PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - dnul222 (D-MN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-26 Version:50

Prediction Map
dnul222 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dnul222 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-3-3-69413-6
Rep+3+3+600010818+6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican242347
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
453411
piepiepie

Analysis

Maybe my last map prior to election. I switched WV back to DEMS...if I have a state at 50% I am sure it is going that way, 30% are my tossups. RIght now I feel the midwest is a general loss for DEMS but west coast and north east will sustain them.

My current prediction is 208 DEMS 227 GOP but there are so many tossups it can go anywhere from 194 - 241 for the GOP to 221-2114 for the DEMS..

There has been some comeback for DEMS in Gov races, I think they will retain a few like Oregon, Ohio and pickup Hawaii, CA, CT, VT, RI, MN these are deep blue states, notie that the DEMS losing are in purple states-not a good sign


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-26 @ 11:41:43 prediction Map
I can see both NEV, Il going DEM or both Penn and WV going GOP for sweep of all four for either party. Things are fluid and there seems to be movement in all directions based on local politics.

Here in San Francisco where I am until Friday, the atmosphere is downright calm. You would not know an election is happening if you did not have a phone or turn the TV on. But people are engaged in so far as it effects them. Since I am not a TV watcher when I have been watching football the ads have been interesting. Brown seems to be widening his lead through effective ads. While Boxer is more tenuous.


 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-26 @ 17:13:44 prediction Map
Where I am visiting they have 2 cats and one is sitting on top of the printer looking at me while I type...walked around Ferry Building, China town to find a cheap piece of luggage which I got for 14.99...people here are enjoying another sunny day in the 60's.... the election seems far away compared to the Maryland DC area....

Of course I ingested good chocolate wherever I found it so I am a happy camper. Bus prices up to 2 bucks...which is preparing me for Japan. Had a dream last night I was in Obama's cabinet and suggested doing away with education department...was it a dream or night mare?

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2010-10-26 @ 17:58:37 prediction Map
I don't think Rasmussen is gonna have Manchin ahead, he already has Reid down 49-45. I think he is gonna have WV leaning GOP.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-10-26 @ 18:00:33 prediction Map
My guess is he'll have Raese 1 or 2 points ahead and move WV to tossup.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-26 @ 18:20:06 prediction Map
I agree with both of you but I think Manchin is going to win...and Buck is going to lose...but I have a feeling Reid is losing and Illinois is following rest of midwest down the tubes...

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-26 @ 18:23:08 prediction Map
Oh, this year is so depressing. A few weeks ago we were talking about whether Manchin would win with over 60%.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-26 @ 19:02:16 prediction Map
Safe trip dnul

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-26 @ 23:03:10 prediction Map
Great to hear your in SF dnul222.

Its a beautiful city. I personally like the marine climate but would miss the Southern California sun if I lived there. It is known for some of the best restaurants in the country and considering how small the apartments and housing is, I can see why.

I hope you enjoy your stay!

Yes the democrats are going to do well here in my home state one of the few states that will escape "the wave". We have enough natural waves off the coast we don't need any more.

 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-10-27 @ 00:59:07 prediction Map
If you make another map make Illinois and Nevada red, they are safe Dem seats now.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-27 @ 01:50:06 prediction Map
Hmmm....I'll give it some thought myself. Not sure what to make of these stories but I did follow your links John.


 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-27 @ 11:36:10 prediction Map
Well John I hope you are right but I feel they are in jeoprady...maybe the debate tonight in Illinois will help. But I fear the midwest outside of MN is trending GOP big time...

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-27 @ 16:09:18 prediction Map
Harry Ried is going to lose and there's not much anyone can do about it now.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-27 @ 20:25:34 prediction Map
Turnout is the key...and DEMS are going to lose all over the place as Americans want simplistic answers to complex problems. I am afraid neither the GOP message or DEM message can solve the problems...I really wish the recommendations of the committee were released prior to the election on how to fix the debt/deficit problem so we could have had a debate in this country...cut and reduce government...but where...everywhere from defense to education to social security...

