Entering the Home Stretch now...

For now, I'll concede that it looks as if Allen will win Virginia...for now...

Mark Foley is the nail in the GOP's coffin. What massive corruption, bad policy and sheer stupidity and arrogance could not do, a homosexual pedophile could. For better or for worse, say hello to Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid.
AZ and NV- watch these for sudden tightening. Also, keep an eye on VA- as for MO and NJ, I think Mark Foley has made sure that these two races are definitely going to the Dems.

NJ...we'll see
VA, TN- Finally getting interesting
Still holding out to see what happens in HI

Looks like I'm back to reality with this update. However, the next few weeks will be most interesting. Some races I'll be watching (and you should too!):

-Missouri (close race)
-Virginia (How much impact with Allen's gaffe have? We'll see soon)
-Tennessee (One poll had Ford ahead- any indication of things to come?)
-Connecticut (as always)
-Pennsylvania (How low can Casey go while still staying ahead)
-Maryland (If Mfume gets the nod, this race will heat up)
-Hawai'i (Looking forward to this primary)
-Rhode Island (Same story- the primary will determine everything- if Chafee gets it, the race will stay tight)
-Florida (I secretly love Katherine Harris and all her crazy shenanigans- She may not have a shot at winning, but she'll be most entertaining to watch. Case in point: This week, when she said God wanter her to win. I'd love to see her in all of her crazy glory in the Senate- that'd shake things up, but it's not very likely. Oh well.)

Maybe I'm jumping the gun a little, but at this point, I think it looks like Jim Webb just might take out George "Makaka" Allen.

CT- closer than expected. Watch this one.

Next up- Hawai'i Democratic Primary- I think Case can do it...we'll see though.

What a difference a week makes. I have to say that I'm very surprised with what I've seen over the past week in the polls. For better or for worse, it looks like the Dems are picking up a lot of momentum. Even Larry Sabato seems to be saying the same thing- and he's VERY cautious.
As far as the CT goes- it looks like Lieberman's going down, in both the primary and the general (a lot of people seem to be predicting that a primary victory for Lamont will give him a pretty large boost.) In the short-term, I don't think this will mean much, but in the long-term, this will be a DISASTER for the Dems as a national party. From what I've read and seen, it looks like if Lieberman loses, more Dems will start listening to the Dailykos and netroots folks. The party will move furhter to the left, and moderate Dems and Independents will flock to the GOP in 2008 and beyond. Don't believe me? Here's my evidence: John McCain for president in 2008. Right now, he's the GOP front-runner...

It's going to be an interesting 3+ months from here on out. CT is going to be pivotal in determining the Dems' future as a national party- at this point I'm going to predict that Lieberman will lose the primary and win the general as an Independent- which spells bad news for the Dems.
I'm fairly confident about everything else though. Watch MO, NJ and possibly WA for sings of movement though.

I don't understand why the Far-left Democrat extemists are pushing Lieberman to run as an Ind. Simply put: their candidates NEVER win. They are pushing Lieberman further into the waiting arms of the GOP.
While it seems rosy now, Tester will lose in MT, and Menendez will lose in NJ, and Cantwell will come close to losing in WA (the GOP might actually have a shot here.) The Chafee family is a RI institution- although the Dems really might have a shot here.
On the election in general, I predict a pick-up of 1-2 seats for the Dems in an election where they should have taken back both houses of Congress. Maybe this will teach them that the Left-wing Fascists in the Blogosphere will only hurt them in the future- I mean, does anyone remember 2004??? It seems like we find ourselves in exactly the same situation we were in then as we now...a massive Dem pick-up predicted in July, only to see a huge GOP gain in November...

My Confidence Map speaks for itself. Some interesting points though:

Missouri has the potential to be a very interesting race. Assuming no major changes, I predict a close election, tilting towards the Democrats' favor.

Montana has been drifting towards the Democrats for quite some time now (Baucus for Senator in 2002, Schweitzer for Governor in 2004.) Assuming the Democratic nominee is John Morrison, this trend will likely continue. Additionally, Schweitzer lost to Burns in 2000 by the narrowest of margins. Great likelihood of a Democratic pickup.

New Jersey has become increasingly volatile in recent years (i.e. Bush's increased share of the vote in 2004), stemming mainky from residents' dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party Machine. Thomas Kean, the likely Republican nominee would prove a strong challenger to Menendez. However, the state's overall liberal tendencies have caused me to put it in the Democrats' camp, at least for the moment.

Pennsylvania seems like a lock for Casey. Although Santorum is a two-term incumbent, his polling numbers thus far give me great reason to suspect he will soon be out of a job. Similiarly, it seems like Sanders will ascend to take Jefford's seat in Vermont and Cardin will replace Sarbannes in Maryland. The Nelsons, both in Nebraska and Florida seem assured to keep their seats, as does Ensign in Nevada, Kyl in Arizona, Cantwell in Washington, Feinstein in California and Lott in Mississippi.

Ohio seems very iffy. While I sense an overall preference for Dewine, Sherrod Brown might have a shot, depending on how angry Ohio voters are with Governor Taft.

Rhode Island also seems very iffy. While liberal to moderate Republican Senator Chafee seems the likely winner right now, several factors, including a hard primary challenge from conservative Cranston mayor Steven Laffey and a strong challenge from Secretary of State Sheldon Whitehouse, could make me think twice about this one. Also, I would not rule out a party switch on Chafee's part to either Independent status or to the Democrats.

While Tennessee seems likely to go be retained by the GOP, don't rule out Rep. Harold Ford just yet. He seems like he has real star power as a young upstart reformer in a bad year for the Republicans. Keep an eye on this one.

Lugar is a lock for Indiana, as is Stabenow for Michigan, Byrd for West Virginia, Allen for Viriginia, Carper for Delaware, Lieberman for Connecticut, Clinton for New York, Collins for Maine, Hutchison for Texas, Conrad for North Dakota, Kohl for Wisconsin and Bingaman for New Mexico.

• View michaelfh Gubernatorial Predictions
• View michaelfh Senatorial Endorsements
• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Senatorial Prediction Home
• Update My 2006 Senatorial Prediction Map