This is it . . .

Dems hold the Senate 51-49...for now. WA, NV, IL, CA & WI are the most precarious races at the moment.

One thing I'm curious about is if there ends up being a 50-50 split or the GOP takes the Senate: where do Lieberman (I-CT) and Nelson (D-NE) end up? Lieberman's already leaning towards the GOP on a lot of issues and Nelson would do well to switch in order to save his hide in 2012. Can't forget about Pryor (D-AR) either- both Nelson and Pryor voted against the health care bill and both might be very scared given the results of this election. But then again, 2012 is a lifetime away in American politics...

To people who commented on my previous versions:

-Good point re Djou (R-HI)- I forgot he ran against against 2 Democrats. That negates my point. However, Hanabusa is the HI Senate majority leader. If enough voters in that district are angry at the state, it would certainly make things a bit more contentious. However, Hanabusa probably stands an excellent chance at beating Djou right now.

-Re: Cao (R-LA)- wasn't there a recent poll that showed him leading his most popular Democratic opponent 51-26 or something like that?

Re the House flipping: I guess I'll go against the grain here as well. I always find it interesting that people frequently guess the House is in play. The thing is, it's very hard to poll 435 races, so I guess people are prone to generalizations based in generic ballot samplings and national mood.
Personally, I don't expect the House to flip. I think that the GOP will make a lot of gains, especially in districts where the Dem incumbents won narrowly in some past elections (SD-AL, ID-1, etc.) I think there certainly might be more parity in the composition of the House (something like after the 2006 election), but right now I don't see a GOP House take-over as especially likely.
The reason I see a GOP Senate as more likely is that there are some very vulnerable and highly targetable incumbents as well as a lot of Dem retirements this year. However, given the recent polling in DE and NV, I might be inclined to downgrade a GOP Senate takeover.

Bottom line: Right now, I think in Jan. 2011 we'll see Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid (yes, I think he'll win), but with much thinner majorities.

***Biggest question that hasn't been mentioned this cycle: Will the NJ recall challenge actually happen? If it is green-lighted, this could be an excellent pick-up opportunity for the GOP in light of Chris Christie's victory in 11/09.***

WA, CA, IL & WI- the most fragile of toss-up states for the Dems to retain. The only reason I have them as labelled in the Dem column is because of a dearth of polling available. All 4 of these races could easily switch to lean GOP.

NV, CO, OH, MO & PA- could be genuine horse races. Not a whole lot of dramatic polling, but most polls show the GOP taking 4 if not all of these states.

WV-Still a mystery, though I am sure the GOP could have a strong shot at taking this seat given the right conditions.

A GOP take-over of the Senate is not out of the question at this point.

Races to keep in eye on right now: WA, WI, CA, CO, KY, NV, PA, IL, OH. Some of these are especially volatile, and some are just really interesting.

Also, keep a look out for CT, FL, NH, NC and especially AZ later in the summer. AZ could be one of the most exciting races this year.

WA & WI are teetering on the precipice for the Dems...

At the moment, I see a lot of uncertainty with the Senate races, which is somewhat unusual at this point in the cycle.

At the moment, I don't think it's out of the question for the Dems to hold NV, CO, IL and PA, given a number of recently decided primaries and some recent political scandals. I also don't think it's impossible that the GOP takes WA and WI, although it's probably unlikely in the case of WI.

Some races to watch: IA, AZ, NH and NC. With the exception of NH, these are races with an incumbent whose status could make his future a liability (especially AZ and NC).