Hey - I live in AZ and went to the rally where Bill Clinton spoke - what a wild crowd! I think if turnout is high the Republicans are toast here. In the House, Hayworth looks like a loser already and Renzi is barely clinging on. Kyl has a slight advantage over Pederson, but the Democrats are energized and the Republicans are divided - I smell upset here in AZ.

I think the Dems will take the Senate by one seat (counting Lieberman). But a few days after the election Lieberman will defect to the Republican party - sending the Senate barely over to the Republicans - and any Democrats who voted for him will be sorry. Too bad he isn't a real Independent. I think it would be nice to a have a few independents in the Senate to bring some new thinking into the mix.

I wish we could map the House - I think the Democrats will pick up Hayworth and Renzi's seats here in Arizona. Hayworth is especially vulnerable.

Gotta feeling...

Republicans are in trouble - too many factors: Bush, Iraq, Corruption in both Houses, Same old 'terrah' line from the administration - wolf might bite, but cry wolf too many times and people get sick of hearing it. Last month I thought GOP would barely hold onto Senate, but now it seems that Democrats have a strong chance of just barely taking control. I would watch Virginia and Tennessee and Mo. I think the race is already over in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls that are out there are disturbing for GOP - in Arizona Kyl is fighting to keep his seat (50/40 last poll) - and he's supposed to be popular and was at 70% in 2000. As for the house, I think it will swing way over to Democrats (very few polls of house - but those I have read show a huge swing)- if the 'stronger' GOP candidates are struggling to stay then what does this tell us? Read the writing on the walls.

 By: Brandon W (R-FL) - 2006-11-06 @ 16:58:40

What leads you to believe that Pederson will win? Last Edit: 2006-11-06 @ 16:59:38

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:36:16

I think its the results from the absentee ballots favoring the Dem 44% to 40%. I agree that AZ is a long shot but it could be the sleeper race of this election. The Mountain West has been trending Dem in recent years.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:52:18

Pederson is such a lackluster candidate that if he wins I will admit 2006 is indeed a "wave" election.

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:45:24

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 10:39:23

Hmmm... Absentee ballots breaking that way are interesting. It's just tough to break a historical voting trend in a state. It is interesting how Democratic Governors are poised to win big in four Mountain States: AZ, NM, CO and even WY. I do see a trend there and it will eventually spill over to national races.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:10:32

I agree that Kyl wins. It'll be interesting to see what goes on in the West in 2008 though. With NM, NV, and CO were all very close in 2004 and AZ is trending Dem. Also, all those states went for Clinton at one time or another.

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:25:17

AZ has a bunch of Northeasterns moving out there, that's what is changing the politics. I know a couple of them. They are basically New York Area liberals living in Tucson, AZ. Their voting habits have not changed.

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