 773, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 16

Super Tuesday was a massive victory for Biden. I thought it possible for him to win Texas or Minnesota, but Massachusetts and Maine were the real upsets of the night. Their dismal results caused both Bloomberg and Warren to drop out, leaving the race between Biden and Sanders. In the greatest comeback I've ever seen, Biden is now the overwhelming favourite for the nomination, as he has risen far in the polls. I doubt anyone could have predicted such an outcome just two weeks ago, or even one week ago. Michigan is the real battleground tomorrow night, crucial especially for Sanders, though Biden is a heavy favourite. It was a big polling miss in 2016, and Sanders must be hoping for an equally large polling miss this year. It is also surprising to see Biden doing so well in Washington, which was expected to be one of the best states for Sanders. Here are the standings in the Pocket-Sized Tuesday states, one day before. In Michigan, Biden: 61%, Sanders: 37%. In Washington, Biden: 53%, Sanders: 44%. In Missouri, Biden: 62%, Sanders: 35%. In Mississippi, Biden: 72%, Sanders: 25%. In Idaho, Biden: 51%, Sanders: 46%. In North Dakota, Biden: 54%, Sanders: 43%. As a result of these standings, Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri are Strong Biden; North Dakota is Lean Biden; while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 56%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 42%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 711, Sanders: 626, Warren: 78, Bloomberg: 49, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2

Version: 15

What has happened in the last few days is nothing short of remarkable. First, Biden won South Carolina with almost half the vote in a six-candidate race, due to his strength with black voters. Next, Buttigieg dropped out on Sunday, and Klobuchar dropped out today, both endorsing Biden. Logically, most should go to Biden, though some could go to the other candidates as well. Predictions are very hard to make right now as a result. We don't know how many Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters will go to Biden. These predictions are based on the best information currently available, which is poor at best. Here are the standings in the Super Tuesday states, one day before. In California, Sanders: 39%, Biden: 23%, Warren: 17%, Bloomberg: 14%. In Texas, Sanders: 32%, Biden: 30%, Bloomberg: 17%, Warren: 15%. In North Carolina, Biden: 34%, Sanders: 30%, Bloomberg: 20%, Warren: 11%. In Virginia, Biden: 37%, Sanders: 29%, Bloomberg: 18%, Warren: 12%. In Massachusetts, Sanders: 33%, Warren: 27%, Biden: 22%, Bloomberg: 16%. In Minnesota, Sanders: 36%, Biden: 23%, Warren: 18%, Bloomberg: 11%. In Colorado, Sanders: 36%, Biden: 21%, Warren: 17%, Bloomberg: 15%. In Tennessee, Biden: 36%, Sanders: 29%, Bloomberg: 19%, Warren: 10%. In Alabama, Biden: 47%, Sanders: 23%, Bloomberg: 17%, Warren: 9%. In Oklahoma, Biden: 32%, Sanders: 27%, Bloomberg: 23%, Warren: 12%. In Arkansas, Biden: 36%, Sanders: 27%, Bloomberg: 24%, Warren: 10%. In Utah, Sanders: 37%, Bloomberg: 19%, Biden: 18%, Warren: 17%. In Maine, Sanders: 37%, Biden: 24%, Bloomberg: 17%, Warren: 15%. In Vermont, Sanders: 62%, Biden: 14%, Warren: 11%, Bloomberg: 10%. As a result of these standings, Alabama is Strong Biden; Vermont is Strong Sanders; California, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Utah are Lean Sanders; while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Sanders leads with 29%, followed by Mr. Biden at 19%, Mr. Bloomberg at 15%, and Ms. Warren at 13%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Sanders: 60, Biden: 54, Buttigieg: 26, Warren: 8, Klobuchar: 7

Version: 14

Sanders really crushed it in Nevada, winning by an even larger margin than I expected. He seems to have a really strong position with Latino voters, which propelled him to victory. Meanwhile, Biden's strength in Las Vegas gave him second place, which is his best result to date. Perhaps as a result, Biden has really improved his position in South Carolina, which he is very likely to win at this point. I don't know whether it will be able to revive his campaign, however, if he can't win South Carolina convincingly. The day before the South Carolina primary, here are the standings in South Carolina. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In South Carolina, Biden: 38%, Sanders: 22%, Steyer: 15%, Buttigieg: 9%, Warren: 8%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Lean Biden. In nationwide polling, Mr. Sanders leads with 31%, followed by Mr. Biden at 19%, Mr. Bloomberg at 16%, Ms. Warren at 13% and Mr. Buttigieg at 11%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Sanders: 45, Buttigieg: 26, Biden: 15, Warren: 8, Klobuchar: 7

