Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	18
Rep	13
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	17
Rep	12
Ind	2
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	0	+3	0	-2	-2	14	1	15	+1
Rep	0	+1	+1	-3	0	-3	11	1	12	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 18 27 45 Republican 13 40 53 Independent 2 0 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
46	29	17

Comments

last map. I really don't have any Idea which seriously flawed candidate will win in VA. They're both scum. I also don't have any Idea about NJ. Kean should win, but that Democrat machine is a huge hurdle, and he doesn't seem to be doing much of anything to get over it. The result is I went with both incumbents. Also with things the way they are in MI I believe there is an outside chance of a shock here, but its only an outside chance. We'll have to see if MI voters are willing to reward the Dems for totally screwing up thier state economy when they actually get in the booth, or whether they want to join the rest of the nation in our thriving economy.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 12

Couple changes. Will do final on thursday or so.

Version: 11

I have finally seen the movement I've been anticipating in MT. Rasmessen's latest has it 46-44 Tester and I now believe Burns will pull it out.

Corker is now leading Ford by a higher margin albeit still within the MOE...nat for long

Cardin and Steele in the latest SUSA poll are tied at 46. As I have said all along, Steele will overcome Cardin and this seat will go GOP.

Races in which I have not seen the anticipated movement toward the GOP incumbents YET but am sure will materialize include OH, PA, and MO. Allbeit it is probobly too late for PA and the gap is too large.

Version: 9

a couple minor changes in confidence rating.

PA and MN to lean

NJ to toss-up

Version: 8

Several new changes:
1.) After watching MTP I have to say Sherrod Brown is a joke. If OH didn't have its problems with Taft this would be a no contest. Dewine will pull it out.
2.) Still rate PA a toss-up but have seen no movement to Santorum. Dem's going to court to block Green will bolster Casey. Still wish to withhold final judgemant, but Santorum needs to see some movement if he's going to get back in it.
3.) Burns campaign is atrocious. Tester is not a good fit for MT, but bad fit or not Burns is doing nothing. Still a toss-up IMHO but had to switch projection. Have to see what they look like next week on MTP.
4.) Moved MN from lean dem to dem toss-up
5.) Still watching WA, may do same there.

Version: 7

Several changes.
As stated earlier, I was giving the GOP challenger time to take advantege of Maria Cantrell ethical problems with relation to the lobiest who owes her money that she has steered gov't contracts too. Washingtonians don't seem to care so I have moved Washington back into the lean column for the Dem's.

Lincoln Chafees primary victory has changed things in RI, I now believe the GOP will retain the seat, although still a toss-up I have switched the prediction for Dem to GOP

It does not appear that Dewines advantage in funding will overcome the GOP's problems in Ohio. Though still possible it now does not appear likely. I will be keeping a close eye on this one; but, I have had to switch my prediction to the Dem's in a toss-up

I still think Steele wins in MD but my confidence in the prediction is SLIGHTLY less. I have changed the confidence level to toss-up. Now that the Dem primary is over, the race bears watching.

I still believe absolutely that Burns will win in MT. He has so far run an atroceous campaign. Because of this I have changed the confidence level to toss-up. I may change it back...still believe Tester is way to liberal for this conservative state.

Version: 1

Really unsure about Chafee, He may win.

Also think Kennedy has chance in Minn.

Stabenow and Cantrel Hang on.

Santorum and Dewine hang on.

Not real sure about Dewine, Ohio's a mess.

Democrats are dreaming about MO and MT...not

Version History

13: 2006-11-04 @ 17:58:09 12: 2006-11-01 @ 21:46:47 11: 2006-10-21 @ 16:35:34 10: 2006-10-13 @ 11:21:20 9: 2006-10-09 @ 14:32:47 8: 2006-10-02 @ 12:19:38 7: 2006-09-17 @ 10:20:07 6: 2006-09-13 @ 09:43:40 5: 2006-09-11 @ 20:55:34 4: 2006-09-08 @ 19:08:59 3: 2006-09-07 @ 23:37:34 2: 2006-09-05 @ 10:00:57 1: 2006-08-31 @ 16:20:34 View Version

Member Comments

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-04 @ 17:58:58

Well, this is my lsat prediction. Have to wait till tues now.

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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 20:17:39

This map is fairly plausible. I think the Dems will either defend MD or win in MT though.

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-04 @ 23:23:27

Not me. But they will both be close. Not so much MT.

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-04 @ 23:42:18

Yeah, you're right. Tester will win by more than recently expected.

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 By: tetanurae (D-WA) - 2006-11-04 @ 23:53:54

I agree with db, Tester will win by a margin of 5-10%.

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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 00:52:12

Momentum is on Burns' side right now. I may have to update my prediction on that race pretty soon.

