This is my final-final prediction. California >50 or >60 is bugging me.

Final prediction. I do not think I am winning this puppy.

THIS IS THE YEAR FOR THE INDEPENDENTS OF AMERICA TO MAKE THEIR MARK ON THE ELECTIONS OF AMERICA ON BALLOTS, WE WILL WIN ONE FOR THE EAR GUY (ROSS PEROT THE NEXT JESUS WHO IS EVEN BETTER THAN JESUS)!!!!!!!!

HERE IS HOW IT BREAKS DOWN CLOWNS:

THE GREEN PARTY RUNS A CAMPAIGN ON THE POPULAR ISSUES OF SOCIALIZED HASH DISTRIBUTION AND GIVING HOUSE PETS THE RIGHT TO VOTE. THIS EASILY WINS THE AREA KNOWN AS THE CAT BELT (NY, PA, WV, VA, VT)

THE REFORM PARTY RUNS WINNING THE "BIG EAR STATES" A RING OF STATES RANGING FROM WA, NV, CA, AZ, & UT. IF YOU ARE HIGH ON ACID AND STAND ON YOUR HEAD THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EAR.

KINKY FRIEDMAN WINS TEXAS BY TAKING AWAY RICK PERRY'S HAIR GEL, THE SOURCE OF HIS ELECTORAL POWER

ALAN SCHLESSINGER BUCKS THE NATIONAL TREND BY PULLING OUT A SURPRISE WIN IN CONNECTICUT BECAUSE HE IS A MAN OF THE PEOPLE

THE LIBERTARIANS WIN EVERYWHERE ELSE BY POINTING OUT HOW ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS ARE TOTAL HE-SHES

Too lazy to write comments this time around.

States that can still be considered as notably competitive are indicated in red.

Arizona. Arizona is the Democat's pipe dream, and will probably remain so. Ignoring Arizona State University's more-Republican-than-average result because of their terrible record, we have a series of polls suggesting upper single digits to low double digits. A likely waste of time.

California. The normally Democratic-biased LA Times produces a result on the same day that is 12 points more Republican than Mason-Dixon's. M-D almost looks like the outlier here, but they more match the overall dynamics of the race. Other than pesky independents, it looks like Feinstein is likely heading toward 60 percent. I would not be surprised, though, if she didn't make it, even if I think it is more likely she does.

Connecticut. With Republicans pretty solidly behind Lieberman (the Republican is regularly polling as a weak independent - quite impressive), it looks like he will probably retain his seat. He may even break 50 percent, due primarily to Schlessinger (the Republican) polling so far under 10 percent. I'd put the chances of breaking 50 percent at near half now, but not quite there.

Delaware. The Democrats may break 70 percent here, but probably won't. Not a race.

Florida. There are plenty of places to get scathing analyses of how Katherine Harris has imploded in this race, so I won't bother. That Harris will hover near 40 percent is a testament to how solid the FLGOP base is. Mason-Dixon is great in Florida, and suggests she will proabably even break 40, so D>50 it is. A >60 result wouldn't be surprising, though.

Hawai'i. Among the least polled races for a reason. Despite the incumbent's eh approval ratings following a contentuous primary, it was over before it began. Democratic retain.

Indiana. The Democrats failed to nominate a candidate in Indiana, so Dick Lugar has only a Libertarian to dispatch. The Libertarian will probably keep Lugar in the low 80s.

Maine. Snowe will probably be somewhere in the 60s, although where that is, is unclear.

Maryland. Survey USA, which has been a bit wonky lately, is way out in their lonesome with a GOP +1 result. In September, we have three other polls: Dem +7 (Rasmussen), Dem +11 (Potomac Survey Research - whatever), and Dem +6 (Mason-Dixon). The Rasmussen/Mason-Dixon range sounds probable. I'll keep it on the watchlist due to the +1, but there are greener pastures.

Massachusetts. The nation's least-polled race has seen only one survey, a 52-37 Dem from Suffolk University in February. >60 sounds a lot more probable. Kennedy is an institution, even if "beloved" is a stretch.

Michigan. Lesser-known pollster Market Research Insight (Dem +22) and Dem-biased EPIC/MRI (Dem +20) are a little further out here than Strategic Vision (Dem +7) and SurveyUSA (Dem +13). With two throw-aways, one erratic (SurveyUSA), and one a bit GOP-biased (SV), a Mason-Dixon would be cool. But it's pretty clear that this is a Dem race, somewhere in the low-mid 50s to me. Teetering between a lean and strong.

