Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:7

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	7
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+7	+1	+8	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-7	-1	-8	7	0	7	-8
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	27	51
Republican	7	40	47
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
45	31	14

Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Brandon W (R-FL) - 2006-11-06 @ 16:58:40

What leads you to believe that Pederson will win?

Last Edit: 2006-11-06 @ 16:59:38

By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:36:16

I think its the results from the absentee ballots favoring the Dem 44% to 40%. I agree that AZ is a long shot but it could be the sleeper race of this election. The Mountain West has been trending Dem in recent years.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:52:18

Pederson is such a lackluster candidate that if he wins I will admit 2006 is indeed a "wave" election.

By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:45:24

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 10:39:23

Hmmm... Absentee ballots breaking that way are interesting. It's just tough to break a historical voting trend in a state.

It is interesting how Democratic Governors are poised to win big in four Mountain States: AZ, NM, CO and even WY. I do see a trend there and it will eventually spill over to national races.

By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:10:32

I agree that Kyl wins. It'll be interesting to see what goes on in the West in 2008 though. With NM, NV, and CO were all very close in 2004 and AZ is trending Dem. Also, all those states went for Clinton at one time or another.

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:25:17

AZ has a bunch of Northeasterns moving out there, that's what is changing the politics. I know a couple of them. They are basically New York Area liberals living in Tucson, AZ. Their voting habits have not changed.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	12/52	43/104	41.3%	1	-	90	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	278	T	465
Aggregate Predictions	62/85	26/85	88/170	51.8%

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