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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 01:34:39

I have to agree with RfD. MT has gotten close all of a sudden and could be closer than previosuly thought.

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 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-05 @ 02:01:12

MT was hit by a barrage of later RNC commercials. It will be close. Who knows? Burns does have the advantage of historical voting alligences leaning Republican in MT. That's an important factor to consider. Can Tester overcome it? MD could go either way, but for the same reason, a traditionally Democratic state is more likely to break for the Democrat in a close race. Glad you came to your senses in NJ and PA.

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 12:12:22

I've had PA going to Casey for more than 2 wks. Evidintly Your powers of observation are as poor as you progostication abilities. And in case you didn't notice I have it as a toss-up and believe Casey will win even though my gut still says Santorum. I know it would be a "shocker" and it would be one I'd welcome more than any other. In case you havn't read my commentary I in no way am assuming a menendez victory. In fact, I think this will turn out to be one of if not the closest races in the country. Straight toss-up. Tester will not win. He will go down in flames just as the Democrat darling Ford has. What would you say his chances are now libs...I estimate them at ZERO. Have a nice day. Last Edit: 2006-11-05 @ 12:12:50

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-05 @ 14:38:58

Yet another moronic "zero chance" comment. I thought you had gotten past those. Last Edit: 2006-11-05 @ 14:39:16

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 22:10:21

just got the latest from mason dixon on RI...it tied LOL. I may have to switch it back hahahaha

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-05 @ 22:32:46

Who really cares? I have yet to see a major difference between Whitehouse and Chafee besides trade. Even if he wins, I'll bet he'll switch parties if it means a Dem majority.

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-05 @ 22:41:07

Hey, meejer, how's this look: HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-06 @ 08:59:51

looks like fantasy. The dems will not win either house, don't hurt yourself. Chafee won't switch anything, he's not jim jeffords. As Iv'e siad all aong, I'll be the one laughing tues night. Enjoy your fantasy. The brick of reaity is coming.

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 09:21:02

The only "brick" will be the one you throw at your TV when you see Speaker Nancy Pelosi. LOL. Last Edit: 2006-11-06 @ 09:28:00

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-06 @ 10:16:55

We shall see.

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 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-06 @ 11:47:52

Despite all the cheerleading on the right, Steele has not closed the deal in MD. Cardin is still holding a slight lead and in a Democratic state like MD, that translates into a win. TN, I agree, it appears to be in the Republican column. MT, MO and VA are all tossups; however, you can not discount the majority of polls in all three races that show Democrats ahead. Given historical voting patterns leaning Republican, I think MT and VA will be very close and could break either way. Claire has been ahead, slightly, in a number of polls in MO over the past week. Given the neutrality of MO, I would think Ms. McCaskill will win by a hair.

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:39:56

NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! NEW POLL IN VIRGINIA! In Virginia, Webb Leaps Ahead of Allen In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Jim Webb (D) has surged ahead of Sen. George Allen (R-VA) in the last poll of the campaign. Webb leads 52% to 44% among likely voters. GO WEBB! GO WEBB! GO WEBB! GO WEBB! GO WEBB! GO WEBB! Last Edit: 2006-11-06 @ 12:40:25

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:42:02

Unless Osama makes his appearance in the next 20 hours, Dems will get at least a tie in the Senate.

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 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:44:31

Osama Bin Laden ---> Enter Stage Right! That would be too much to handel if OBL showed up on election eve. I would definitely lean towards Webb winning in VA, it is trending that way, but since VA is a Republican state in Senate races, it will be close.

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:44:42

meejer Since you seem to like generic ballots so much now, here's one for you: Democrats Show More Interest in Elections A new Fox News poll gives Democrats a 49% to 36% lead in the generic congressional ballot. In addition, there's more evidence of a motivation gap. "More Democrats (37% ) than Republicans (26%) say they are extremely interested in tomorrow’s elections, and more Democrats (89%) than Republicans (81%) say they plan to vote for their party’s candidate in their district." Oh, but I forgot, FOX News has so much liberal bias! Why don't they just take it straight from the DNC? Unbelievable!

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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:55:37

This race has so many similarities to the Kaine-Kilgore race. The polls, with the exception of the one above, match. Kilgore launched a barrage of negative ads in the last week, just like Allen smeared Webb in the last two weeks. Kilgore was favored for much of the race (though not by much), just like Allen. And lastly, KAINE WON! JUST LIKE WEBB WILL IN 30 HOURS AND 5 MINUTES!

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 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-10 @ 00:30:10

Meejer The GOP was defeated I know it is a tough day for you.

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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-12-04 @ 00:55:44

maybe he'll listen to reason and moderation next time

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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-12-04 @ 17:04:15

The republicans won 3 elections in a row, and the right thinks they will win all the time and that isn't going to happen. Last Edit: 2006-12-04 @ 17:04:38

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