Decided to go with the Jeff Greenfield model of OH, RI, PA and RI and then targetting MO or TN and to complete the 6 pack defeating Jon Kyl. VA is too conserv for Dems to win at this time. Final version until September. The war in Iraq is going to have a negative impact on the president.

The people in Iraq will are against this war and will vote like we are losing. Final version untl September.

Decided to shift OH> 50 because Zogby and Survey USA is showing a healthy lead for Brown. Decided to move MO<50 because eventhough Claire is ahead in one poll she is behind in Zogby. Decided to put Va back to tossup because Bush is at 40% in the state. Moved NJ to lean Dem because Menendez is showing some breakaway and moved MN to tossup because you can never tell with MN.

Whitehouse in lead now, put Whitehouse in front and took OH and put it Republican.

Put NJ as Dem lean due to the Quinnepiac poll. I believe if the current status remain the same, the Republicans later on are not going to contest it as the trend continue. They will have a candidate, but won't spend as much money on the race.

New poll numbers done by Field changes Washington to >50% for Maria Cantwell.

Saw a new Field poll and it has Brown at 45% approaching 50 so I am moving it to 50%. Eventhough Tester will be the nominee and he isn't at 50% yet, he will wind up with 50%.

There is an outside chance that we can win VA.

Put back Minnesota in the toss up column, that state is unpredictable. Also, changed OH to under 50% for Sherrod Brown, its going to be a closer election I previously thought. So, all of the battleground Senate races are under 50% except for MT and PA where the Dems are leading by comfortable margins.

Changed MT to toss up again and changed Minnesota to Dem lean. The ARG has given me great reason to change the state to lean because Knoblocker has an 8pt. lead. Changed MT to toss up because of Mason Dixon poll showing only a 6 pt race. But leaving TN unchanged because control of the Senate rest with that state.

I think AZ will fall into GOP hands. It is now up to TN. For a Dem takeover.

AZ is still in the toss up category because the latest Rocky Mnt poll has it a 5 pt race. Moved NJ back into Dem territory.

Both DeWine and Talent's approval numbers are under 50%, Talent 48-41% and DeWine 46%-43% so they are very much in trouble of losing.

It seems that in another poll I found Claire is tied with Talent at 46 so I am going to change the race. I looked at the winepek encyclopedia and it says that Dems are favored to pick OH off by 51%.

If the Dems pick up 4 seats they can filibuster a lot of judicial nominees without the GOP being able to change the rules. This is where it stood before the 2004 election, and the GOP couldn't do anything. But Bush can do recess appointments except in cases of Supreme crt nominees but when they come up with renewel they won't fly.

I think that we will have to wait until a new poll comes out on the other senate elections, MO is too close to call, but because of the 2004 election results I am leaving it republican. And I am putting OH dem because it is more or less a Moderate state with a leftward tilt.

What is going to influence these elecions especially in Oh with Rob Ney and his indirect influence on Mike DeWine in the Abrahof Scandel. I think that if the grand jury doesn't file felony misdemenor charges, I think the very least, they should file contempt of court charges on Karl Rove, misdermenor.

We need seven more users to put OH in the dem column come on.

DeWine and Talent has trailed in recent polls and so I think that they will continue. But for now I think it will only be 5.

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