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-27 @ 21:17:30 prediction Map
I think my most controversial is PA where it is close but not as close as COlorado...and I think that Nevada might not be as close as some would like...watched the campaign rally in San Francisco today-small group no candidates for Boxer....high spirited...

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-27 @ 21:58:31 prediction Map
Colorado will be decided by less than .5%

My model (which is exstenive, and throws in national popular vote totals as 3.125% of total) has Bennet winning

BENNET (D)-49.346875%
BUCK (R)-49.215625%

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-27 @ 21:58:52 prediction Map
It's going to be a nail-biter either way.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-27 @ 23:40:16 prediction Map
I really hope your right! Bucks nuts.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-27 @ 23:41:11 prediction Map
While I agree with my above statement, I also just wanted to say "Bucks nuts"...lol it sounds funny. Say that a few times real fast !

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-28 @ 10:58:32 prediction Map
it is a tongue twister and nail biter for sure....

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-28 @ 14:58:09 prediction Map
Some recent polls taken prior to Miller's conviction have him fading and Murkowski and McAdmas gaining in Alaska...not suggesting a DEM win but a tea party loss.

ALso, we may witness regional waves, tidal waves in great lakes while slight wave on Pacific coast...hard to judge the northeast yet..

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-10-28 @ 17:22:23 prediction Map
Joe Sestak's wave has peaked. Toomey is back ahead by 7-8 points.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-28 @ 19:46:41 prediction Map
I do not think so-the poll that has him 7 behind has him up 8 in suburbs of Philly so I think there is more going on here....also, I am more interested in some of the other races this is helping in COngress in Eastern PA...

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-28 @ 19:48:33 prediction Map
I think it will be close, but I give the edge to Toomey.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-10-28 @ 20:13:16 prediction Map
If Sestak doesn't come out of Philly with a 400,000 vote edge, he's gonna get wiped out in Alabama.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-28 @ 21:40:56 prediction Map
Yeah I think it will be difficult for him to produce that type of voting edge in Philly. He also has to likely carry most of the Philly suburbs and a good percentage out of Pittsburgh.

I too, give the edge to Toomey but I think it will be closer then some polls indicate. I could see Toomey taking it by 1 or 2 pts. Which will be a bitter pill to swallow for Sestak supporters.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-29 @ 00:08:57 prediction Map
You know I don't buy that Murkowski is all that competitive in Alaska. I know what the polls have shown but if you look at them you'll find they present Lisa as an option, as though she where on the ballot. Her name will not appear on the ballot and yesterday a judge denied her request to have a list of possible write-in choices presented to the voters in the polling place.

The truth is, without being on the ballot and with a difficult last name in an anti-establishment year, I think Murkowski will be lucky to break 15%. Back in September before Mike Castle ruled out a write-in campaign, polls found that when given the options for senate with a write-in section present Castle gained only 5% of the vote. Alaska is a conservative to libertarian state and in a year like this I doubt they'll send McAdams to the Senate either.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-29 @ 00:34:46 prediction Map
I am giving McAdams a better chance in my line of thinking, I still don't think he will take it but its not as remote a thought as I once placed it. If Murkowski takes significant votes from Miller there could be a split which could enable McAdams to slip in. Even in conservative Alaska if Murkowski serves as a spoiler it could happen.

A true 3 way tossup at this point.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-29 @ 00:41:20 prediction Map
A possibility but one I see as unlikely. In fact Lisa could divide the anti-Miller vote by giving folks who want to vote against Miller but don't really like McAdams another alternative. Much like what we've seen in Florida with Meek and Crist splitting the anti-Rubio vote.

But honestly without her name on the ballot I think her effect will be minimal and most people will go to the polls thinking about Miller or McAdams.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-10-29 @ 00:43:04 prediction Map
"But honestly without her name on the ballot I think her effect will be minimal and most people will go to the polls thinking about Miller or McAdams."

In that case, McAdams would be favored. 68% have an unfavorable view of Miller.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-29 @ 00:46:12 prediction Map
I'm not sure I quite believe that but even if true, the people have sent far more corrupt and unpopular people to DC. In a year like this one I just can't see the Republicans failing to carry Alaska.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-29 @ 00:48:10 prediction Map
Well we are NOT seeing the stark divide in support we are in Florida.

