Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:70

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	33	24

Comments

Definite Final Prediction !

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) - 2006-11-08 @ 10:58:49

I hope MT and VA will be called any time soon, then I would have nailed it in my prediction :-)

By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-11-08 @ 11:36:15

Well, Mark you won't be the only one.

I predict that we will have a final outcome in Montana before one in Virginia (Montana seems to be quicker with it's recount than Virginia is). I predict it will still be a squeeker, but as the recount continues Tester, D. keeps increasing his lead. I think sometime this afternoon Burns, R. will reluctantly concede and then go off an take a nap. -:) Hopefully someone will give Burns some milk and cookies before hand. (And hopefully he will get treatment for his snoring. -:))

As far as Virginia the original count is actually not done, yet. The last I checked there are two areas still outstanding on the counting of the votes (latest according to the Virginia state Elections Board):

ISLE OF WIGHT county (92.3% of the precincts counted) where Allen is ahead by 1937 votes.

And FAIRFAX city (85.71 of the precinct counted) where Webb is ahead by 1005 votes.

I would think that ISLE OF WIGHT will go for Allen when all votes are counted, and probably between 1000 to 3000 votes. Which probably won't help him as much, as well as Webb winning in,

FAIRFAX city, by between 1000 to 2000 votes.

And then Allen will probably ask for an automatic recount, and then probably for another recount, and finally both sides calling in an attorney.

And so for this election year, welcome to this country's new Ohio, Florida and Washington state:

VIRGINA!!!

Last Edit: 2006-11-08 @ 11:37:12

By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) - 2006-11-08 @ 12:29:47

Allen won´t find additional 4000 votes in the recount. He may try it, but this will even make him look like a loser more than ever before.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 14:20:45

I am unaware specifically with Virginia law but usually if the outcome of a vote is within 1%, the challenger can request a recount. At this point, I think Allen deserves a recount but I doubt there will be enough votes to change the outcome.

By: DanR (D-NC) - 2006-11-08 @ 17:52:24

Virginia law provides for a recount at the state's expense when the margin is below 1%. If greater than 1%, it is at the candidate's expense. In any case it will only occur if Allen requests it.

Last year we had an Attorney General race decided by 323 votes. I was an observer at the recount in my county. In Virginia the recount is really more like a repeat of the original state canvass. There is no recounting of ballots unless evidence is presented to the court of problems with the original count. There were only ten precincts in which a full recount was ordered in last year's AG recount. And the original count changed less than 30 votes.

If Webb's margin remains aroung 8000 after the full canvass, there is little likelyhood a recount would change things anywhere near that. I would expect that at that point Allen will concede without asking for a recount.

In any event, this one ain't gonna change. Webb has won and we have 51 Democrats in the Senate.

I believe I called this back in April. Pardon me while I go polish my crystal ball.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 22:48:48

Does not look like Allen will contest the race. As long as Lieberman doesn't jump ship, I think the Dems have this one. Personally, I cannot wait until 2008 when Rick Santorum will run for County dog catcher and lose that race as well. He got quite the butt kicking last night. I think I am actually gonna miss that guy. He was always good for a joke or two.

By: gumball machine (L-CA) - 2006-11-21 @ 19:00:53

Yeah Mark Warner 08. You were the only person on Earth to predict the Macaca incident, Mrs. Allen revealing she was Jewish, and that George Allen used the word ni**er, which were the only events that made this race BARELY go for Webb! I'm stiking to my bet that John MCCain will call Hillary Clinton a "heshe", giving her the election by 73 points.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-26 @ 18:03:24

Also, having a Democratic governor for two terms also helps your campaign and if Allen had a republican governor it would of helped him. VA is a moderate to conservative state but with Democratic governors it helps the Democrats a great deal.

Last Edit: 2006-11-26 @ 18:04:06

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	27/35	61/70	87.1%	4	4	37	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	31/36	66/72	91.7%	4	4	1		272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	3	7	1	T	118
2020 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	8	6	392	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	2	14	337	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	18	10	T	293
2018 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	3	1	170	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	22/36	51/72	70.8%	3	3	205	T	372
2016 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	1	1	2	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	20/34	52/68	76.5%	1	1	35	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	1	1	25	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	2	4	8	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	8	0	82	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	23/36	54/72	75.0%	8	0	4	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	5	1	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	48/56	103/112	92.0%	4	1	26	T	760
2012 Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	5	1	20	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	4	1	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	23/52	69/104	66.3%	32	-	8	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	4	2	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	29/37	64/74	86.5%	9	1	6	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	28/37	63/74	85.1%	7	1	11	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	3	0	1	T	103
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	18	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	4	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	2	1	9	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	21/52	9/52	30/104	28.8%	3	-	150	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	13/49	4/49	17/98	17.3%	3	-	169	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	86	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	70	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	52	0	22	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	808/933	591/933	1399/1866	75.0%

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