Comments History
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hideVersion: 25
I'm very uncertain on AK, WV, and WA, so I could easily change these before election day! Final commented predictions on margin will be on Monday.
Version: 24
Prediction Results:
AL: Richard Shelby +36
AK: Joe Miller +5
AZ: John McCain +24
AR: John Boozman +19
CA: Barbara Boxer +3
CO: Ken Buck +3
CT: Richard Blumenthal +10
DE: Chris Coons +23
FL: Marco Rubio +12
GA: Johnny Isakson +18
HI: Daniel Inouye +35
ID: Michael Crapo +38
IL: Mark Kirk +4
IN: Dan Coats +18
IA: Chuck Grassley +26
KS: Jerry Moran +30
KY: Rand Paul +6
LA: David Vitter +15
MD: Barbara Mikulski +22
MO: Roy Blunt +14
NV: Sharron Angle +3
NH: Kelly Ayotte +15
NY: Chuck Schumer +34
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand +19
NC: Richard Burr +16
ND: John Hoeven +45
OH: Rob Portman +22
OK: Tom Coburn +25
OR: Ron Wyden +16
PA: Pat Toomey +4
SC: Jim DeMint +35
SD: John Thune +55
UT: Mike Lee +32
VT: Patrick Leahy +37
WA: Patty Murray +1
WV: John Raese +3
WI: Ron Johnson +7
Pickup Predictions:
GOP (incumbent name afterward)
AL-2: Bobby Bright
AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5: Harry Mitchell
AZ-8: Gabrielle Giffords
AR-1: Marion Berry
AR-2: Vic Snyder
CA-11: Jerry McNerney
CO-3: John Salazar
CO-4: Betsy Markey
FL-2: Allen Boyd
FL-8: Alan Grayson
FL-22: Ron Klein
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8: Jim Marshall
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson
11-14: Bill Foster
IL-17: Phil Hare
IN-8: Brad Ellsworth
IN-9: Baron Hill
IA-3: Leonard Boswell
KS-3: Dennis Moore
MD-1: Frank Kratovil
MA-10: Bill Delahunt
MI-01: Bart Stupak
MI-07: Mark Schauer
MS-01: Travis Childers
MO-04: Ike Skelton
NV-03: Dina Titus
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter
NH-02: Paul Hodes
NJ-03: John Adler
NM-02: Harry Teague
NY-19: John Hall
NY-20: Scott Murphy
NY-23: Bill Owens
NY-24: Michael Arcuri
NY-29: Eric Massa (VACANT)
NC-08: Larry Kissell
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy
OH-01: Steve Driehaus
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy
OH-16: John Boccieri
0H-18: Zack Space
OR-05: Kurt Schrader
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper
PA-07: Joe Sestak
PA-08: Patrick Murphy
PA-10: Chris Carney
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski
PA-12: Mark Critz
SC-05: John Spratt
SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
TN-04: Lincoln Davis
TN-06: Bart Gordon
TN-08: John Tanner
TX-17: Chet Edwards
VA-02: Glenn Nye
VA-05: Tom Periello
WA-03: Brian Baird
WV-01: Alan Mollohan
WI-07: David Obey
WI-08: Steve Kagen
DEM:
DE-AL: Mike Castle
IL-10: Mark Kirk
LA-2: Joseph Cao
GAINS: GOP+59
Version: 15
SENATE 2010 PREDICTION:
Alabama: Shelby- 68%, Barnes-32%
Alaska: Murkowski- 69%, Democrat- 28%
Arizona: McCain- 62%, Glassman- 35%
Arkansas: Boozman- 57%, Lincoln- 43%