Minnesota. The major pollsters may not exactly agree here - SurveyUSA gets 8, Mason-Dixon gets 15 - but this couldn't really be much more of a D>50 race.

Mississippi. Sorry, Harry. Lott breaks 60.

Missouri. Pretty much as close to a statistical deadheat as they come. Let's put it this way: currently, I predict that a Libertarian will make for a plurality-only victory, in lieu of predicting either candidate over 50.

Montana. Certainly still competitive, but no longer top-tier. Burns may have done himself in by opening his mouth one too many times.

Nebraska. Looking like a fairly solid D>60.

Nevada. The Republicans here, after a weirdly close Rasmussen result, are flirting with 60 percent.

New Jersey. Another statistical deadheat, with Mason-Dixon receiving deference being good enough to give the tiniest of advantages to the Democrats.

New Mexico. New Mexico will deliver a pair of boring D>60 results.

New York. Clinton's victory certainly will not be in Spitzer's league, but it will be solid nonetheless.

North Dakota. Tied with Massachusetts for the least-polled race, we have only a January Rasmussen poll showing the Republican at 40%. Still, I'm putting this at D>60, even though I may end up regretting it.

Ohio. A very close race here, although the GOP has not been up in ages. With Mason-Dixon within MoE, though, to toss-up we go.

Pennsylvania. For all of the attention devoted to this race, it's basically consisted of Casey faflling predictably after being attacked on predictable issues, and then recovering slightly, in a very predictable way. This has been one of the least interesting races out there, and doesn't even earn a place on the watchlist.

Rhode Island. Extremely close results here. Polling has been very steady, too, although several Democratic results have been pretty strong.

Tennessee. This race wasn't supposed to be competitive, but thanks to screw-ups from the GOP and a stellar Democratic campaign, Ford has come back from the near-dead to actually lead Corker. Nonetheless, it's a very close race, and certainly nowhere near a call.

Texas. Snore. R>60.

Utah. Pete Ashdown will do better than Kerry, but that isn't saying much. Orrin Hatch is just too popular, and Utah is just too Republican. In fact, when those two things are considered, Ashdown is polling pretty darn well.

Vermont. Despite a competitive House race, Vermont will be delivering a huge margin, probably just short of 2-to-1, to a socialist.

Virginia. Mason-Dixon's tie sure looks odd among the other moderate margins, but this is Mason-Dixon. Both candidates have eaten crow recently, although Allen a little moreso. This one might be quite close.

Washington. Even when Washington polls erratically, it polls boring. It's pretty clear that Cantwell is up by around 10, and McGavick has never really come all that close. This race is very close to going strong, but is not quite there yet. There are much better possibilities for the GOP, though.

West Virginia. A predictable, boring D>60.

Wisconsin. Another predictable, boring D>60.

Wyoming. Yet another predictable, boring D>60...just kidding. It's much more exciting than that. It's another predictable, boring R>60 to end the alphabet.

A new SurveyUSA poll out of Virginia shows Allen up 19 percent. Yeah. To strong it goes.

Arizona. Arizona State University, which normally comes up with weird results, gives us a sane 14-point Republican lead. The call of a "weak strong" Republican advantage in this race seems accurate.

California The end of May gave us two polls, an LA Times and a Field Research poll, both giving results suggesting that Feinstein will break 60 percent. In fact, every poll has suggested that. A very boring race.

Connecticut. A weird primary race, perhaps, but fairly consistent polling. Still, though, Quinnipiac comes up with a bigger margin - 54 points - for the Dems than Rasmussen's 38 points only a few days later. Again, don't ask me why I had this at D>50. It's D>60, and maybe D>70, as long as Lieberman is the candidate (despite liberal discontent).

Delaware. A boring race with boring polling to fit. Nothing since mid-February.

Florida. Strategic Vision confirms that Ben Nelson will probably break 60 percent with relative ease.

Hawai'i. Nothing since February. Democrat in a walk.

Indiana. Again, nothing since February. Republican in a walk.

Maine. Rasmussen finds a margin fall for Republican Olympia Snowe of 7 points since Survey USA's May poll. This excited a few staunchly Democratic Maine residents. Assuming this clip keeps up, which it obviously won't, Snowe will fall behind a few weeks after the election.

Maryland. Nothing since April, which is mildly surprising, since this is a vaguely competitive race.

Massachusetts. I previously had Massachusetts at D>70, which I'm adjusting to D>60 per polling. No new polls since February.

Michigan. Strategic Vision shows Democrat Debbie Stabenow up 13 points. That seems about right. Not totally uncompetitive, but not competitive either.

