The expose of the media trying to throw the election in Alaska will probably result in Miller getting elected.

Updated with new momentum polling

Republicans are currently fighting to keep their Senate seats above 40 but it looks like they will fall short. *Update* Portman has fallen below 50% support in a couple of polls taken the last week, with the Dem turnout being higher then predicted this could be a surprise upset.

Due to a vast Dem edge in early voting, polls tightening, republican lynch mob attacks on women and unusual voting machine behavior that helps Dems the threatened Republican tide in the Senate has been averted. *UPDATE* Lincoln is closing the gap in Arkansas 36-48 in latest poll. The Dem wave continues to build.......rn*UPDATE 2* Zogby has Crist pulling within 7 of Rubio, Republicans now pooping pants....*UPDATE 3* Grassley has fallen to 55% in Iowa making it a tossup now, Hodes is only down 51%-44% in New Hampshire in the last ARG poll giving him amazing momentum.

With machines in Nevada automatically checking Reids name for Senator (http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/25511115/detail.html) and Reid buying votes with gift cards (http://www.drudgereport.com/) Nevada is now safe Dem. Illinois will now be throwing away hundreds of thousands of votes from absentee ballots which will remove the vast majority of the military vote (http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/iteam&id=7747590) which will be enough to tip the election there as well.

The picture is getting grimmer by the day. The foreign money being poured into Republicans accounts is sickening - In an interview with Al Hunt of Bloomberg News scheduled to air tonight, Vice President Biden commented on the need for disclosure: “I was amazed at the amount of money, this $200 billion of money that is — where there’s no accountability,” he said. “When I say accountability, we don’t know where it’s coming from. There’s no disclosure, so the folks watching the ad can’t make a judgment based upon motive when you say it’s paid for by so-and-so.”
The question is, what are Republicans offering foreign governments in exchange for this money?

This will be the result election day. :(

Last 2 polls in Illinois put Kirk up by 2% and 4%, still a tossup but enough to make color Illinois blue for now. Last poll from West Virginia puts Raese up 7%. Of the two I feel WV is far more likely to go blue; if both go blue then it's going to be a long, long night for dems.

We could have the spectacle of Dems doing better then expected in the East and Reps doing better then expected in the West leading to an interesting night of Dems celebrating early and Reps celebrating at night.

Based on the way the latest polls are trending, Nevada is likely to go Republican, West Virginia is likely to go Democratic and the race in California has become close over the last week (last poll: 2010-10-14 Ipsos D +1) . That will be my pick for the election day surprise of which there is usually one or two when election day comes. Illinois has the polls close but it's hard to see Kirk overcoming the Chicago machine. *update* moved Washington to tossup, last poll was only 3% difference. With momentum shifting to the R's the Democratic party better pull something out of its *** to save itself embarrassment on election day. If Kendrick "The Ego" Meek would do the right thing it would not only help in Florida but also lift Dems spirits across the country and improve their turnout by giving them hope.

Based on the way the latest polls are trending, Nevada is likely to go Republican, West Virginia is likely to go Democratic and the race in California has become close over the last week (last poll: 2010-10-14 Ipsos D +1) . That will be my pick for the election day surprise of which there is usually one or two when election day comes. Illinois has the polls close but it's hard to see Kirk overcoming the Chicago machine.

After cresting last week the Dems are down to 52 seats, with two of the three independents caucusing with the Dems. Who will Murkowski side with though? If the Dems retain 52+2 independents she may decide to side with them after all in order to put herself in a better position to help Alaska (and by extension herself), plus she can use it 6 years down the road to point out she really is an independent.

After sitting here and watching the debate between Angle and Reid I have to say the race is lost for Reid. Partly it is the low bar set for Angle: All Angle had to do was speak lucidly and not come off as crazy. Not only did she do that but she also kept Reid on the ropes all night. While neither landed any knockout punches (and both were prone to give talking points, albeit Reid gave more)it's a solid decision win for Angle helped by the low standards. When she won the nomination I thought Reid would win in cakewalk, now it looks like nothing will help him, she's even raised more money then him and he's the freaking Senate Majority leader. *&%$!

Meek turned down the offer Clinton made to him to drop out of the race. Apparently he'd rather finish in 3rd place and have the DNC hate him for life then take a good job now with a chance at public office later on down the line. In Illinois most military ballots won't be counted which will make it all but impossible for a Kirk win. (headline at Drudgereport if you want to read about it)

Based on polls released from Oct.10th to 12th and the reports coming in on polls to be released tomorrow this is where the races are trending, quite different then a few days ago. *update* Meek is expected to drop out tomorrow and endorse Crist. That makes it a two way race and when you add the Dem and Ind vote from the last poll you get Crist 54% Rubio 44% Undecided 2%.

Washington is now lean Republican due to a steady movement towards Rossi:
Sept. 14th D+9
Sept. 21st D+2
Sept. 25th D+1
Sept. 28th R+1
Oct. 6th R+3
Nevada is now lean Republican due to movement towards Angle:
Sept. 23rd D+5
Sept. 28th D+1
Oct. 2nd R+3
Oct. 5th R+2
Oct. 5th R+4
After spending millions a month in June, July and August in ads, radio spots and mailers defining Angle to the voters without her able to do or say anything due to no funds and the RNC basically ceding the race to Reid he should be coasting to victory. If he wasn't able to pull away before then it's hard to see him being able to win now that she is able to fight back.

Changed a couple of leans to solids: South Dakota and South Carolina because I overlooked them in my last update and New York to solid since it seems the two close polls were outliers. Washington is now lean Republican due to a steady movement towards Rossi:
Sept. 14th D+9
Sept. 21st D+2
Sept. 25th D+1
Sept. 28th R+1
Oct. 6th R+3
If Rossi is consistently up in the last couple weeks here he wins, even if he goes into election day down a couple points I would expect him to win due to better turnout for Republicans this election cycle.

The trend has been growing and so I must, unfortunately, update my map to a more realisitc scenario then my last one where the Dems only lost a couple seats. California is now in play, Angle is up by 3 in the last Nevada poll despite several months of attack ads by Reid and even Connecticut is in play depending on how large the Republican turnout is. On the plus side in 2012 Obama can blame the Republican Senate and House for any national problems thus helping his re-election bid.

Latest polls give Democratic Senate candidates increased support and shots at winning in Alaska, Missouri, Ohio and Kentucky. While I doubt they will win all of them on election day it doesn't appear Republicans will win anywhere near what they thought they would, they will only gain 2-3 Senate seats.