McAdams is polling much better then Meek in that 3 way. While I say its still unlikely he upsets he certaintly has a chance, unlike Meek.

Last Edit: 2010-10-29 @ 00:48:28

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-29 @ 00:50:46 prediction Map
We wouldn't see that stark divide in support I think because in Alaska there is a three-way race with a write-in whereas in Florida all three candidates are on the ballot. I still say Miller is the winner but I will concede that between the two of them McAdams has more of a chance in his race than Meek in his.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-10-29 @ 01:08:07 prediction Map
No, I certaintly hear your valid points as well CR and tend to head in a Miller victory direction.

I just have simply conceeded that he doesnt have it completely locked up...IMO.
The climate overwhelmingly favors him, however certain variables are more then present for an upset scenario. However I am still forecasting his win at this point.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-29 @ 13:09:40 prediction Map
I feel that the news writings in state on his lying have hurt him and Lisa seems a more logical choice for some and McAdams is climbing because of this...from instate news that is...

Anyway I give this to one of the GOP though I know not which at this time...

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-10-30 @ 09:42:05 prediction Map
"I'm not sure I quite believe that but even if true, the people have sent far more corrupt and unpopular people to DC. In a year like this one I just can't see the Republicans failing to carry Alaska. "

Well CR, the latest poll did show McAdams ahead of Miller by 6 points. The reason Miller is in trouble is because he has run the world's most awful campaign post-primary. I don't know if he will lose but he certainly deserves to.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-10-30 @ 19:30:10 prediction Map
That's actually the poll I'm referring to in my quote. I've had the opportunity to hear Miller on a few occasions and he sounds like a normal Republican to me. Again a lot of these polls present Murkowski as an option on the ballot. I certainly don't think in a year like this one that McAdams will win in Alaska but the campaign has been very nasty. I think Miller will win but if Lisa is truly doing this well then it won't matter. The seat will remain in GOP hands.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-10-30 @ 20:11:42 prediction Map
Miller is corrupt.

There's no way getting around that.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-10-31 @ 12:50:26 prediction Map
Miller loses to Murkowski for sure from the Aloha state!

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-01 @ 12:17:55 prediction Map
Final house prediction 204 DEM 231 GOP
Final senate -7 seats DEMS retain pacific rim and WV but lose Ind. ND Wisc IL COL NV Ark

Mahalo

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2010-11-01 @ 14:55:14 prediction Map
I hope you're right about PA! Crazy, if Angle is elected a Senator, but it appears about to happen. I like the pretty colors, just wish more were pink insteadd of bblue.

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-02 @ 09:16:46 prediction Map
Very optimistic map. I like it, but I do not think the chips will fall like this, sadly enough.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:36:36 prediction Map
Well if I switch Penn for Nevada this might be the final result...seems like Bennet is back in the lead and Reid won handily to my surprise.


 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:50:19 prediction Map
Nice job overall dnul. Have a fun and safe trip.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 19:46:31 prediction Map
Yes I am in Japan now and I wanted my prediction to come true but I can be happy with the six seats which I consider a minimum loss scenario...almost 2 more Illinois and Pennsyl. (I really wanted Sestak as a voice of military reason in Congress)

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-05 @ 01:02:16 prediction Map
Well I wanted more seats in the Senate but taking into account that we needed 10 for the majority gaining 6 got us over half way there. Not bad considering we were up against popular governors, incumbent machines loaded with cash, and playing in a lot of very blue states. Democrats did this well in 2006 with the only difference being that they were closer to the 51 mark then than we were before Tuesday's election. If we can gain another 6 or 7 in 2012 we'll be set.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-11 @ 21:40:23 prediction Map
I think it will be harder to knock off 6 or 7 in 2012...I feel there will be some going each way and net zero gain or one or two for GOP...

House will be interesting as reapportionment will help and hurt in different parts of the country....for example...NY loses two seats which will probably be GOP as they won the losing population areas up state while NYCity is growing ...

Next store in PA though GOP controls but they won so many seats that it will be difficult to pick up another DEM...so -1 GOP.

