PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - benconstine (D-VA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:39

Prediction Map
benconstine MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
benconstine MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553322
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 36

Same scenario as my Presidential prediction. Also, the Democrats take the Wicker seat in MS.


Version: 26

Mississippi for Musgrove.


Version: 18

This follows the Presidential prediction, where there is a 1964 style loss for the GOP.


Version: 17

From now on, my Senatorial predictions will go along with my Presidential predictions, so this one follows the tickets of Clinton/Richarson v. McCain/Huckabee.


Version: 15

Every single Senate seat that is not nailed down to the floor is taken by the Democrats, along with a massive electoral landslide, which is reflected in my Presidential Prediction.


Version: 13

Gave LA back to Landrieu


Version: 11

With Lamar Alexander now being in the GOP leadership, I think it will hurt his reelection bid. He will still win, but it will be close.


Version: 7

Every seat we can win, we do win. In Georgia, Cleland wins a rematch with Chambliss. In Alaska, Stevens is ousted in the primary, and the GOP loses a very tight race. Ford enters in Tennessee, and knocks off Alexander in another extremely close battle. In Kentucky, McConnell is connected with Bush, and suffers for it. In North Carolina, Easely decides to enter, and beats Dole in a slim victory.


Version: 6

No candidate in Louisiana makes it a lean Democratic based on the incumbent.

5 Closests Races:
1. Franken (D) wins in MN
2. Merkley (D) wins in OR
3. Udall (D) wins in CO
4. Collins (R) wins in ME
5. McConnell (R) wins in KY


Version: 5

With the numbers on McConnell so low, it looks like the Democrats have a chance to pull off the upset.


Version: 4

The 5 Closest States:
1. Louisiana: Landrieu wins 50.26-49.74
2. Oregon: Merkley wins 50.41-49.59
3. Minnesota: Franken wins 50.69-49.31
4. New Mexico: Udall wins 51.68-48.32
5. Colorado: Udall wins 53-47


Version: 3

My last version was the best Democratic scenario, and this is the best Republican scenario. All of the GOP pickups are possinle except for Arkansas and New Jersey, which would only switch in a GOP landslide.


Version: 2

This is the ABSOLUTE best possible scenario for the Democrats. In order to do this, the Presidential race would need to be an absolute landslide, and several announced things would have to change.

In Maine, the Iraq War would need to go real bad, and Collins needs to be associated with the war, the same thing needs to happen in Kentucky for McConnell.

In Tennessee and North Carolina, the best possible candidates, Easely and Ford, need to enter the race.

In Nebraska, Kerry need to reconsider, and join the race. I expect these other states to vote Democratic under normal circumstances.


Version: 1

I may be too optimistic to give Oregon and New Mexico to the Democrats, but I think that these Democratic-leaning states will be very close, but give the Democrats a victory in the end.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 249
P 2022 Senate 34/35 26/35 60/70 85.7% pie 5 6 48T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 4 6 104T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 73 48T118
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 13 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 11 8 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 29 51T293
P 2018 Senate 33/35 26/35 59/70 84.3% pie 3 1 4T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 2 9 94T372
P 2016 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 8 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 7 1 277T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 5/12 15/24 62.5% pie 2 1 47T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 5 72T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 9 0 21T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 16/36 45/72 62.5% pie 4 1 145T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 96 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 9 0 77T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 9 1 164T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 3 1 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 9/52 51/104 49.0% pie 8 - 69T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 243 37T106
P 2010 Senate 36/37 25/37 61/74 82.4% pie 33 0 34T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 15 1 74T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 5 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 101 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 39 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 122 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 20/52 62/104 59.6% pie 30 - 36T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 11/49 51/98 52.0% pie 26 - 47T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 1/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 27 102T167
Aggregate Predictions 780/861 494/861 1274/1722 74.0% pie


Back to 2008 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved