Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-03 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	33	24

Comments

Very little to change since I posted my prediction back in April.

Cleaned up some of the percentages.

Changed CT to Independent, although that makes no difference in terms of control of the Senate.

Tennessee remains a tossup, but I flipped it to Corker. I hope I am being unduly pessimistic and I may change that before election day. Ford has run an excellent campaign and may yet pull it out.

In my home state of Virginia I picked Webb to win back in the Spring before the primary. When he had no money and supposedly no chance. Four days out I like his chances quite a lot.

At this point I think it all is going to come down to Missouri. That one is close and hard to get a firm handle on. I think the edge goes to McCaskill. It is hard to count Talent out though. He is a disiciplined candidate.

Nothing left except Get Out The Vote efforts and beer at the victory party now.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	2	0	409	T	678
2014 Senate	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	1	160	273	T	382
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	3	31	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	23/33	54/66	81.8%	1	3	40	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	19/37	53/74	71.6%	4	1	167	T	456
2008 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	3	26	100	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	2	49	144	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	2	4	20	T	465
2004 President	53/56	29/56	82/112	73.2%	10	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	372/396	244/396	616/792	77.8%

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