I still don't feel like the GOP is headed for a blood bath in the congressional elections despite the polls and the beltway conventional wisedom. I think a lot of people are mad at government and that includes the Democrats. Pelosi and Reid are as unpopular as Bush. The current do-nothing congress has an approval rating of what, 9%? No the GOP was punished in 2006 already. Having said that I think we'll loose seat simply because the make up of various races poses some serious challenges. But I don't see a Democratic supermajority either.

Here are the seats I still consider safely Republican:

Maine - Susan Collins
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - James Wicker
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch

Every Democratic seat save one is safe this year:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

Of the competitive races I can find little daylight for the GOP, much to my disappointment. However we should be able to keep the Democrats away from 60 seats:

Alaska - I can't believe that we've renominated that currupt loser Ted Stevens. I hope he gets beat, we don't need him in our party. Good riddance I say. Looks like Begich is going to be Alaska's next senator. The Republican party will be better off for it, that's for sure.

New Hampshire - Sununu could still beat Jeanne Shaheen though I believe she is favored to win. McCain may have long enough coatails should he carry the state to affect the race and help the incumbent pull off a last minute win. This is one of the race I will be watching closely tomorrow night.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage and has had it for some time now. The race has shown some signs of tightening lately so there may be some hope in this state. Again its similar to New Hampshire in that we'll have to watch it but I have a feeling that Udall is headed for the Senate.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. The election here almost seems like a formality as opposed to anything else. Gilmore is dead in the water and has been from the beginning. He's just not popular enough to overcome Warner's appeal. I see no way to save this seat and personally I'd cut our loses and put money in more useful places.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is the only beatible Democrat. Unfortunately I think its less and less likely that we will pull off a pick up here. We got the govenorship but we lost the House seat in the special election back in May. We'll have to see what Kennedy can do tomorrow night but I'm not optmistic.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to for quiet sometime have been running neck and neck. Its one of the few places I think we can save ourselves should all go right. But its going to be tough and at the moment I give Udall the edge. I hope I'm wrong. Schaffer could still win and is probably the most likely seat after New Hampshire and Oregon for the GOP to maintain.

Minnesota - Franken is a complete lunitic. He has been involved in many financial scandles and I think that Coleman is favored to win here. His approval ratings are decent and that's good because we'll need all the wins we can get. Since Venture is not getting involved in the race and Franken looks worse day after day I'd say we can hold this seat. Had the Democrats ran a more moderate candidate they may have had a better shot at Coleman's seat but so far I think we keep this one in our column.

North Carolina - This is one seat I did not expect us to have trouble in but here we are. I still firmly believe that Elizabeth Dole will win reelection and hold her seat. I do acknowledge though that Hagan has given her a run for her money. But in the end I just don't see an upset here. However I feel it too competitive to place in the safe column at this time despite my strong belief that Dole will be back in DC come January.

Oregon - Yet another seat I am suprise to see contested but actually I'm not that saddened over. I think that Smith might actually lose tomorrow and I'm sorry to say I'll lose few tears over it. Smith is one of the biggest RINOs in the Senate along with Specter. He makes Collins and Snowe look reasonible at times. So if he goes I think the GOP will be better for it, at least from a conservative point of view. He'd vote with Democrats anyway. But should he win I'll gladly take the seat.

So if we go with the above map, Democrats come out with 55 seats and Republicans with 43. Not bad all things considered. We still have over 40 seats necessary for a filibuster should we need it. I've recently heard Joe Lieberman say that this is not the Democratic party he joined in 1960 under JFK and that the party has left him. McConnell and other Senate Republicans have said Joe needs to be with us and he's open to it. I think that after the election Lieberman will caucus with the GOP while Sanders stays with the Democrats. That means the Democrats will have a majority of 56 seats and the GOP 44. The House is anyone's guess but I could see gains of up to 10 for either party.

Here's to 2010 and greener congressional pastures!

So things are still not looking too good on the Senatorial front of our battle for Washington this year. I still don't believe it will be a blood bath for the GOP and that the Democrats will enjoy super majorities but they are likely expand their influence in the Senate. The House is a different story but its hard to call those races since many are local. I think the GOP will do better in that chamber than in this one though.

Having said that here are the seats I still consider safely Republican:

Maine - Susan Collins
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - James Wicker
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch
Oregon - Gordon Smith

Every Democratic seat save one is safe this year:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

There are a number of seats that remain competitive and I expect the race to tighten in many of them. However some a pure switches, none in the GOP direction much to my disappointment:

Alaska - I can't believe that we've renominated that currupt loser Ted Stevens. I hope he gets beat, we don't need him in our party. Good riddance I say. Looks like Begich is going to be Alaska's next senator. Maybe Palin can reclaim the seat in 2014.

