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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
Smash255 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Smash255 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
533320
piepiepie

Analysis

Tossup = <5
Lean = 5-10
Strong = >10

Noteables

North Carolina Hagan + 3.7%
Oregon Merkley + 6.8%
Minnesota Fraken + 2.4%
Colorado Udall + 13.8%
New Mexico Udall + 15.2%
New Hampshire Shaheen + 11.7%
Alaska Begich + 17.8%
Virginia Warner + 28.8%

Maine Collins + 8.1%
Georgia Chambliss + 3.1%
McConnell 5.7%
Louisiana Lanreiu + 8.3%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3


Georgia- Awhile back it looked like this was going to be pretty safe for Chambliss. Well things have changed. I still think he holds this seat, but Martin has made it a real close one. Chambliss by 4.

Minnesota- Things have looked like they have changed and changed quickly here. Barkley has emerged as a strong third party challenger who could get close to 20% of the vote. Coleman has started to sink and Fraken has taken a lead in several polls, which I think will hold. Fraken by 3

Oregon. One of the reasons Smith was able to do well in the state for awhile was his ability to perform well (for a Republican) in metro Portland. Those days are pretty much over. Merkley might not be a 1st tier candidate, but he is easily a strong 2nd tier candidate. merkely by 4.

Alaska- When your on trial things are not good. Even if Stevens is victorious and winds up getting off before Election day he isn't coming back to the senate. Too much damage has been done and Palin coattails won't save him. Begich bt 4.

North Carolina- Things look worse and worse for Dole everytime you turn around. Hagan is running a very strong campaign, Dole is running a horrendous one. The state has quickly become a battleground state on the national level, as the metro areas in the state of moved quite a bit towards the Dems (with the help of all the northerners moving down. Hagan by just under 5 (4.9%)

Colorado- 04 mod dem vs mod Rep. 08 liberal Dem vs conservative Rep. This state has moved quite a bit towards the Democrats as well. Both Udall and Schaffer are well established in there base. Araphoe and Jefferson counties in suburban Denver are two of the strongest Dem trending counties in the entire country, have moved in part to the religiosity of the GOP both on a national and state level in Colorado- Schaffer's die hard social conservative views will hurt him badly in this crucial part of the state. Udall by 8

New Hampshire- Sununu is a conservative Republican in a state that is no longer conservative or Republican. The chances that McCain could be helpful here or out the window as he trails by double digits in the last few polls in the state. Shaheen lost in a tight contentious battle in 02 in a very GOP year. This is not a GOP year and in a state which has trended Democratic at a quick pace. Shaheen by 9%


New Meixco- The other Udall. Dominicci is retiring, and its between two Congressman. Democrat Tom Udall and Rep Pearce. Pearce doesn't have a chance in hell, and Udall likely wins Peece's CD (which is more Republican than the state. This is not close, no reason to believe it is. Udall by 17

Virginia- Speaking about blowouts. This one will make NM look like nothing. One Warner is retiring, the other Warner is running. When your opponent is generally known for and well liked for cleaning up the mess you left, its not a good sign for your candidate. Warner by 29.


Version: 2

Doesn't look good for OP

Minnesota- Might be a tad to optimistic here, as Coleman has led in virtually all the polls, but I think Fraken pulls it out narrowly. What pushes Fraken over the edge his Obama coattails, this will be the closest state and my least confident pick, but I think Fraken wins by less than 1 point.

Oregon- Smith is in trouble. The polls have certainly changed here. What I think does Smith in, is metro Portland. This area has generally been friendly to Smith (for a Republican anyway) and his ability to put up stronger numbers than most Republicans in that area is a big reason for his success. However, he is having problems there and an area McCain will get trounced, giving Merkely some coattails. Merkley by 3.

North Carolina- Dole is in trouble, deep trouble. This looked like a state she would win in a tight but comfortable margin, however the Dems have made major gains here. McCain looks like he will win the state, but it will be closer than most people would have though. Hagan gains from increased African American and youth turnout Obama brings. Also migration and other factors which have made metro Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro and Asheville swing left in recent years continues. Hagan by 4.