Version: 13

Sanders seems really strong in Nevada, as Buttigieg and Klobuchar rise due to their New Hampshire showing. The day before the Nevada caucuses, here are the standings in the remaining February primary states. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Nevada, Sanders: 32%, Biden: 14%, Buttigieg: 14%, Warren: 13%, Klobuchar: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 26%, Sanders: 23%, Steyer: 17%, Buttigieg: 11%, Warren: 9%. As a result of these standings, Nevada is Lean Sanders, while South Carolina is a Toss-up. In nationwide polling, Mr. Sanders leads with 28%, followed by Mr. Biden at 17%, Mr. Bloomberg at 16%, Ms. Warren at 12% and Mr. Buttigieg at 10%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Buttigieg: 23, Sanders: 21, Warren: 8, Klobuchar: 7, Biden: 6

Version: 12

New Hampshire went about as expected, with Buttigieg making it rather close with Sanders, closer than many people had expected. While Sanders may have won the night, it was Klobuchar who really shone, doubling the vote I was expecting her to get. Warren and Biden, meanwhile, came in a dismal fourth and fifth, respectively. Sanders appears to be on the rise in Nevada, likely due to his strength with Latino voters there. Steyer also seems to be showing some strength in Nevada and South Carolina, though I wonder if he is a bit of a paper tiger. Just a week before the Nevada caucuses, here are the standings in the remaining February primary states. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Nevada, Sanders: 25%, Biden: 19%, Steyer: 17%, Warren: 13%, Buttigieg: 13%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 30%, Sanders: 22%, Steyer: 17%, Warren: 9%, Buttigieg: 9%. As a result of these standings both Nevada and South Carolina are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Sanders leads with 27%, followed by Mr. Biden at 21%, Mr. Bloomberg at 18%, Ms. Warren at 15% and Mr. Buttigieg at 13%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Buttigieg: 23, Sanders: 21, Warren: 8, Klobuchar: 7, Biden: 6

Version: 11

Biden really underperformed in Iowa in a way I wasn't expecting. I knew it might be one of his weaker states, but still, coming in fourth is a really bad omen for his campaign. Meanwhile, New Hampshire looks even worse for him. Buttigieg, on the other hand, seems to have overperformed, while Sanders seems to have narrowly pulled off the victory. In the end, Sanders and Buttigieg could be tied in delegates, but Buttigieg seems to have the edge for now. The reporting issues were really a disaster, though. I don't know why the Iowa Democratic Party bungled this up so badly, but I hope other states can learn the lessons of this debacle. Perhaps it is time to get rid of caucuses altogether. The day before the New Hampshire primary, here are the standings in the remaining February primary states. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 28%, Buttigieg: 24%, Warren: 13%, Biden: 12%, Klobuchar: 12%. In Nevada, Biden: 25%, Sanders: 24%, Warren: 14%, Steyer: 10%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 31%, Sanders: 17%, Steyer: 16%, Warren: 9%, Buttigieg: 6%. As a result of these standings South Carolina is Lean Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 26%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 24%, Ms. Warren at 15%, Mr. Bloomberg at 13% and Mr. Buttigieg at 9%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Buttigieg: 14, Sanders: 12, Warren: 8, Biden: 6, Klobuchar: 1

Version: 10

Just one day before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Sanders: 23%, Buttigieg: 21%, Biden: 20%, Warren: 16%, Klobuchar 9%. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 28%, Biden: 18%, Buttigieg: 16%, Warren: 15%, Klobuchar: 8%. In Nevada, Biden: 28%, Sanders: 24%, Warren: 16%, Steyer: 10%, Buttigieg: 8%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 32%, Sanders: 17%, Steyer: 15%, Warren: 10%, Buttigieg: 5%. As a result of these standings, New Hampshire is Lean Sanders and South Carolina is Lean Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 29%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 24%, Ms. Warren at 17%, Mr. Bloomberg at 9% and Mr. Buttigieg at 8%.

Version: 9

With just one week to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Sanders: 25%, Biden: 24%, Buttigieg: 18%, Warren: 15%. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 27%, Biden: 19%, Buttigieg: 16%, Warren: 15%. In Nevada, Biden: 28%, Sanders: 24%, Warren: 16%, Steyer: 10%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 40%, Sanders: 17%, Warren: 13%, Steyer: 12%, Buttigieg: 6%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Strong Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 30%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 24%, Ms. Warren at 16%, Mr. Bloomberg at 9% and Mr. Buttigieg at 8%. I think it's quite unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 8

With less than two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Biden: 23%, Sanders: 20%, Buttigieg: 19%, Warren: 18%. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 23%, Biden: 21%, Warren: 16%, Buttigieg: 16%. In Nevada, Biden: 28%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 16%, Steyer: 11%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 40%, Sanders: 17%, Warren: 13%, Steyer: 13%, Buttigieg: 6%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Strong Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 30%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 22%, Ms. Warren at 18%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 8%. I think it's quite unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 7

