Final prediction (no changes from previous prediction version)

This is likely to be one of the most partisan elections in the history of the country, possibly up there with 2000. However, I do not feel it will be as close as 2000.

High turnout means this is likely to be a wave election. I'm expecting that wave will side with the Democrats. But it is also possible that Republicans cut their losses to a few seats if the winds of fate side with them.

Webb seems to have a slight edge in Virginia. Montana and Maryland are tied in latest polls. Missouri seems too close to call but momentum seems to be with the Democrats in this race so far. Tennessee seems to be clearly in the GOP column at this point along with Arizona.

Virginia and Missouri could decide which party controls the Senate.

Webb seems to have lost his momentum in VA. New Jersey, Montana and Maryland are apparently in play if new polls are to be believed. It seems like the Democrats might be losing some steam in the final stretch, but time will tell.

Lieberman and Sanders are being considered as Independent candidates for purposes of this map

Pick-ups:

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Tennessee
Montana
Connecticut
Rhode Island

I believe the Democrats are going to do better than most pundits are expecting because the GOP base seems demoralized this time around. Every poll I look at suggests GOP turnout will be much lower than in 2002 and I think it will be enough to tip the tide in their favor. This might change in future days though.

Lieberman and Sanders counted as Independents

Lieberman, Sanders counted as Independents

Predicted (Senatorial) recounts: Tennesse, Virginia

Notes:

-Counting Lieberman as an Independent
-Counting Sanders as Independent
-Strength of Indiana victory is because there is no Democratic candidate for the state


Predicted recounts: Virginia, Tenneesse

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