Comments History
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hideVersion: 7
Mississippi special: R>50%
Wyoming special: R>60%
Version: 6
Mississippi Special: R>50%
Wyoming Special: R>60%
Version: 5
Mississippi special: R>50% (lean R)
Wyoming special: R>70% (solid R)
Version: 2
ALABAMA: It is clear that Jeff Sessions will easily win reelection.
ALASKA: If the GOP primary voters are smart enough to pick David Cuddy over Stevens, then Alaska leans Republican. If not, it leans Democrat.
ARKANSAS: Unfortunately, no one filed to run against Pryor. Safe Dem.
COLORADO: One of the biggest battlegrounds of 2008. Udall and Schaffer are running neck-to-neck in polls and the race is a tossup.
DELAWARE: Biden, whether Joe or Beau, will win quite easily.
GEORGIA: Chambliss, one of my least favorite GOP senators, will win an easily reelection, although not by immense margins.
IDAHO: Craig has caused a lot of trouble, but at least he won't be on the ballot and conservative Idaho can be relied upon to choose a Republican.
ILLINOIS: Durbin will win reelection.
IOWA: It's pretty much clear that Tom Harkin will be reelected.
KANSAS: Roberts will be safe unless Sebelius decides to run against him, in whcih case Kansas will become more of a tossup (I still think Roberts would be favored, however).
KENTUCKY: Democrats would love to rob Minority Leader McConnell of his seat, but his approval is good and steady and no good Dem contender has arisen.
LOUISIANA: Will be extremely competitive. John Kennedy and Landrieu are pretty close in the two polls that have been released. In the end, I think that the fact that LA is trending Republican and the demographic changes due to Katrina will give Kennedy a victory, although it's far too early to tell.
MAINE: Collins is extremely popular and I doubt Allen can defeat her.
MASSACHUSETTS: Despite Kerry's mediocre approval ratings, it's fairly obvious he'll win again. Ogonowski can score an unusually high percentage for a Republican in MA. He did do well against Tsongas in the special election, for a Republican.
MICHIGAN: Not competitive. Levin will win.
MINNESOTA: Very competitive. Franken is running a good campaign, but he's still tied with Coleman in the polls. I fervently hope Franken looses but as of now the race is a tossup.
MISSISSIPPI: Not competitive. Cochran will be reelected.
MONTANA: I expect Baucus to win reelection quite easily.
NEBRASKA: Safe GOP. Johanns can easily defeat Kleeb.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Will be very competitive. Sununu is closing the gap with Shaheen, but she still has an edge.
NEW JERSEY: Lautenberg has dismal approval ratings and many in his state do not want him to run again. This being New Jersey, however, I think he'll win anyway.
NEW MEXICO: Udall has an edge against both of the registered GOP candidates. Still tossup until further polling, but he definitely has an edge.
NORTH CAROLINA: Dole will likely win reelection, despite mediocre approval ratings. None of the Democrats are strong candidates.
OKLAHOMA: Easy Inhofe win.
OREGON: Smith currently runs ahead of any of the Democrats. The race could get closer, but as of now he is favored.
RHODE ISLAND: I doubt any Republicans will even run against Reed. He has his election assured.
SOUTH CAROLINA: No strong Dem is running against Graham. Easy GOP win.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Johnson seems to be on the road to reelection. It will be extremely hard to run against him. Only Governor Rounds can make this more competitive.
TENNESSEE: No serious Dem contender against Lamar Alexander. GOP win.
TEXAS: Cornyn runs far ahead of Noriega. He could perhaps make it closer, but as of now Cornyn will likely be reelected.
VIRGINIA: Warner is so popular it's as if he were the incumbent. I doubt Gilmore can catch up. Safe Dem.
WEST VIRGINIA: Rockefeller win win again.
WYOMING: Enzi looks headed for victory. It is probable no Democrat even runs against him. In the special election, Barrasso seems headed to a win unless Governor Freudenthal decides to run.
Version: 1
I think 2008 will, unfortunately, give Democrats a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but there are still a lot of tossup races.
ALABAMA: Incumbent Jeff Sessions (R) will probably defeat any Democratic contender. State Senator Vivian Davis Figures appears to be the most probable Democratic contender and an August SurveyUSA poll shows Sessions defeating her by a 22% margin.
ALASKA: This would usually be a safe Republican race, but the corruption of incumbent Ted Stevens, one of the worst GOP senators, will probably make this more competitive than usual. If Steven retires, this is probably a safe GOP seat, but if he runs again, particularly against Mark Begich, it becomes a tossup race.
