PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - Smash255 (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:4

Prediction Map
Smash255 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Smash255 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-3-3-69413-6
Rep+3+3+600010818+6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican242347
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
583424
piepiepie

Analysis

Reluctantly flipped Nevada and Illinois to GOP. I know the polls show PA going to Toomey, but I have a feeling Dem turnout is predicted to be too low in the polls and I feel that Sestak will pull it off. Colorado is as tossup as tossup can get, but I will give the edge to Bennet.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Flipped West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Looks like Manchin has retaken the lead. I still hold out hope Feingold will be able to pull it out, the poll in WI-8 makes me a bit more confident, since Johnson's lead there if true would probably mean pretty much a tie statewide. With that being said until other polling shows in closer I can't justify leaving it as Dem.

Nevada is on the edge of flipping. Angle being completely crazy should keep the seat in Reid's hands, but I am becoming less and less confident in that.

Pennsylvania, polls have been all over the place, from a solid Toomey lead to a tie. This is another I could easily flip, but will leave it as is for now.

Colorado, pure tie at this point. I give a very slight edge to Bennett holding on to it. I wouldn't be surprised if a winner isn't known right away.

Illinois, Kirk does seem to have anywhere from a 2-4 point lead right now. However, if any state is going to have undecideds break towards the Dems its Illinois. If the polls were a point or two higher I would give this to Kirk, but at this point I think a Republican probably needs a 3-5 point lead heading into election day in Illinois to win, its 2-4 now, so by the skin of the teeth I give this as a hold for the Dems.


Version: 2

Both Washington and California are right on the tossup/lean line, just decided to go with lean due to the state. Wisconsin is probably my most questionable pick, I just have a feeling Feingold will pull it out, though we might know no the result on Election Night.

Bennet and Sestak appear to have the momentum.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2014 Senate 32/36 25/36 57/72 79.2% pie 3 4 82T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 14/36 45/72 62.5% pie 2 1 145T300
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 1 2 47T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 2 40T343
P 2010 Senate 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 4 1 86T456
P 2010 Governor 37/37 26/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 1 11T312
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 16 2 13T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 2 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 2 2 3T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 158 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 15 2 20T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 1 44T312
P 2004 President 49/56 33/56 82/112 73.2% pie 2 139 1036T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 440/463 315/463 755/926 81.5% pie



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