Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-28 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+3	+6	0	0	0	12	0	12	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-3	-3	-6	13	2	15	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	36	54
Republican	15	26	41
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	31	17

Analysis

Smith is getting increasingly desperate, meaning he's probably going to lose.

Barkley is polling increasingly well. I'd put Coleman in the low 40s. This may decrease if Franken continues to be an epic fail candidate and Barkley continues to gain.

Stevens' conviction makes Alaska strong D (I hope).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

I messed up again, damn it.

Version: 2

Hilariously messed up on Mississippi last go.

Version: 1

Generic predictions.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	55	48	T	118
2016 President	44/56	17/56	61/112	54.5%	2	11	643	T	678
2012 Rep Primary	4/52	1/52	5/104	4.8%	5	-	217	T	231
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	3	4	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	7	1	200	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	4	7	172	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	1	7	183	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	24/52	1/52	25/104	24.0%	3	-	177	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	14/49	5/49	19/98	19.4%	2	-	162	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	181/313	87/313	268/626	42.8%

Links

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