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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-26 Version:50
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
Analysis
Maybe my last map prior to election. I switched WV back to DEMS...if I have a state at 50% I am sure it is going that way, 30% are my tossups. RIght now I feel the midwest is a general loss for DEMS but west coast and north east will sustain them.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 49 I will probably make one more map but this is my election prediction map...50% is a sure prediction for me, 40% probably 30% tossup but lean in the direction I have predicted. Version: 48 Corrected error on my prediction map in Alasaka- either GOP will win and I willpick one in my next map... Version: 47 This the next to last map I will be making as I will begin traveling again soon...this week I will make another just bfore I fly to the west coast.. Version: 46 This is my mid week map with some updates refelcting continuing changing polls...some that show more DEMS ahead...I am skeptical of most polls because so many of these seats are so fluid.... Version: 45 This is probably where it stands of today including soem GOP pollsters...I do not think it will remain this way....IL goes GOP and they have control and probably pick up Liebermann... Version: 44 I feel this is where the map is today and may well be in a few weeks...several seats are in flux for sure..IL, CO, NV and to a lesser degree WI, Missouri and KTY Version: 43 A few % differences and the gut feeling that this is going to be a GOP year...I moved WV temporarily although I still think the immensely popular governor may win.. Version: 42 More changes in %'s than anything else. I see a small DEM resurgence on the Pacific coast, continuing decline in the Midwest rust belt, except stabilized in Illinois where it is the closest followed by Missouri, and improving in Pennsylvania, but declining in WV, CT and NY... Version: 41 Since I mentioned it on 600 plus page I thought I would update here...although i honestly think it does not matter for now it is an independent win more likely than FLorida... Version: 40 This is about where I feel the game is at this moment with the Dems holding the coasts and the GOP taking the center....bloodbath in Midwest with a four seat pickup... Version: 39 Some changes in % to reflect possible write in candidacy of Murkowski, tea party win in Delaware and possible weakened Ayotte in NH. Version: 38 Well, this is my map if the tea partiers win tomorrow. I still see most races as tossups no matter who wins the primaries although Delaware switches parties narrowly. Version: 37 In reaction to some polls and some on the ground evidence I saw personally in my latest travels... Version: 36 Well I updated my map and changed one seat (Back to Boxer) and lessened some %'s like MIssouri where Carnahan is running against the tide by 4-8% in my mind. It is a tossup. Version: 35 Polls continue to bother me and the trend is good for GOP to pick up 7-9 seats. Alot can change between Labor Day and the election BUT seems seem to be solidifying into a larger than expected wave on the coasts...rnrn Version: 34 The national scene is dragging down the DEMS for what they have done and what they have not down with regards to change. The real significance of the tea party movement is the revolt of the ordinary citizen against the elites which is being written about all over the place. There you see the DEMS strongest in the northeast and pacific...while they will lose some in the south but take a real beating in the rust belt and midwest...nearly every governorship that is changing in these areas is going to the GOP one exception the Scandanavian heartland of MN...you bethca! Version: 33 I thought about it and redid my map showing what I think will be final election outcome but so many are so narrow I do not know....the party line is helping the anti Boxer crowd since the governor is trending GOP in CA... Version: 32 I moved from my more pessimistic map to a current poll influenced map. I see holding on to the Pacific rim distinctly possible... Version: 31 Although this may not materialize it is a distinct possibility given the current climate for change which most Americans expected in 2008. I feel this wave is again building and though it might recede in October, as of right now I predict both houses of COngress go Republican. Version: 30 The current state of the question with much room to grow for either party.... Version: 29 My new August map which I will redo in mid month...yes I think if I were picking winners and losers this is how I think it might go...not what I want in some states but overall it will be interesting after November.... Version: 28 I have updated my map to take into account changing %'s and the addition of WV as a solid DEM state. I am disappointed in some states, encouraged in others and surprised in some. I have adjusted my NH numbers to show narrowing polls. I think the "DON'T TREAD ON ME" state is reacting a bit to Palin's endorsement. KUDO's to Oklahoma for nominating two women to run for governor. I still think that the women's vote and slight pro woman as anti politician model is working under the cover of light in this election as some people are choosing women over men just because they seem less politician to them....any thoughts? Version: 27 Not too many changes in the map except in %'s. I still think The Dems will retain the coasts and have a little luck in the Midwest. Something is happening in LA and Vitter is not being seen as effective as either his fellow senator (D) or the Gov. (R) and has seen his %'s shrink a bit...so some are a little more circumspect about his election chances...maybe a runoff in mymind. Version: 26 Another poll showing Reid ahead by several points, one a Democratic poll and another. Plus Rasmussen showing Carnahan only 2 points behind which I take as tied and a win probably for Carnahan, then I think WI and PENN will stay Dem too...so this is my most recent thoughts...ah a good night sleep and optimism. Version: 25 New