California: Boxer- 51%, Fiorina- 47%
Colorado: Buck- 53%, Bennet- 47%
Connecticut: Blumenthal- 56%, McMahon- 43%
Delaware: Castle- 63%, Coons- 37%
Florida: Crist- 43%, Rubio- 36%, Meek-21%
Georgia: Isakson- 59%, Thurmond-39%
Hawaii: Inouye- 78%, Cavasso-19%
Idaho: Crapo-82%, Sullivan-17%
Illinois: Kirk-51%, Giannoulias-44%
Indiana: Coats-57%, Ellsworth- 42%
Iowa: Grassley- 61%, Conlin- 38%
Kansas: Moran-65%, Johnston- 33%
Kentucky: Paul-54%, Conway-46%
Louisiana: Vitter-58%, Melancon-42%
Maryland: Mikulski-65%, Wargotz-35%
Missouri: Blunt-53%, Carnahan-46%
Nevada: Angle-50%, Reid-46%
New Hampshire: Ayotte-56%, Hodes-43%
New York: Schumer-72%, Townsend-26%
New York: Gillibrand-59%, DioGuardi- 40%
North Carolina: Burr-58%, Marshall-41%
North Dakota: Hoeven-73%, Potter-27%
Ohio: Portman-53%, Fisher-47%
Oklahoma: Coburn-62%, Myles-37%
Oregon: Wyden-53%, Huffman-43%
Pennsylvania: Toomey-52%, Sestak-47%
South Carolina- DeMint-64%, Greene-36%
South Dakota- Thune-89%, Other-11%
Utah: Lee-63%, Granato-36%
Vermont: Leahy-75%, Britton-20%
Washington: Murray-51%, Rossi-48%
Wisconsin: Feingold-51%, Johnson-49%
HOUSE PREDICTIONS
Alabama-2 (Bright) GOP PICKUP +1
Alabama-5 (OPEN-Griffith) GOP HOLD
Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick) DEM HOLD
Arizona-3 (OPEN-Shadegg) GOP HOLD
Arizona-5 (Mitchell) GOP PICKUP+2
Arizona-8 (Giffords) GOP PICKUP+3
Arkansas-1 (OPEN-Berry) GOP PICKUP+4
Arkansas-2 (OPEN-Snyder) GOP PICKUP+5
Arkansas-4 (Ross) DEM HOLD
California-3 (Lungren) GOP HOLD
California-11(McNerney) DEM HOLD
California-18 (Cardoza) DEM HOLD
California-20 (Costa) DEM HOLD
California-44 (Calvert) GOP HOLD
California-45 (Bono Mack) GOP HOLD
California-47 (Sanchez) DEM HOLD
Colorado-3 (Salazar) DEM HOLD
Colorado-4 (Markey) GOP PICKUP+6
Colorado-7 (Perlmutter) DEM HOLD
Connecticut-4 (Himes) DEM HOLD
Connecticut-5 (Murphy) DEM HOLD
Delaware-AL (OPEN-Castle) DEM PICKUP, now GOP PICKUP+5
Florida-2 (Boyd) DEM HOLD
Florida-8 (Graston) GOP PICKUP+6
Florida-12 (OPEN-Putnam) GOP HOLD
Florida-22 (Klein) DEM HOLD
Florida-24 (Kosmas) GOP PICKUP+7
Florida-25 (OPEN-Diaz-Balart) GOP HOLD
Georgia-8 (Marshall) DEM HOLD
Georgia-12 (Barrow) DEM HOLD
Hawaii-1 (Djou) DEM PICKUP, now GOP PICKUP+6
Idaho-1 (Minnick) GOP PICKUP+7
Illinois-8 (Bean) DEM HOLD
Illinois-10 (OPEN-Kirk) GOP HOLD
Illinois-11 (Halvorson) DEM HOLD
Illinois-14 (Foster) GOP PICKUP+8
Illinois-17 (Hare) DEM HOLD
Indiana-2 (Donnelly) DEM HOLD
Indiana-8 (OPEN-Ellsworth) GOP PICKUP+9
Indiana-9 (Hill) GOP PICKUP+10
Iowa-1 (Braley) DEM HOLD
Iowa-3 (Boswell) GOP PICKUP+11
Kansas-3 (OPEN-Moore) GOP PICKUP+12
Kansas-4 (OPEN-Tiahrt) GOP HOLD
Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth) DEM HOLD
Kentucky-6 (Chandler) DEM HOLD
Louisiana-2 (Cao) DEM PICKUP, now GOP PICKUP+11
Louisiana-3 (OPEN-Melancon) GOP PICKUP+12
Maine-1 (Pingree) DEM HOLD
Maryland-1 (Kratovil) GOP PICKUP+13
Massachusetts-6 (Tierney) DEM HOLD
