PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - demboy73 (D-AUS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:1

Prediction Map
demboy73 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
demboy73 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
543321
piepiepie

Comments

Line ball Senate.
One which will be very hard for the Republicans to govern.
This is what you get for bad governance.
Lying, spin, scandals, hypocricy, war, failure, deaths.
The elections in 2008 will deliver a clear majority to the Democrats.


Member Comments

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) - 2006-11-06 @ 07:53:52

The House is another story.
My predictions from memory are

Dems 243
Rep 198

Big swing on!
Will make the senate look very pale in comparison.

Many moderate Republicans to loose their seats which will leave the party even more right wing & unable to connect with mainstream America.
They have played one too many wedges & it's about to come back in spades.
prediction Map

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:39:48

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I). prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:22:14

I think any prediction with the Dems having more than 230 seats is stretching it.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 05:01:38

This is far from a wave election. Dems might pick up 20 seats, but I would be surprised if it is more than that. prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) - 2006-11-07 @ 07:17:02

I think it's going to be a wave.
The Reps will certainly loose the House.
& will be very close in the Senate.
Reps will definitely loose Ohio, Pennsylvania, & Rhode Island.
Dems will loose Connecticut to Republican Joe.
& I think the Dems will get over in Missouri.
Virginia seems to be increasingly positive.
Not sure about Montana.
Tennessee is a write off I think unfortuantely, as is Arizona.
Don't know why the Dems didn't put up a stronger candidate in Maine - a fairly blue state.
As no matter how moderate Snowe is she is still a vote for Bush!
prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) - 2006-11-07 @ 07:31:43

So who is Joe Lieberman going to support if it's a tie?
After the way he's been treated by the Dems it will be interesting!
I wouldn't vote for him as he is too close to the Reps positions however I think he probably should have been treated better by the organisation.
But that's democracy.
prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 10:35:03

Lieberman has said he will vote for a Democratic leader of the Senate.prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:07:21

demboy said, "Don't know why the Dems didn't put up a stronger candidate in Maine - a fairly blue state. As no matter how moderate Snowe is she is still a vote for Bush!"

The reason is that she has popularity ratings around or above 70%. No one is going to stand a chance against that kind of popularity.
prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 16:28:53

Snowe is the most popular Senator in the Senate. How can she lose? She also is a Republican moderate who often stands up to Bush. prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 20:53:59

Its a bit premature, but it looks like this will not be as good of a night for the Democrats as previously expected. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-08 @ 04:10:20

8 hours later its looking much better for them. CNN still has not declared MT or VA but Webb and Tester currently are in the lead. Webb's lead looks most likely to stand at this point. In MT only 82% of precincts have reported so that one could still change.

CNN has called 226 seats for the Dems and 191 for the Republicans. They still haven't called the following House races CT-2, PA-6, PA-8, OH-2, OH-15, MI-9, NC-8, GA-8, GA-12, NE-2, TX-23, NM-1, CO-4, WY-AL, ID-1, WA-8, and CA-11.

I'm kinda perplexed by MI-9 and TX-23 since these races show Reps with commanding leads. I'm curious if there has to be a runoff in TX-23 due to the unusual circumstances regarding redistricting and the fact that Bonilla has only netted a plurality.
prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 04:31:02

I am very much impressed that Democrats have won second and third tier races while Republicans are doing fairly well in first tier races. Again, evidence that pundits are often wrong. However Virginia will be subject to a recount and Montana is still very much in doubt. Very interesting election. prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-11-08 @ 11:59:42

Well, CNN is now up to 228 D 195 R and 12 U (Undecided).

If current trends hold, I would say by the end of the week (maybe Thursday morning at the earliest) the new house will be:

232 D 200 R 3 U; with one of those being LA, 2nd which will obviously stay Democratic (we just don't know which one). By current trends I'd give out the following:

CT, 2nd to challenger Courtney, D. although he is only 170 votes ahead of Simmons, R.

PA, 6th to incumbent Gerlach, R. (Sorry Lois Murphy, D. fans looks as though she will just miss out, yet again).

PA, 8th to the other Murphy challenger, Patrick J. Murphy, D. over incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick, R. (P. J. Murphy is ahead by 1521 votes).

GA, 8th to incumbent Marshall, D. who is ahead of Collins, R. 80,401 to 78,719.

GA, 12th to incumbent Barrow, D. who is ahead of Burns, R. 69,991 to 66,604.

OH, 2nd to incumbent Schmidt, R. over challenger Wulsin, D. (forgetting the vote totals; and what were the voters in that district thinking -- well, I guess they might get that nuclear power plant Schmidt wants in that district, UGH!)

OH, 15th to incumbent Pryce, R. over challenger Kilroy, D. (of course Pryce's power has been curtailed by the Democrats takeover; again forgetting the vote totals).

NM, 1st to incumbent Wilson, R. at 100,027 over challenger Madrid, D. at 98,724.

There is an automatic recount going on in NC, 8th. Where incumbent Hayes, R. is ahead of challenger Kissell, D. by only 468 votes (I would still give this to Hayes, R. barely just because of how the votes are lining up).

WY, 1st where incumbent Cubin, R. is ahead of challenger Trauner, D. 91,828 to 91,006 with 99% of the vote. Would give this to Cubin, R. though.

Than the three other seats left undecided will probably shakedown in this manner:

LA, 2nd, again a Democratic hold no matter which one wins on the December 9th runoff. I so hope it will be Karen R. Carter, D. over that awful and criminal and ethically challenged William Jefferson, D.

TX, 23rd (A December runoff), incumbent Bonilla, R. was ahead of former Congressman Ciro D. Rodriguez, D. 53,374 (48%) to 22,756 (21%). I would say that this runoff will depend on how much Rodriguez can unite his party and who picks up the endorsement of independents. This could get Democrats yet another seat, although in current trends this would have to go to Bonilla and the GOP.

WA, 8th, where only about 31% of the precincts have been counted, and where incumbent Reichert, R. is ahead of challenger Darcy Burner, D. 61,921 to 59,268 or 2653 votes.

By what CNN is posting, so far 21 Republican incumbents were defeated, the following:

Hayworth, R.-AZ; Pombo, R.-CA; N. L. Johnson, R. - CT; Foley, R. -FL; Shaw, R.-FL; Chocola, R.-IN; Hostettler, R.-IN; Sodrel, R.-IN; Leach, R.-IA; Ryun, R.-KS (that's the most surprising of the outcomes to me); Northup, R.-KY; Gutknecht, R.-MN; Bradley, R.-NH (another surprise, considering that New Hampshire's House delegations will be entirely new, and that the Democratic leadership of the House was never convinced that Shea-Porter could knock off Bradley); Bass, R.-NH; Kelly, R.-NY; Sweeney, R.-NY; Taylor, R.-NC; Hart, R.-PA; Weldon, R.-PA; Fitzpatrick, R.-PA and Sherwood, R.-PA.



Last Edit: 2006-11-08 @ 12:05:15
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 588
P 2016 President
P 2012 President 53/56 37/56 90/112 80.4% pie 1 150 489T760
P 2010 Senate 36/37 23/37 59/74 79.7% pie 5 1 63T456
P 2008 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 45 0 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 14/33 47/66 71.2% pie 5 1 204T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 21/52 58/104 55.8% pie 20 - 52T271
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 1 65T465
P 2004 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 9 3 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 312/334 203/334 515/668 77.1% pie


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