Alaska- Dems got the strongest candidate they could in Anchorage mayour Begich, Stevens is on trial. Not even Palin coattails will be enough for Srevens to overcome his massive legal woes. Even if he somehow gets away with his crap before Election day too much damage is done. Begich by 7

Colorado- 04 showed a matchup between a moderate Dem in Salazar and a moderate Republican in Coors. Here we have a liberal Democrat in Udall and a conservative Republican in Schaffer. The big change in Co, has been suburban Denver, especially Araphoe and Jefferson counties. Once solid GOP counties, quite simply aren't anymore. Moderate Republicans might appeal to them, but hard right ones such as Schaffer do not. This is an area where Obama will likely be victorious as well. The dynamics of Colorado has changed quite a bit. Also the fact that Udall has a $$ advantage is also a factor. Udall by 8


New Hampshire- This was a close election in 02, won't be as close this tine around. Sununu is too close to Bush and is just too conservative for this leftward moving state. Sununu has dug himself a hole he can't get out of, Shaheen by 9.

New Mexico- Domenicci is retiring and we have a 'battle' beteween Udall and Pearce. The only question is can Udall defeat Pearce in Pearce's own district. My guess would be yes. This is a real lopsided election for an open race in a state which is generally thought of a battleground. Udall by 18

Virginia- speaking about blowouts in an open seats, and hell this one has been generally thought of a GOP state, though its very purple now. John Warner is retiring and we have a battle between two former Governor's. The other Warner and Gilmore. Well to start things off Warner's term was viewed as much better than Gilmore's in fact Warner is generally thought of fixing the messes Gilmore created. Not good news for Gilmore. Warner has shown he can do well in all parts of the state, the numbers we will see out of Northern Virginia in this race are going to be down right mind blowing. This will be a blowout of immense proportions, especially considering that this is an open race. Warner by 27


Version: 1

Least confident pick is Oregon. The strongest Dem candidates have bypassed on this race, and Smith turning against Iraq will help him. However, the turn may have been too late. Oregon has moved quite a bit to the left in recent years, and I predict a solid *though not huge) victory for the Dems on the Presidential nationally. That will result in a rather large dem victory at the top of the ticket that could sink Smith (by about 1-2%).

The same problems Smith faces in Oregon, Collins faces in Maine, and perhaps even more so for Collins, as Maine looks like a more Democratic and liberal state than Oregon and will likely go to the Dem Presidential candidate by a larger margin (though very solid in both cases). However, early polling (though it can change) suggests that Collins has a decent sized lead. Collins also has higher approval ratings and is more liberal as a whole than Smith. This one is in the lean category for now, and has a decent chance of staying that way. However, Iraq is a major wild card. Collins has been a bit more critical of Bush in regards to Iraq, and more hesitant about supporting him, however she has yet to jump ship like her colleague from the state Olympia Snowe. If in future votes she stay on the side of Bush it could cause her problems.

New Hampshire- The state is heavily trending Democratic it will likely go Dem on the Pres level by a large margin. After seeing her lead drop right after she announced Shaheen is back up to a large lead, Sununu's ratings continue to be in the toilet.

Virginia- I don't think any real explanation here is needed. Warner has MASSIVE leads in the polls.

Minnesota- Outside of one poll Coleman's numbers have been steadily dropping, and at this point it doesn't seem to matter who the Dem candidates are, he is facing a bit of trouble, will put up a fight but narrowly lose

New Mexico Udall looks like he will jump in and if he does he wins. The only thing that could stop Udall from jumping in and winning at this point is if Richardson drops his Presidential bid and jumps in, that makes it an even bigger Dem lock.

Colorado- Another Dem trending state, likely to go Dem on the Presidential level. Udall is a bit more liberal than the state as a whole, but Schaffer is a diehard conservative who won't have much appeal outside the immediate GOP base. Udall takes the inner Denver suburbs and wins.

Louisiana- Best thing to happen for Landreiu is Jindal running for Gov & winning. the state has become much more GOP in recent years, but the state party isn't that deep. The GOP also has so much to defend it uses up the resources they have to try to pick this one off.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 32/36 25/36 57/72 79.2% pie 3 4 82T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 14/36 45/72 62.5% pie 2 1 145T
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 1 2 47T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 2 40T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 4 1 86T
P 2010 Governor 37/37 26/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 1 11T
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 16 2 13T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 2 57T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 2 2 3T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 158 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 15 2 20T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 1 44T
P 2004 President 49/56 33/56 82/112 73.2% pie 2 139 1036T
Aggregate Predictions 440/463 315/463 755/926 81.5% pie


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