Massachusetts-10 (OPEN-Delahunt) DEM HOLD
Michigan-1 (OPEN-Stupak) GOP PICKUP+14
Michigan-3 (OPEN-Ehlers) GOP HOLD
Michigan-7 (Schauer) GOP PICKUP+15
Michigan-9 (Peters) DEM HOLD
Minnesota-1 (Walz) DEM HOLD
Minnesota-6 (Bachmann) GOP HOLD
Mississippi-1 (Childers) GOP PICKUP+16
Mississippi-4 (Taylor) DEM HOLD
Missouri-3 (Carnahan) DEM HOLD
Missouri-4 (Skelton) DEM HOLD
Nebraska-2 (Terry) GOP HOLD
Nevada-3 (Titus) GOP PICKUP+17
New Hamphire-1 (Shea-Porter) GOP PICKUP+18
New Hampshire-2 (OPEN-Hodes) GOP PICKUP+19
New Jersey-3 (Adler) DEM HOLD
New Jersey-6 (Pallone) DEM HOLD
New Jersey-12 (Holt) DEM HOLD
New Mexico-1 (Heinrich) DEM HOLD
New Mexico-2 (Teague) GOP PICKUP+20
New Mexico-3 (Lujan) DEM HOLD
New York-1 (Bishop) DEM HOLD
New York-13 (McMahon) DEM HOLD
New York-19 (Hall) GOP PICKUP+21
New York-20 (Murphy) DEM HOLD
New York-23 (Owens) GOP PICKUP+22
New York-24 (Arcuri) GOP PICKUP+23
New York-25 (Maffei) DEM HOLD
New York-29 (OPEN-Massa) GOP PICKUP+24
North Carolina-2 (Etheridge) DEM HOLD
North Carolina-8 (Kissell) GOP PICKUP+25
North Carolina-11 (Shuler) DEM HOLD
North Dakota-AL (Pomeroy) GOP PICKUP+26
Ohio-1 (Driehaus) GOP PICKUP+27
Ohio-6 (Wilson) DEM HOLD
Ohio-12 (Tiberi) GOP HOLD
Ohio-13 (Sutton) DEM HOLD
Ohio-15 (Kilroy) GOP PICKUP+28
Ohio-16 (Boccieri) DEM HOLD
Ohio-18 (Space) DEM HOLD
Oklahoma-2 (Boren) DEM HOLD
Oregon-1 (Wu) DEM HOLD
Oregon-5 (Schrader) DEM HOLD
Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper) GOP PICKUP+29
Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire) DEM HOLD
Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach) GOP HOLD
Pennsylvania-7 (OPEN-Sestak) GOP PICKUP+30
Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy) GOP PICKUP+31
Pennsylvania-10 (Carney) GOP PICKUP+32
Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski) GOP PICKUP+33
Pennsylvania-12 (Critz) GOP PICKUP+34
Pennsylvania-15 (Dent) DEM HOLD
Pennsylvania-17 (Holden) DEM HOLD
Rhode Island-1 (OPEN-Kennedy) DEM HOLD
South Carolina-5 (Spratt) DEM HOLD
South Dakota- AL (Herseth-Sandlin GOP PICKUP+35
Tennessee-4 (Davis) DEM HOLD
Tennessee-6 (OPEN-Gordon) GOP PICKUP+36
Tennessee-8 (OPEN-Tanner) GOP PICKUP+37
Texas-17 (Edwards) GOP PICKUP+38
Texas-23 (Rodriguez) DEM HOLD
Texas-27 (Ortiz) DEM HOLD
Utah-2 (Matheson) DEM HOLD
Virginia-2 (Nye) GOP PICKUP+39
Virginia-5 (Periello) GOP PICKUP+40
Virginia-9 (Boucher) DEM HOLD
Virginia-11 (Connolly) GOP PICKUP+41
Washington-2 (Larsen) DEM HOLD
Washington-3 (OPEN-Baird) GOP PICKUP+42
Washington-8 (Reichert) GOP HOLD
Washington-9 (Smith) DEM HOLD
West Virginia-1 (OPEN- Mollohan) GOP PICKUP+43
West Virginia-3 (Rahall) DEM HOLD
Wisconsin-3 (Kind) DEM HOLD
Wisconsin-7 (OPEN-Obey) GOP PICKUP+44
Wisconsin-8 (Kagen) GOP PICKUP+45
TOTAL
GOP PICKUP+45
House- 224 Republicans, 211 Democrats
Version: 11
I really hope Mark Kirk is elected in Illinois.
Version: 5
Updated with Byron Dorgan's retirement.