New Hampshire - Sununu could still beat Jeanne Shaheen though she is favored to win at the moment. McCain may have long enough coatails to effect the state or it maybe that the incumbent can pull off a last minute win. We'll have to wait till we're closer to the election to know.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage at the present time. The race has shown some signs of tightening lately so their may be some hope in this state. Again its similar to New Hampshire in that we'll have to wait till closer to the election to see how the race is going.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. Gilmore is dead in the water. I see no way to save this seat and personally I'd cut our loses and put money in more useful places.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is the only beatible Democrat. We could pick this seat up. Then again we may not. We got the govenorship but we lost the House seat in the special election. We'll have to see what Kennedy can do come the fall.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to be running neck and neck here. Its one of the few places I think we can save ourselves that is a swing state. But its going to be tough. Schaffer has the edge with the energy issue though and so I'm not willing to declare the seat lost just yet.

Minnesota - Franken is a complete loonitic. He has been involved in many financial scandles and I think that Coleman is favored to win here. His approval ratings are high and that's good because we'll need all the wins we can get. Since Venture is not getting involved in the race and Franken looks worse day after day I'd say we can hold this seat.

So in the end, and including the caucusing independents, the Democrats have 55 seats to the GOP's 45. That's not too bad as we still have enough for a filibuster with 5 to spare. Its also increasing possible that Lieberman will caucus with us so that would give us 46. The House is a funny thing as I said above. I imagine will have some gains and some loses. The energy issue has been a big boost to us in the area. At worse we go down to 190 seats and at best we move up to 207. We'll just have to see.

Here's to 2010 and the slow rebuilding of our congressional majorities.

Alright here is my current most optmistic senerio for the Republicans this year. We are in bad shape but I feel that a majority of our seats are retainible. Hopefully we can avoid a blood bath. The real problem is that we in the party have abandoned conservative principles and have no leadership. That is going to make this rough.

Having said that here are those seats I think for the moment are safely Republican:

Maine - Susan Collins
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - James Wicker
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch
Oregon - Gordon Smith
Alaska - Ted Stevens*

The Democrats have great opertunities to take advantage of their control of the MSM and Republican weakness. All but one seat is safe for them:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

Of the swing states here is where we stand currently:

Alaska - I have it as lean because I think we'll bet Stevens in the primaries and retain the seat. Even if Stevens wins the primary he could still win the general but it will be tough. The seat will then become a tossup.

New Hampshire - Sununu looks to be on his way out. Jeanne Shaheen is favored to win unless McCain carries the state and somehow has enough coattails to save Sununu.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage at the present time. Now Wilson is a figher but I feel that this seat has turned on us.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. Gilmore is dead in the water. I see no way to save this seat and personally I'd cut our loses and put money in more useful places.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is the only beatible Democrat. We could pick this seat up. Then again we may not. We got the govenorship but we lost the House seat in the special election. We'll have to see what Kennedy can do come the fall.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to be running neck and neck here. Its one of the few places I think we can save ourselves that is a swing state. But its going to be tough.

Minnesota - Franken is a complete loonitic. He has been involved in many financial scandles and I think that Coleman is favored to win here. His approval ratings are high and that's good because we'll need all the wins we can get.

So in the end, and including the caucusing independents, the Democrats have 54 seats to the GOP's 46. This is our best case senerio. Maybe Lieberman will eventually caucus with us, but I don't know. Our House projects are patchic too. Now all the House races can turn on a dime and are local. However, at the present time I think we'll gain and lose seats, hopefully ending up with 200 but I think it's more likely we'll start 2009 off with only 190 seats.

Here's to 2010.

Another possible senerio. Overall, right now, without knowing who is running in many races and what the issues will be or the conditions of the country will be like at the end of next year, I see very little in the way of change. With the exceptions of the races listed below I no real serious changes in the current seats.

New Hampshire - Sununu may not be as dead as I orginially thought. His approval has come back up and from what my conservative sources tell me, Republicans there are ralling around him. He may yet beat Jeanne Shaheen. Then again he may lose, we'll keep watching.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage at the present time. Now Wilson is a figher and could still win this thing, especially if Pete Domenici campigns with her due to his great popularity. We shall see.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. I doubt Gilmore can take him down and I'll need to see more before I make that call.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is in real trouble. I believe that Kennedy could take her out and capture the seat for the GOP. At this point we'll just have to wait like all the other races.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to be running neck and neck. Its anyone's guess how this race turns out but I think that Bob Schaffer can carry the day.

South Dakota - Johnson will mostlike retain his seat, sympathy vote will probably help put him over the top thought he may have won anyway. His approval seems to be steady.

Minnesota - This state remains a tossup but I feel more and more confident that Coleman will hold his seat. I just don't see this Al the Comedian beating him. His approval is still pretty high, over 50% and I think that he'll be returning to DC.

With the rest being safe that leaves us with 50-48-2 set up. Of course all this could change on a dime but the above races are where the action will be. I don't see competition in the other states. So for right now I think we'll just have to wait and see but I think that this would be good for the Republicans, we remain a strong voice in the Senate. I also think we'll narrow things in the House be I doubt we'll retake it this time.

Safe Democratic Seats:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
Virginia - Mark Warner
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

Safe Republican Seats:
Maine - Susan Collins
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - Should be a hold
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch
Oregon - Gordon Smith

Another possible senerio. Overall, right now, without knowing who is running in many races and what the issues will be or the conditions of the country will be like at the end of next year, I see very little in the way of change. With the exceptions of the races listed below I no real serious changes in the current seats.

