Biggest change is flipping Virginia over to Webb. Webb's lead is not solid but if it lasts through the weekend Allen will lose by a point or two.

Burns still has a shot in Montana, and this will be a very close race. In the end Tester will also squeak through by two points or so.

Missouri is the ultimate nail-biter. McCaskell has a number of things swinging in her favor but I have heard that African-American support for her is lukewarm. That will hurt her most in St. Louis and St. Louis county, where she needs to rack up a sizable majority.

Looks like Ford's promising shot in Tennessee is evaporating. The racial component of Corker's ads appear to be working fairly well. This is unfortunate as Ford would have been forced to be a conservative Democrat in the Senate. Corker has never seen a tax increase he didn't like.

Maryland looks like the strongest chance for a Republican upset now. Ehrlich is pulling even against O'Malley now so there is a small chance of a spillover vote going towards Steele. I still think Cardin will slightly win but it looks like it will be a late night in Maryland of all places.

If it were not for Maryland, Missouri, and Virginia I would say this is my final prediction for the Senate races. Those three states continually keep me guessing so I will see how I feel about things on Monday.

I am having trouble making heads or tails out of the Missouri race. It appears to be all over the place.

Tennessee looks like it will go with Corker. Ford's recent stumbles will sit uneasy with many Tennesseeans. Too bad to. Ford would have made an excellent Senator.

For the next two weeks, I plan on paying close attention to Maryland and New Jersey. Republicans still have a decent shot in those two states.

I may eat crow on this projection, but I am beginning to feel that the Democrat Wave of the summer and early fall is beginning to subside. Plus, Rove and GOTV are planning on using Tennessee and especially Missouri as a fail safe against Democrats taking the Senate. In addition, Steele is getting more news coverage which I believe will help his campaign. I am still going for Cardin in that one, but it will be a much slimmer margin than most are predicting.

I am trying to avoid doing some work so I figured I will update my Senate map. I mostly use RCP averages for my predictions.

Arizona: Surprisingly Kyl has not been polling as well as he should. He should not have any re-election problems, but he is still in the lean Republican column.

Connecticut: I should have strong confidence in a Lieberman victory here. The polling is consistent with maintaining a strong confidence level in Lieberman. My gut told me not to change it for some reason. Still predicting independant victory, but its still in the lean column.

Hawaii: Changed Akaka's victory % down to above 50%. His strong primary challenge may have weakened him.

Indiana: Does Dick Lugar still believe in a national sales tax?

Maryland: Changed to lean Democrat. Cardin is consistently polling 9 points ahead of Steele.

Michigan: Predicting Stabenow victory by greater than 50%.

Minnesota: Klobuchar victory greater than 50%. The race that was supposed to be competitive this year just never really played out.

Missouri: A true and complete TIE. I am completely clueless as to how this race will play out. I am predicting a slight Democrat vicotry.

Montana: Changed to lean Dem from tossup. Tester is consistently doing very well.

New Jersey: Another see-saw race like Missouri. Menendez now has a tiny advantage over Kean. This is another good race to watch.

Ohio: I am tempted to change from lean dem to tossup. Given the problems Republicans are having in Ohio right now, I decided to stick with lean Dem confidence level here.

Pennsylvania: Casey should be doing better than he is doing. He is only running about 9% better than Santorum. Until Casey gets his act together, this is still a lean Dem race.

Rhode Island: Changed from lean Dem to strong Dem. Chafee's primary fight seems to have exhausted him.

Tennessee: Still a complete tossup. I am hesitant to predict a Ford victory given that we are talking about Tennessee. However, Ford is running just 1.3% ahead of Corker. In my book, thats pretty good for a Democrat in Tennessee.

Virginia: I doubt Allen's stock problems will hurt him. Regardless, these revelations make me think this race is still a tossup. I am very curious to see if Virginians are getting tired of Allen's antics.

Washington: I am still staying lean Dem as Cantwell is having trouble pulling out a larger consistent lead over McGavick.

Finally, Chicago Bears are 5-0. First time since 1986! Go Bears!

Not too many changes here. Just moved RI to the lean dem column and Maryland to tossup. Also, I am now thinking that Hillary Clinton will win by more than 60%

Cantwell seems to be doing pretty good so I moved Washington over to lean Dem. Rhode Island is back to toss-up as I want to see how the primary turns out. New Jersey is all over the place so that will probably remain a toss-up until election. Nevada is probably lean Republican however I expect that race to tighten up a bit. Last but not least, functioning solely off of gut instinct, Ford will be the upset in Tennessee.

Tennessee is now back on the Dem pickup list.
http://haroldfordjr2006.blogspot.com/2006/08/breaking-big-news-ford-leads-in-new.html

I am fully aware this poll is biased. However, any positive movement for Ford will help in in the long run. Plus, if he and Gov. Bredesen link up and campaign together, they might make a dynamic Democrat duo that Tennesseans would like.

Plus, I have seen a few polls showing Allen only beating Webb by two or three points. While I am sure this is just a backlash from his comments, I think it shows that Allen might be beatable in VA.

Ok this Vermont thing is getting a little crazy

Sanders running as a Dem? Easy pick up for the Democrats

After seeing Joe Lieberman get 48% in the primary, I now believe that he is the likely general election winner with more than 40% as an independant. Furthermore, I switched Nevada and Tennessee back to the Repub side, I still want to see more polling data on those two. I also moved Washington into the tossup column as that race appears to be heating up a bit.

Lieberman is doing less well than I had expected in his Primary fight. If the voting trend continues as it is, I may have to change Connecticut from slight Independant to slight Democrat. I will have to wait until Weds. until I see the final numbers.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:39:27

Here it is, my last prediction. *sigh* With the volatility going right now I am having trouble in picking confidence in most races. Republicans are closing the gaps but I feel it will be just like Gerald Ford's 1976 re-election and Hubert Humphrey's 1968 election, where they closed the gap considerably, almost won, but didn't get enough votes to squeeze by. Republican GOTV is in high force, I already received two phone calls tonight from Republicans to remind me to vote. And I live in "liberal" Illinois. I am least confident about the Missouri race. McCaskill is having trouble mobilizing her base in urban St. Louis and Kansas City. That being said, I am predicting she will win by a hair with moderate and independant votes.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:46:30

Safe Dem in VA. I'm not willing to take that plunge but power to you.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:48:21

I am using the Kaine-Kilgore model for that race at the moment. I maybe proven wrong. Either way, I don't care much for either candidate in VA.

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:44:57

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 02:07:36

If Democrats win the House, they will probably only win about 20 seats. And I am being very liberal about that estimate. This is not a "wave" election. This is an election mainly focused on local issues and a number of Republicans are carrying negative baggage right now. Democrats can win the Senate, but only by a one seat margin at most. If Democrats win the Senate, watch out for 2008. Their best hopes for a pickup is Wayne Allard's seat in Colorado at the moment. Plus they will be defending a number of conservative house districts. Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 02:08:39

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:08:53

I know its jumping the gun buts here's my hot races to watch in 2008. I think the Dems are actually in good shape to pick up some seats in 2008. They only have 11 to defend and about half are in safe Dem states. Also, if they run a strong pres. campaign there could be some good coattails to ride. Democratic targets: If Pete Domenici (R-NM) retires that could be a big target for the Dems. Even if he doesn't he only netted 51% in his last election so this race could still be very competitive. Norm Coleman (R-MN) looks like another attractive Dem target. Judging by his history in the Senate he could be construed as too conservative for a traditionally Dem state. Even though MN has been trending Rep (I think) its still just left of center and Coleman's record is fairly conservative. Also there is the revenge factor since Coleman left the DFL and went on to defeat former VP Walter Mondale for his current seat. Susan Collins (R-ME) could get into trouble b/c she promised not to run for a third consecutive term back in '96 when she was first elected. It'll be interesting to see if her popularity remains the same when she breaks that promise. Although John Warner (R-VA) will be 81 in 2008 and is one of the most likely retirees. With the demographic changes in northern VA this could be a competitive race especially by 2008. A win for Webb in 2006 could set the stage for another Dem win in 2008 or a Webb loss would provide Dems with a ready made candidate next time around. With the Other VA Warner out of the presidential race he could also pose a threat. Republican targets: Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) may retire and provide a competitive race in WV where Bush cruised to easy victores. Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 04:17:41

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:59:50

The Minnesota race in 2008 might be a tossup, depending on who the Dems run. Virginia is difficult since John Warner will win even at 81 or whatever age he is.. He is a great Senator. Furthermore, Rockefeller is a safe Democrat seat. Unless a really crappy Democrat runs in his place. Last, Republicans have proven true that they do not believe in term limits. Look at the number of 1994 Republicans who are running for re-election this year that promised they would not serve more than 12 years. So many hypocrites.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 14:32:44

FBI Investigating Va. Voter Calls Nov 07 2:15 PM US/Eastern By ZINIE CHEN SAMPSON Associated Press Writer RICHMOND, Va. The FBI is investigating complaints about attempts to intimidate Virginia voters amid the hard-fought U.S. Senate race between GOP Sen. George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb, the State Board of Elections said Tuesday. Jean Jensen, secretary of the Board of Elections, said her office had forwarded several reports of phone calls to voters apparently aimed at misleading them into not voting or going to the wrong polling place. "If something is going on that worries and alarms voters enough that I'm contacted to look into it, I have a responsibility to do that," she said. A call left for the FBI Tuesday afternoon wasn't immediately returned. Voters in the cities of Covington, Hampton and Colonial Heights and the counties of Accomack, Northampton and Fairfax reported getting deceptive telephone calls in the days before the election informing them that their voting places had changed, when they had not, Jensen said. In Arlington County, resident Timothy Daly said he got a phone message Sunday, said to be from the "Virginia Elections Commission," telling him he was registered to vote in New York so he couldn't vote in Virginia. "If you do show up, you will be charged criminally," said the message, the text of which appeared on Daly's affidavit to the Board of Elections. Lawrence Peter Baumann, a Northampton County resident, said in his affidavit that he got a call on Friday from a woman claiming to be from the Webb campaign. He said he assured her he planned to vote for Webb. "She then told me that I would be voting at West Reed Street. I told her that there was no street by that name and that if she was supposed to be helping Webb, she needed to give correct information," Baumann's affidavit said. "She never gave me the correct precinct and never offered to get back to me with my correct precinct." Chris LaCivita, a senior consultant to the Allen campaign, said the calls weren't originating from the GOP. "And it's sure as heck not coming from the Allen campaign," LaCivita said. "I doubt the validity of them, quite frankly." The Webb campaign said in a statement that the calls were intended to confuse and discourage Virginians from voting. "We've seen this tactic before and it is about time the Republicans learned that it will not work," said Jay B. Myerson, general counsel of the Democratic Party of Virginia. New Mexico Democrats filed similar complaints in court, accusing GOP callers there of providing voters with incorrect information on polling locations in Albuquerque. State District Judge Richard Knowles on Monday, however, refused prohibit Republicans from calling voters. Knowles said such mistakes shouldn't be made but he didn't believe the state's Republican volunteers had made a concerted effort to disenfranchise voters. "I would like both sides to be careful," Knowles warned the parties. "If it continues to happen, if I have to shut down phone banks I will."

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 15:14:45

Yeah, I saw that article. Excuse my language, but this is disgusting, filthy shit on the part of the robocallers.

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