With 19 days to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Sanders: 22%, Biden: 22%, Buttigieg: 21%, Warren: 17%. In New Hampshire, Biden: 25%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 18%, Buttigieg: 14%. In Nevada, Biden: 28%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 17%, Steyer: 11%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 38%, Sanders: 16%, Warren: 13%, Steyer: 12%, Buttigieg: 6%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Strong Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 31%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 22%, Ms. Warren at 19%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 8%. I think it's quite unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state. Mr. Steyer got a couple of good polls in Nevada and South Carolina, though this rise has not been corroborated by other polls yet.

Version: 6

With 25 days to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Sanders: 22%, Buttigieg: 22%, Biden: 21%, Warren: 15%. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 22%, Biden: 21%, Buttigieg: 18%, Warren: 16%. In Nevada, Biden: 31%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 18%, Buttigieg: 8%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 37%, Sanders: 17%, Warren: 15%, Buttigieg: 7%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Strong Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 32%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 21%, Ms. Warren at 18%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 8%. I think it's quite unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 5

With exactly one month to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Buttigieg: 22%, Sanders: 21%, Biden: 20%, Warren: 16%. In New Hampshire, Sanders: 20%, Buttigieg: 20%, Biden: 19%, Warren: 15%. In Nevada, Biden: 32%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 20%, Buttigieg: 8%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 36%, Sanders: 18%, Warren: 16%, Buttigieg: 8%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Lean Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 32%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 21%, Ms. Warren at 17%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 9%. I think it's rather unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 4

With one-and-a-half months to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Buttigieg: 23%, Sanders: 20%, Biden: 19%, Warren: 15%. In New Hampshire, Buttigieg: 21%, Sanders: 21%, Biden: 18%, Warren: 16%. In Nevada, Biden: 31%, Sanders: 23%, Warren: 20%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 36%, Sanders: 18%, Warren: 17%, Buttigieg: 9%. As a result of these standings, South Carolina is Lean Biden, while the remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 30%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 21%, Ms. Warren at 17%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 10%. Remember, however, that 47 days is a long time, and a lot could change. Nevertheless, I think it's rather unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 3

With two months to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. I will make predictions for the Super Tuesday states after South Carolina. In Iowa, Buttigieg: 24%, Warren: 20%, Sanders: 19%, Biden: 17%. In New Hampshire, Buttigieg: 22%, Sanders: 19%, Warren: 18%, Biden: 17%. In Nevada, Biden: 32%, Sanders: 22%, Warren: 21%, Buttigieg: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 43%, Warren: 17%, Sanders: 14%, Buttigieg: 7%. As a result of these standings, Nevada is Lean Biden, and South Carolina is Strong Biden. The remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 29%, followed by Mr. Sanders at 18%, Ms. Warren at 17%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 13%. Remember, however, that 62 days is a long time. Nevertheless, I think it's rather unlikely that anyone outside the top four will win a February state.

Version: 2

With two-and-a-half months to go before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Iowa, Buttigieg: 22%, Warren: 20%, Biden: 18%, Sanders: 18%. In New Hampshire, Warren: 24%, Biden: 21%, Sanders: 20%, Buttigieg: 15%. In Nevada, Biden: 31%, Warren: 22%, Sanders: 21%, Buttigieg: 10%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In South Carolina, Biden: 38%, Warren: 18%, Sanders: 14%, Buttigieg: 7%. Due to this 20 point lead, South Carolina is rated as Strong Biden. The remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 29%, followed by Ms. Warren at 21%, Mr. Sanders at 19%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 9%. Remember, however, that 77 days is a long time.

Version: 1

We are exactly three months from the Iowa caucuses, and exactly one year from the general election. Here are the standings in the first four primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these four primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Iowa, Warren: 26%, Biden: 19%, Buttigieg: 19%, Sanders: 16%. In New Hampshire, Warren: 27%, Biden: 23%, Sanders: 20%, Buttigieg: 9%. In Nevada, Biden: 29%, Warren: 24%, Sanders: 23%, Buttigieg: 4%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, and there haven't been many high quality polls of the state. In South Carolina, Biden: 39%, Warren: 17%, Sanders: 14%, Buttigieg: 4%. Due to this 22 point lead, South Carolina is rated as Strong Biden. The remaining states are Toss-ups. In nationwide polling, Mr. Biden leads with 30%, followed by Ms. Warren at 25%, Mr. Sanders at 18%, and Mr. Buttigieg at 9%. Remember, however, that 92 days is a long time.

Version History

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