Minnesota. No polls since May. The lack of polling keeps this lean-margin race at toss-up.

Mississippi. Nothing since February. An outside chance of a R>70 result.

Missouri. Research 2000 adds a 6-point Democratic poll, after Rasmussen's May result of GOP +3. Nothing much to say there, although I'm not sure why I didn't change this race to Republican last update. No matter; it would have flipped back anyway.

Montana. The last Montana poll was a May Mason-Dixon with a three-point Democratic margin. D>50 it is.

Nebraska. Nothing new since May.

Nevada. Again, nothing new since May.

New Jersey. A string of Democratic poll results this month, with Quinnipiac, Strategic Vision, Eagleton-Rutgers, and Rasmussen all agreeing to narrow Dem margins. To lean it goes, although it's straddling the line between that and toss-up.

New Mexico. Nothing since March.

New York. I don't know why we needed three new polls this month to tell us that Hillary Clinton will win a solid victory in the 60s, but apparently Quinnipiac, Sienna Research Institute, and Field felt that we did.

North Dakota. It's been since January since we saw a poll here. It would be nice to get a new one, if only to see whether this race will result in the Dems breaking 60 percent.

Ohio. Survey USA said Dem +9 on the 12th; Rasmussen said GOP +7 on the 20th. Huh? The race goes to toss-up Republican, if only because I have no idea what is going on here.

Pennsylvania. June polls show Casey up 9 (Strategic Vision), 18 (Quinnipiac), and 15 (Rasmussen). Back to strong.

Rhode Island. One of this month's three polls shows Democrat Whitehouse leading Republican incumbent Chaffee, and weirdly it isn't the one with the Democrats up in the Gubernatorial race. This is about as deadlocked as a race can get, with the most recent result being Dem +1. A Mason-Dixon to clear things up would be great.

Tennessee. June gives us a GOP +2 from, well, Zogby - the same pollster who regularly gave us ridiculously Dem results out of the state in 2004. Lean GOP it remains.

Texas. Nothing since May.

Utah. We haven't seen any polls out of Utah except for a March result from Dan Jones Polls with Republican Hatch leading Democrat Ashdown 57%-16%. Another poll with fewer undecideds would be welcomed, but it's clear that there is a Republican lead.

Vermont. Sanders might break 70 percent, but it's unclear if he will. No new polls since May.

Virginia. A new Rasmussen poll with only a 10-point Republican lead puts this into the lean category. Someone other than Rasmussen needs to poll this semi-competitive race.

Washington. Rasmussen adds a result of Dem +4 to what is a surprisingly competitive race. I'm keeping this race on lean because of the nature of Washington state polling.

West Virginia. Nothing since April.

Wisconsin. Strategic Vision adds a poll that suggests that Kohl might very well break 70 percent. Nothing to see here.

Wyoming. Nothing since April. Another GOP landslide.

Even while gubernatorial elections look increasingly positive for the Democrats, they just can't get much luck for the senatorial candidates. Two new polls out today, both telling us what we already knew. It's not bad news for the Democrats, but certainly not as good as today's news for Dem governor hopefuls. Polls are also harder to find; only two this update versus six in the gubernatorial relm.

Arizona. Democrat Jim Pederson may be gaining slowly on Kyl, but not in any meaningful way. Kyl is stil up 15 points (per the latest Survey USA) and over 50 percent. This race remains strongly Republican.

Pennsylvania. You can say a lot about the Pennsylvania race, but there's one thing it has going for it - by and large, polling has been pretty darn consistent. The latest indicates that Casey is leading by a reduced margin of 6 to 8 points, and the race remains leaning in his favour against incumbent Republican Rick Santorum.

Connecticut. Depending on what you want to believe, Joe Lieberman either is murdering his Republican opponent by around 65% to 15%, or he is floating around 50% with independent Lowell Weicker in second and Three-Legged Mule (R) in third. Until Weicker declares, it's unclear how much Lieberman will be winning with.

New York. Breaking news from Sienna Research Institute: Hillary Clinton leads in New York. Also, water may contain some quantity of hydrogen. The only notable thing here is that Clinton is under 60 percent, with only 58 percent of voters pledging their support to her. On the other hand, Republican challenger John Spencer (not to be confused with the late West Wing actor) earns a paltry third of the poll vote, making it likely that Senator Clinton will return to Washington on the coattails of a 60+ percent victory.

Pennsylvania. Franklin and Marshall College shows Bob Casey, Jr., still leading Republican incumbent Rick Santorum, but by a reduced margin of six points. If this continues, Casey is in trouble, but the very fact that we are talking about the challenger as the one being in trouble indicates how poorly Santorum is performing in this race.

