Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	7
Ind	1
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	33	21

Comments

Last update before the election. I still think there's about a 5% chance Tennessee could go for Ford, but I am not as hopeful as I was even two days ago. Everything else I think is pretty much in line with what all polling is showing.

ON EDIT: Since there's no House calculator, I'm predicting a Dems with 230-240 and Reps with 195-205.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

I haven't changed much since last time, the major change being Connecticut. If Lieberman looses the primary and runs as an independent, I don't think he'll have the smooth sailing that many seem to think, and he'll face a deserved backlash among Democrats, as well as a lack of DSCC money. I put Connecticut as a slim Lamont win in the general simply because he can paint Lieberman as the imperial senator who ignores the will of the people.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	1	86	496	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	16/34	45/68	66.2%	1	86	277	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	1	86	164	T	279
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	6	4	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	4	4	40	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	4	51	T	228
2008 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	14	12	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	18	81	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	97	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	8/52	39/104	37.5%	3	-	110	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	37/49	20/49	57/98	58.2%	5	-	18	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	70	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	5	1	65	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	22/36	56/72	77.8%	3	4	58	T	312
2004 President	46/56	22/56	68/112	60.7%	12	12	1672	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	463/531	283/531	746/1062	70.2%

Links

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