New Hampshire - Sununu may not be as dead as I orginially thought. His approval has come back up and from what my conservative sources tell me, Republicans there are ralling around him. He may yet beat Jeanne Shaheen. Then again he may lose, we'll keep watching.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage at the present time. Now Wilson is a figher and could still win this thing, especially if Pete Domenici campigns with her due to his great popularity. We shall see.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. I doubt Gilmore can take him down and I'll need to see more before I make that call.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is in real trouble. I believe that Kennedy could take her out and capture the seat for the GOP. At this point we'll just have to wait like all the other races.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to be running neck and neck. Its anyone's guess how this race turns out but I think that Bob Schaffer can carry the day.

South Dakota - I've given this seat to the GOP for now because Johnson had a very close election in 2002 and could very well be on his way out. It really depends on who the GOP runs but I think we could take this seat. If we run a weak candidate though, forget it.

Minnesota - This state remains a tossup but I feel more and more confident that Coleman will hold his seat. I just don't see this Al the Comedian beating him. His approval is still pretty high, over 50% and I think that he'll be returning to DC.

With the rest being safe that leaves us with the same 49-49-2 set up as before. Of course all this could change on a dime but the above races are where the action will be. I don't see competition in the other states. So for right now I think we'll just have to wait and see.

Safe Democratic Seats:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
Virginia - Mark Warner
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

Safe Republican Seats:
Maine - Susan Collins
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - Should be a hold
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch
Oregon - Gordon Smith

The 2008 Senate races seem fairly set to me and I doubt we will see much change within the senate. It is, in my opinion, not possible for the Republican party to regain control of this chamber of Congress. Our best case senerio would have us maintaining the status quo of 49-49-2.

Safe Democratic Seats:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
Virginia - Mark Warner
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
Montana - Max Baucus

Safe Republican Seats:
Maine - Susan Collins
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch
Oregon - Gordon Smith

Tossup Seats:

New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen seems likely to beat John Sununu but that is not yet for certain. In 2002 Sununu beat Shaheen 51%-46%. A rematch seems to have Shaheen coming out on top, but I'd like to see how the race progresses.

Louisiana - Mary Landrieu may be facing a tough reelection. She is by no means dead at this point but John Kennedy may be able to take her down in what is sure to be a very close race.

Minnesota - Norm Coleman is looking to have a hard campign ahead of him but I still think he can pull it off. His approval ratings are moderate, in the 50's. At this point he has incumbent advantage and his leading opponent has little experience to offer.

Colorado - This race for Allard's seat could be the closest of all the races in 2008. Bob Schaffer for the Republicans and Mark Udall are both well recieved in Colorado and its sure to be a fight to the finish. Schaffer has a decent chance of holding the seat but its a race that I'm sure will go back and forth all year long.

New Mexico - At the moment it appears that Tom Udall has the upper hand in capturing this seat for the Democrats. However, Congresswoman Heather Wilson is a fighter and popular with the GOP in New Mexico. She will, IMHO, give Udall a run for his money. This is likely to be another close race and I will be watching this race closely over the course of the year.

So in the end the Democrats pick up about 3 seats (a max of 5 is possible IMHO) while the GOP takes 1. That balances the Senate to 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 Independents assuming Joe Lieberman does not cacucus with the GOP. As for the House, its up in the air. I bet we won't know how that chamber comes out till the end of hte election next year.

At this point and time I am inclinde to say that we won't really see any serious changes in the U.S. Senate. Democrats do stand posied to gain a couple of seats and maybe even up to about 5, but that is where I cap it off. This is an anti-Washington election and I am not sure exactly how it will all go down.

Safe Republican seats:
Elizabeth Dole - North Carolina
Lindsey Graham - South Carolina
Saxby Chambliss - Georgia
Jeff Sessions - Alabama
Thad Cochran (even if he retires) - Mississippi
Lamar Alexandar - Tennessee
Mitch McConnell - Kentucky
John Cornyn - Texas
James Inhofe - Oklahoma
Pat Roberts - Kansas
Michael Enzi - Wyoming
John Barrasso - Wyoming, special election
Idaho seat is still safely Republican
Ted Stevens (or is replacement if beat in the primaries) - Alaska
Susan Collins - Maine

Republican seats I expect will retain:
Norm Coleman - Minnesota (I'll leave as a tossup for now but I think he's in fairly good shape)
Gordon Smith - Oregon

Safe Democratic Seats:
John Kerry - Massachusetts
John Reed - Rhode Island
Joe Biden - Delaware
John Rockefeller - West Virginia
Carl Levin - Michigan
Richard Durbin - Illinois
Tom Harkin - Iowa
Max Baucus - Montana

Democratic seat I expect will be retained:
Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey (this could chance as we get closer to the election)

Tossups:

Jeanne Shaheen - New Hampshire
Mark Warner - Virginia
Bob Schaffer - Colorado
Joel Dykstra - South Dakota
Heather Wilson - New Mexico
Mike Johanns - Nebraska
A possible pick up - Louisiana

As for the House of Representatives, anything goes right now. I'd say its a solid tossup and that we'll know more later. It could fall either way, abet not by much.

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