Rhode Island. Republican incumbent and maverick Lincoln Chaffee leads Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse by three points in this, the same poll to show a Democratic lead in the Governor's race. Rasmussen may have overdone the Democratic lean here, but if this poll is accurate, the race is somewhere in the neighbourhood of a statistical tie. The race is changed to toss-up.

Wisconsin. Democrat Herb Kohl isn't very well-known in Washington, but he's a quiet and inoffensive Senator. Back in his home state of Wisconsin, he's politically well-liked as well as personable and wealthy enough to make up for his relative obscurity. Evidently, Wisconsin voters are perfectly happy to return Kohl, who receives 63 percent in the latest Strategic Vision poll; his unknown opponent receives only a quarter of the vote.

One update this beautiful Monday morning (it's beautiful enough that we can forgive it for being monday), which is moving MA from D>60 to D>70. This is based on conjecture, not approval ratings or polling, which we have too little of.

Two updates for today:

Arizona. Arizona goes to Strong Republican. Apparently, the D+1 poll was for Missouri, not Arizona. This leaves only a range of polls showing fairly big leads for Kyl. As long as he leads don't dip into single digits, it will remain strong.

Ohio. A new Mason-Dixon (!) poll shows DeWine leading Brown by about 11 points. This is a much bigger margin than the recent Rasmussen poll. When in doubt, Mason-Dixon. Ohio goes to Lean Republican.

A little bit of house-cleaning, just like with the gubernatorial predictions. Changes are as follows:

Arizona. Arizona goes from strong and R>60 Republican to lean and R>50. This is on the heels of an Arizona State University poll that shows Kyl leading Pederson, 42%-31%. I never even noticed the April 4th Rasmussen poll with Pederson up one. I have problems with this race. Kyl is very conservative, and his approval ratings could be better. On the other hand, the Rasmussen result showing Pederson leading just seems insane. The ASU result is more likely, but ASU is a schizophrenic pollster if there ever is one. It is very difficult to tell where this race is now, but I would probably say that Kyl leads.

Connecticut. With both independent Lowell Weicker and Three-Legged Mule (R), I doubt that Leiberman will break 60 percent, but it might be close. Changed to D>50.

Michigan. I am not quite sure why I had this at D>40, since every poll has shown a ten-point lead or greater for incumbent Democrat Stabenow. Adjusted to D>50. The lean was already at strong.

Minnesota. A three-point margin is quite close, but with no independent yet announced (to my knowledge), this race goes to D>50. The confidence was strong for some reason; it goes to toss-up.

New Jersey. This is a hard one. Poll results here since February were D+3, R+2, D+4, R+2, R+2, R+7, and D+6. Overall, I'll put this at R>40, although it really is hard to tell what's going on here.

Rhode Island. A new college poll (warning: college polls tend to be unreliable) from a completely unknown college polling group shows a big lead for Chafee. I'll put this on lean for now, although if the margin is as big as this poll suggests, it will soon be strong.

Good news for the Democrats today, although no states are changing position. Four polls, three resulting in changes.

First off, we have Florida. New polling shows Nelson killing Harris, 57-27. That embarassing result corresponds to 68-32. Of course, Nelson's not going to hit 68 percent (Harris would have to eat a few more puppies). Still, it puts it to D>60. That may not be the final result, but Harris is looking very, very weak. The race also goes from lean to strong.

Next up is Nevada, the only non-starter today. Ensign is up 60-27, which equates to 69-31. Again, a rather unlikely result, but we're still seeing a strongly Republican race here. No change from R>60.

California moves to D>60 today following a 59-31 result, which corresponds to 66-34.

Lastly, we have Virginia. The latest poll here shows Allen winning 51-34, or 60-40, against Harris Miller. Alternatively, Allen leads James Webb 50-30, or 63-37. I'm *this* close to putting Virginia to R>60, but I'm inclined to think the race will be slightly closer once the other nominees become a little more known.

The lone update this time around is Wisconsin, which will be somewhere around 60 percent Democratic, but I'm still not sure which side of it.

The latest Gonzales Research poll shows the Democrats up 14 in Maryland. In an open seat race, that's an impressive margin. However, there are too many undecideds here (16%, identical to the February Rasmussen poll, the only other for this race). Both show identical margins - down to the percentage for each candidate, in fact - but I'm reluctant to put strongly Democratic. Maybe Mason-Dixon will chime in. One can only hope (although polls for the grey states first would be nice!).

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