Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	11
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
47	33	14

Analysis

1 seat shy of a Fillibuster counting the 2 independents.
Though I'd kick LIebermann out of the Democratic caucus for his disloyalty in this campaign.
The obvious states to watch are Minnesota, North Carolina, Gerogia, & Kentucky.
Would love to see a win in Kentucky but think the Rep might sneak through.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	2	147	480	T	684
2016 President
2012 President	53/56	37/56	90/112	80.4%	1	150	489	T	760
2010 Senate	36/37	23/37	59/74	79.7%	5	1	63	T	456
2008 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	45	0	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	14/33	47/66	71.2%	5	1	204	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	21/52	58/104	55.8%	20	-	52	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	1	1	65	T	465
2004 President	54/56	35/56	89/112	79.5%	9	3	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	365/390	238/390	603/780	77.3%

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