Rasmussen poll has Boxer 7% ahead which is more than enough for me...although I do consider Rasmussen not too far off in polls. Version: 24 This is where I see the race as of today using some recent polls and momentum. Maybe this will change but the mood in the country is not pro GOP so much and anti DEM and ruling party overreach. I still say that the party made a huge error to push health care prior to solving the basic economic questions of jobs.... Version: 23 A slight change recognizing Bill Bennetts predictions in nevada but not Colorado...and upgrading/downgrading some %... Version: 22 I feel like Rasmussen that Kirk is trending down....for now. So I would retain this seat and will look at redoing Wisconsin soon too... Version: 21 Current state of affairs for the senatorial elections...sorry Rogin but I feel at this time you trail. NC move farther away and Kentucky just leans to GOP. Dems have best chance in Kty, Missouri and Nev to retake some... Version: 20 I think this is a crazy year and for now winds are blowing strongly for GOP but also in several other directions.... Version: 19 I have adjuste % and have moved temporarily Nevada to Republican while I feel that NC offers an excellent opportunity especially if Rasmussen has it one point....tossup which for the sake of argument I give to Dems... Version: 18 This is my current state of thinking for the Fall election based on feelings, polls and thoughts about November wrenched from the swamps... Version: 17 Clearly the past two weeks are proving a litle better for Dems than APril/early May. Seems like Reid is making a comeback a bit, and that Tarkanian/Lowden are trailing their Rep. opponent. Rand Paul and Kirk's misstatements have leveled or shortened the filed in those states, Missouri is basically tied as is Ohio. Sestak leads in most polls and may win this won in high single digits...we shall see as it is only June Version: 16 Well, I have returned after a few days out of the area and enjoying the weather-this is my Memorial Day assesment. Better for democrats than before but with big question marks on Missouri and Colorado...which can just as easily be Republican... Version: 15 This is my deream map- with little connection to the end result I am sure...there are many surprises yet to come with the nomination of candidates... Version: 14 The landscape is not much different but I do think that the elections of 5/18 show a danger to all incumbents and establishment candidates. Biggest win PA 12th which wnet for McCain in 2008 but stuck with a Dem in COngress-rematch in the Fall. Version: 13 Well, the McLaughlin report has a poll out that shows what I call the Lieberman effect where members of the opposing party desert their candidate in favor of picking a less conservative choice for senator than who might have won. His poll shows Crist taking 41% of Dems to Meeks 31%. Now it is early May and his name will be in a horrible position on the ballots to win, and it is Florida after all. But along with the lead in Ohio I decided to redo my map-this is it for the month though. Version: 12 I updated my map for the Wisconsin scenario and a few % points down on Washington and California. Still a good year for Reps but there is some areas of concern....watch North Carolina and Georgia although I do not feel either will fall to Dems but it will take a little moer $$$ to make sure that does not happen just like a lot of $$$ will need to be spent in California which will lessen monies in other part of the country. Version: 11 I changed my estimations for April based on polling in recent states and adjusted a few % points for a slight swing back to Dems in Fall based on improving economy and lessening of the health care discussion. Version: 10 This is more of a combination of current polls and what I think November will look like...I have switched over Ohio but retained my Missouri and Pennsylvania confidence but by less. Version: 9 This is based on some chosed candidates, some recent polls and some wishful thinking and returning to my inclinations....AND it is February and I do not plan on updating this version for another month or so. Version: 8 I have made the ultimate map for CR and others in what I consider the far outside possibility. IN this I have Rossi running in Washington, Boxer collapsing in California and Thompson running in Wisconsin. IN other fords better than the trifecta in any race-a perfect storm of recruitments for the Republicans and the climate stays as bad in the economy and elsewhere. Version: 7 With the retirement of Evan Bayh even with the % lead in the polls and 13 million it looks bleak for Dems...I would increase probability of takeover by 10%. Indiana, Delaware and North Dakota are gone, followed by Arkansas, Nevada and Possibly Illinois. Version: 6 I shifted Pennsylvania to the Republicans and I have not given up on my Missouri pick for Dems...I feel this will be close but the outlier for Dems... Version: 5 I have updated my maps to show Blumenthal's entry...the strongest candidate the Dems have in COnnecticut for anything, changed Illinois as the smear campaign against Kirk has some traction-from his fellow primary oppenent and Lincoln I have downgraded as she seems to be getting no traction... Version: 4 This is shaping up to be an interesting year. Dodd retires which means the Dems might have a shot but I feel this will fall to Reps., as will NDakota where Dorgan is retiring....I think at least 5 seats is probably a gain for Reps. Version: 3 Well, I adjusted some % and feel Illinois will drop to Dems, but even though COnservRep feels good about his state, I am still putting it in a contrarian mood and electing a Democrat....lots can happen across the board though... Version: 2 No change but trying to recover my info-seems my site is disabled and I am having a hard time restarting it! Version: 1 The economic news will improve marginally for next year's election but Democratic fatigue will be in place for a several seat pickup....lots to come with some interesting primaries ahead for incumbents.
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