ARKANSAS: Incumbent Mark Pryor has good approval ratings and he will probably be elected. A run by Mike Huckabee could make this race more interesting, but Pryor would probably beat him.
COLORADO: Will be an extremely competitive race. Even though polls give Mark Udall (D) an advantage over probable Republican candidate Bob Schaffer, if Colorado goes Republican in the presidential election (it probably will), this could help the GOP candidate.
DELAWARE: Joe Biden has shown no signs of wanting to retire and chances are he will win re-election yet again.
GEORGIA: Even though I dislike thim, Saxby Chambliss will probably do well against any Democratic contender.
IDAHO: Some Democrats think the Larry Craig scandal will give them an advantage, but I very much doubt that. Craig won't be the GOP candidate in 2008 and Republicans have large advantages over the probable Democratic candidate, Larry LaRocco.
ILLINOIS: Dick Durbin has his re-election secured.
IOWA: Tom Harkin has acceptable approval ratings and no prominent GOP opponent. He will win re-election.
KANSAS: Incumbent Pat Roberts has good approval ratings and will probably win re-election, unless Governor Kathleen Sebelius runs against him, in which case the race will become much more competitive.
KENTUCKY: Democrats want to unseat Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Despite the Democratic victory in the 2007 gubernatiorial elections and McConnell's mediocre approval ratings, polls show no Democrat with an advantage over McConnell. He will probably win re-election.
LOUISIANA: Mary Landrieu is extremely vulnerable due to Bush and Jindal's large margins of victory. It's still a tossup, though, as not prominent GOP contender has yet arisen.
MAINE: Some believe Susan Collins can be vulnerable in this race, but that is ludicrous. Her approval ratings are extremely high and she still has great popularity among independent voters. All polls give her a good lead over probable Democratic opponent Tom Allen. Her endorsement by Joe Lieberman will help her among independents.
MASSACHUSSETTS: John Kerry has bad approval ratings and most voters do not want him to run again. However, Massachusetts is partisan enough to re-elect Kerry, although by a greatly reduced margin since 2002. The best GOP candidates are Jim Ogonowski and Paul Cellucci, but neither will probably manage to unseat the incumbent.
MICHIGAN: Carl Levin will easily win re-election against any Republican, despite his extremely defeatist attitude regarding Iraq.
MINNESOTA: Norm Coleman is vulnerable, altough polls give him a slight lead over possible Democratic contenders Michael Ciresi and Al Franken.
MISSISSIPPI: A very safe seat for Republicans. Thad Cochran will be re-elected.
MONTANA: Incumbent Max Baucus (D) is safe.
NEBRASKA: Some have tried to interpret Hagel's retirement and the potential Mike Fahey candidacy as indicators that Nebraska will be a tossup in 2008. Nonsense. Even is Fahey, the best positioned Democrat, runs, the Republican contender (fortunately not a RINO anymore) will most likely win.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Although I think it will be a closer race than many think, Shaheen will probably defeat Sununu this time.
NEW JERSEY: Frank Lautenberg has low approval ratings, but nontheless will probably win re-election.
NEW MEXICO: Will be one of the most competitive races. Polls show an extremely tight race between Martin Chavez (D) and Steve Pearce (R).
NORTH CAROLINA: Elizabeth Dole does not have the best approval ratings, but it is unlikely she will loose re-election. All current polls give her victory against any Democratic opponent.
OKLAHOMA: James Inhofe (R) will win re-election.
OREGON: RINO Gordon Smith will have to fight to keep his seat, but polls give him an advantage over Democratic opponents.
RHODE ISLAND: Jack Reed (D) has the safest seat in 2008. I doubt that Republicans will even bother to put out a candidate.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Lindsey Graham will likely be re-elected. He has no serious opposition yet.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Will again be a very close race. I have colored it Democratic because incumbent Tim Johnson has very high approval ratings (close to 70%).
TENNESSEE: Lamar Alexander is popular and will win re-election.
TEXAS: John Cornyn has bad approval ratings, but unless a prominent Democratic opponent appears, he will win re-election.
VIRGINIA: Polls give Mark Warner (D) such a large lead over any Republican this race isn't going to be competitive.
WEST VIRGINIA: Jay Rockefeller has no serious opposition yet and will win re-election.
WYOMING: It is unlikely any Democrat will pose any serious threat to incumbent Mike Enzi.
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