Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:2

Prediction Map

HarryHayfield Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

HarryHayfield Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	10
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+2	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-2	-7	11	3	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
41	30	11

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Based purely on the fact that the Dems score higher in the generic polls than the presidential polls

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%						249
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		1	93	74	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	20/35	52/70	74.3%		1	7	243	T	305
2020 President	54/56	36/56	90/112	80.4%		13	7	392	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	21/35	50/70	71.4%		1	5	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%		1	7	147	T	293
2016 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%		14	0	149	T	678
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%		2	0	72	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	16/36	50/72	69.4%		2	1	217	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	13/36	40/72	55.6%		2	1	241	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%		2	11	98	T	153
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%		18	1	401	T	760
2012 Senate	22/33	6/33	28/66	42.4%		1	267	334	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	2/11	10/22	45.5%		1	30	220		228
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	12/52	53/104	51.0%		48	-	64	T	231
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%		1	33	100	T	106
2010 Senate	27/37	13/37	40/74	54.1%		3	2	391	T	456
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%		3	2	230	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		2	1	41	T	103
2008 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%		22	0	442	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	11/33	41/66	62.1%		2	8	334	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%		1	47	152	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	27/52	8/52	35/104	33.7%		33	-	127	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	15/49	56/98	57.1%		32	-	21	T	235
2007 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%		1	65	155	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	12/33	43/66	65.2%		7	1	328	T	465
2006 Governor	25/36	7/36	32/72	44.4%		3	26	301	T	312
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%		16	1	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	699/834	357/834	1056/1668	63.3%

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