Corrections to percentages (that I had ignored).

data electoralvote.com and this atlas' poll compliations were used.

Two things: Missouri now looks more solidly favorable to democrats than either MT or VA. And in MD, I dismiss survey USA as a probable outlier.

Unless conditions warrant, this is my last prediction.

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addition on 11-05

generic polls were "narrowed," (three cases make a pretty strong case). A "rightward" adjustment of the four closest race will probably be needed tomorrow. Let's wait for the polls, if any will be released tomorrow.
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addition on 11-06

last polls do not justify any changes (if anything, it moves MT out of toss-up, but that's a minor change, and MO back into toss-up, but that's still minor for 24 hr before).

Get out to vote!

Just an update of winning percentages (of very marginally contested states), and switching of MO. The recent polls lend confidence in VA and MO's movement.

I think we've narrowed to only two most toss-up state - MO and VA. If there are no other major movements, then Saturaday should see my last prediction... if it's warranted.

I used this Atlas' data and CHT's averages.

Are the polls trying to scare republicans on halloween? MO and VA seem to lead democrat, but for the sake of continuity, I'll split the difference, MO to Rep, and VA to dem, though it's still essentially toss-up, and the averages of polls released over the last days are essentially 0. VA and MO's general trends are also weighted.

I'm also tempted to call MT back out of toss-up, even though the margin is weak.

I use this Atlas' compilation of polls.

This is just an update of some percentages. Most of the races stayed unremarkably unchanged, except that NJ and MD do not seem as competitive as before, but NJ is still on the edge of competitiveness (i'd say when polls give us margins within 3% or less most of the time). Nonetheless, seeing NJ is on the side of the incumbent party, and baring surprises...

MT (is almost not competitive, save the fact that this is a republican state), MO, TN, and VA are tossups... and they all show a consistent but weak favor towards one side.

Polls suggest the fall-out from Foley is thinning... MO turns less favorable to party change, and margins narrow in MT, TN, VA, MD, and NJ

only 1 major change: Missouri turns democratic. This is a toss-up, just like TN. Both appear very hot. Historical trends would break both for the republicans, but from the polls I've seen, I think the polls for MO has at least temporily broken the trends.

Again, the polls for MD and NJ aren't as favorable for the dems than PA, OH, RI, or MT... which is ironic.

Latest polls even show MT and MD going toss-up! We'll see if this materalizes. In all likelyhood, historical preferences would give MD to one, and MT for another... you decide which is which.

Maybe I haven't read all the polls... but I think it appears very likely that democrats will take the four seats: MT, OH, PA, and RI. These four's polls look more favorable than even MD and NJ's polls.

MO and TN's polls trend in democrats' favor, but those are traditionally republican. I do expect that development in the last two weeks will affect the outcome. Status quo (if nothing were to happen in the next two weeks), however, will not favor democrats in TN and MO... in another words, either they have to campaign hella lot better OR republicans will have to fail horribly. Barring either, I see TN and MO's democratic advantage in polls decaying by election day.

51-47-2 or 50-48-2 seems most likely... I give it 5% that democrats win all four toss ups, 15% that democrats win three of the 4 toss-up, 25% that they win 2 of 4, 35% that they win only 1 (OH), and of course, 15% that they win none of those 4, (last 5% for doing any worst),

In another words, I expect on average, a gain of 4 seats for democrats from my current outlook.

Washington and Nebraska are uncertain by accident. Others are as uncertain as they should be.

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