Texas will be another place where DEMs will pick up because their districts are low in number and creating up to four new ones they must create another couple hispanic districts...+2 DEM

Arizona will be tough to garner another seat as they picked up a couple in election. What I am saying is that the GOP victories in the election will make it difficult to pick up more seats simply because they won so many...DEMs should have that kind of problem.


MN though offeres the GOP legislature an opportunity to combine St. Paul and Minneapolis into one district and maybe sneak another away for DEMs..

SO I feel that the next house election will be about a bust for both parties unless there is some national movement or something.

My early predicition for house elections next season is GOP +2....I think current election will sift out to 192 DEMS t0 243 GOP

2012 house 190 to 245 yes I am making a prediction already..

from a rainy Japan mountainside


 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-11 @ 21:44:33 prediction Map
I don't think there will be much of change in the Senate in 2012 either. The GOP may gain NB, MO and VA but Dems will probably get MA,ME and possibly NV.

Sounds like you're having a good time in Japan, dnul!

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 21:47:47 prediction Map
I too was very disappointed Sestak didn't make it. However considering the climate he was running in 49% is not bad.

He would have made a great senator, I hope this election does not end his political aspirations. In a more balanced political climate he could likely be very successful.

Dnul Japan? Wow, sounds like a great trip. Hope you enjoy your time!

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-11 @ 22:52:16 prediction Map
Sestak was the perfect Democratic candidate: liberal with a string military record and crossover appeal. I think Specter did too much damage to him in the primary and the tide was just against him though.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-11 @ 23:32:18 prediction Map
I'm pleased with the Toomey win :) And if it were not for Bush and Rove he could have been there in 2004.

I think 2012 presents even more opportunities. We had to play in a number of blue states or blue-purple state this year. In 2012 we start to move into more friendlier territory. I'm very excited.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-12 @ 17:31:42 prediction Map
Of course, there's no guarantee that 2012 will be anywhere near as Republican-friendly as 2010 was.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-12 @ 18:13:27 prediction Map
A week is a lifetime in politics.

In 2008 who would have predicted 2012 or that Russ Feingold would lose reelection?

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-12 @ 20:17:27 prediction Map
Very much agree with the above posts. There are never any guarantees. We shall just see were we are in two years time.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-12 @ 21:46:50 prediction Map
Yes, it is beautiful here and I have given some of my advice to the people who called me here on finacial and believe it or not epicurian ideas.

I am off to Tokyo tomorrow morning and then to Kamakura and then back into the mountains for a little more work.

The scene for America is interesting in Japan where the country wnats closer relations because of China, in fact a number of countries want to cozy up to USA because of what the perceive in China...we must be careful not to overplay that card though and engage Chinese in day to day positive actions. I do believe another golden age of peace is possible if China and USA stay engaged positively. The CHinese appreciate us being around to counter Islam too.

Obama in the press is getting positive responses...

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 05:57:42 prediction Map
While you are in Tokyo, go visit the huge shopping malls in Ginza. The largest, however, is in a part called IKikeburo.

I was on tour in Japan shortly after 911.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-16 @ 23:41:07 prediction Map
Thanks, I actually lived here from 1979-1986. ANd yes I did go to the ginza, as well as my favorite shopping place Mitsukoshi Nihonbashi...nice department store.

Okay although I am staying in Fujimi in Nakano in central Japan mountains I went for a short visit to Tokyo, Kamakura Saunday last until today. Well, as I used to do when I got to Kamakura on Sunday I went straight to the Daibutsu (big buddha) and there were all these police and you got it I waved at Obama as he went into see the buddha again...I do not think he can be muslim and look at a pagan idol..HA...but imagine the happenstance of this happening..I did not even know he was there...anyway go to Japan and see Obama...and I am not even a worshiper of him....

Small world...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 16/56 66/112 58.9% pie 8 1 614T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 11/34 43/68 63.2% pie 8 0 317T362
P 2014 Senate 32/36 16/36 48/72 66.7% pie 19 13 240T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 2 162 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T153
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T312
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T264
Aggregate Predictions 427/490 179/490 606/980 61.8% pie



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