PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:9

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+3+500012012+5
Rep000-2-3-514216-5
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic173653
Republican162642
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
523022
piepiepie

Analysis

Final.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 8

The Senate elections will not be quite so much a blow out for the Democrats as some are hoping for. Stevens will be acquited and reelected. Dole and Coleman are looking stronger. And McConnell, Chambliss, and Wicker are not actually going to lose. 56/44 with no 60 seat majority. Possibly 55/45 if the Dems can Lieberman after the election.


Version: 7

Giving Colorado to the Dems for the time being and adjusting lots of margins and confidences. I wish there was a way to predict the Barrasso and Wicker contests in Wyoming and Mississippi.


Version: 6

Alaska and Colorado swing back to the GOP, and New Hampshire to the Dems. Also, lots of fiddling with margins.


Version: 5

Taking New Hampshire from the Dems and giving Alaska to them...unless Stevens resigns after winning the primary (which would mean the seat would stay Rep).


Version: 4

Things just keep getting worse.


Version: 3

Update based on current trends. Switched Louisiana and New Mexico to the Dems and adjusted margins and confidence.


Version: 2

Still not moving any states from one column to the other...just margins and confidence to reflect changes over the past several months.


Version: 1

The breakdown in the Senate will be roughly the same after 2008, with things basically ending in a wash. Landrieu loses in Louisiana, and John Warner's open seat goes to the Dems. Other than that, exactly the same.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 46/56 30/56 76/112 67.9% pie 5 6 654T683
P 2020 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 6 211T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 3 14T192
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T149
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T153
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T760
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T103
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 797/918 536/918 1333/1836 72.6% pie


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