Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:4
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 66)
Comments
11/7/06 FINAL: Dem 51 Rep 49. The Democrats will hold MD and NJ, and squeak by in RI, MT and yes, Virginia (but not TN). Jim Webb will win VA (or, to put it more precisely, George Allen will lose). The cliffhanger tonight willl come in--Missouri. Neither side has generated momentum, but I believe the stem cell debate will flip this to McCaskill. If there is one Republican sleeper, it may be RI: will some Democrats, once inside the voting booth feel a need to "excuse" Chafee? I would like to think not.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 3 11/01/06: Polls show solid Democratic leads in PA and OH; smaller but consistent Dem leads in NJ (D seat), and MT and RI (R seats). That gives the Dems 49 seats, and leaves VA, TN and MO as the only real tossups. As of today, VA and MO would go D, but Corker defeats Ford in TN. 51-49, D. Version: 2 9/14: OH and MT should now be moved to "lean D." NJ is now a tossup. Version: 1 This is based on the following assumptions: 1) Santorum's time is up--he is ripe for the taking unless Casey implodes; (IN and MO, the Democrats have to field the most winnable candidates, AND spend $$; (3) For now, I would not be hopeful about TN, MT or NV--for now.
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