Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:9
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 66)
Analysis
Final.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 8 The Senate elections will not be quite so much a blow out for the Democrats as some are hoping for. Stevens will be acquited and reelected. Dole and Coleman are looking stronger. And McConnell, Chambliss, and Wicker are not actually going to lose. 56/44 with no 60 seat majority. Possibly 55/45 if the Dems can Lieberman after the election. Version: 7 Giving Colorado to the Dems for the time being and adjusting lots of margins and confidences. I wish there was a way to predict the Barrasso and Wicker contests in Wyoming and Mississippi. Version: 6 Alaska and Colorado swing back to the GOP, and New Hampshire to the Dems. Also, lots of fiddling with margins. Version: 5 Taking New Hampshire from the Dems and giving Alaska to them...unless Stevens resigns after winning the primary (which would mean the seat would stay Rep). Version: 4 Things just keep getting worse. Version: 3 Update based on current trends. Switched Louisiana and New Mexico to the Dems and adjusted margins and confidence. Version: 2 Still not moving any states from one column to the other...just margins and confidence to reflect changes over the past several months. Version: 1 The breakdown in the Senate will be roughly the same after 2008, with things basically ending in a wash. Landrieu loses in Louisiana, and John Warner's open seat goes to the Dems. Other than that, exactly the same.
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