I will admit I was probably too hopeful in my previous petementum prediction. Unfortunately for him, I just don't see the super Tuesday states as being favorable enough to him. A significant change from the time of my last prediction is the standing on Warren and Sanders respectively. A few weeks ago Warren was the clear progressive candidate, but now it's a tossup between Sanders and Warren for the progressive vote. The reason for this is because Warren is collapsing, not because Sanders is rising, but i'm not sure why she's collapsing. Lack of airtime? Her debate performance never struck me with any bad moments, but it never struck me with any good ones either. This prediction assumes this progressive tossup race continues and eventually results in Warren dropping out and endorsing Sanders (who I personally think is the stronger candidate) halfway through the race. Biden will win mainly because of this vote splitting. The only way Biden doesn't win is if the progressive vote unifies on one candidate or if Buttigieg wins 4 or more primary states and creates a scenario like the last one I made.