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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-5-98210-9
Rep+4+5+900010818+9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic103848
Republican272350
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
603327
piepiepie

Analysis

FINAL ANALYSIS

Alabama: Easy hold for Richard Shelby.

Alaska: The defeat of Lisa Murkowski in the primary and her subsequent strong write-in campaign make this race interesting. But Tea Party backed Joe Miller should still win in this heavily conservative state.

Arizona: With the immigration debate hot in voters minds, and with the Obama administration challenging the immigration law which has wide popularity here, even McCain can't lose this one.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is dead, despite her campaign's deep pockets. John Boozman wins easily.

California: Barbara Boxer faces perhaps her toughest ever re-election bid. However, in liberal California, she should squeak by.

Colorado: A close race, with voters having some reservations about Mike Bennet. I predict a GOP Gain given the political climate. Ken Buck wins.

Connecticut: Connecticut has become a Democratic heartland, like most of New England. Richard Blumenthal should win.

Delaware: What can I say, Delaware GOP voters blew what should have been an easy Republican pickup by choosing maverick Christine O'Donnell. Chris Coons wins convincingly.

Florida: Marco Rubio has gained political traction since the primary, uniting most Florida Republican voters behind him, while Crist and Meek split the Democrats and Independents. Rubio wins.

Georgia: No problems for Johnny Isakson.

Hawaii: Easy win for longtime Senator Daniel Inouye.

Idaho: Crapo should post one of the more lopsided victories of the night.

Illinois: A true tossup in the Obama heartland. Voter turnout will decide this race. Given that early voting has been favoring Republicans, I predict that high GOP turnout will prevail for Mark Kirk. This one is hard to predict though.

Indiana: A generally red state with two relatively unknown candidates. Given the national trends and Indiana's traditional Republicanism, Coats should win easily.

Iowa: Centrist and favorite-son Chuck Grassley shouldn't have any problems.

Kansas: Easy win for Jerry Moran.

Kentucky: The nomination of Rand Paul has made this race more competitive for the GOP than it should have been. Nevertheless, Paul should carry conservative Kentucky.

Louisiana: David Vitter should win easily.

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski is one of the safest Democrats up for re-election. Only a true tidal wave could defeat her.

Missouri: Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan are both well known here. However, the DNC is seemingly giving up on Carnahan by pulling much of her national funding. Given this fact and that McCain won in MO, Blunt should carry the day.

Nevada: The Dems are bringing out the big guns to protect the Senate leader. A close race, but Republicans are more motivated. Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by a tight margin.

New Hampshire: This state has been favoring the Republican (albeit narrowly) all year. Kelly Ayotte wins.

New York: Political goliath Chuck Schumer against a no-name Republican. No contest.

New York (S): Kirsten Gillibrand is certainly more vulnerable than Schumer, and the NRSC had been pumping in some funding to DioGuardi. But the Dems still rule in NY. Gillibrand wins.

North Carolina: Richard Burr maintains a solid lead, bucking earlier polling depicting a tighter race. GOP hold.

North Dakota: The popular Govenor John Hoeven has the most likely GOP pickup of the 2010 election. Don't be surprised to see Hoeven surpass 70% here.

Ohio: One of the hardest hit states by the economic crisis, Ohio's voters are pissed at Washington. This and the state’s Republican leaning give this race to Rob Portman.

Oklahoma: Tom Coburn is a shoo-in.

Oregon: Ron Wyden remains popular, and is running a strong campaign. I cannot see him losing.

Pennsylvania: Just as Republicans shot themselves in the foot in Delaware, Democrats might have done the same in nominating Joe Sestak. True, Pat Toomey is quite conservative for Pennsylvania, but Sestak is equally as liberal. The overall Republican climate favors Toomey.

South Carolina: Jim DeMint hangs on easily.

South Dakota: John Thune does not even have a Democratic opponent. This is easily the most lopsided GOP victory of the night.

Utah: The most Republican state in the nation, Mike Lee has no problems.

Vermont: Pat Leahy is probably the most likely Democrat to win.

Washington: Justine Gregoire faces a strong challenge from Dino Rossi, but Rossi always seems to find a way to lose. Gregiore holds on.

West Virginia: With the death of Robert Byrd, Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is trying to fill Byrd's large shoes. But with WV voting Republican in all recent Presidential elections, the time seems right for the GOP to win one of the state's Senate seats. John Raese edges to victory.

Wisconsin: Democrat Russ Feingold finds himself facing the wrath of angry voters in his homestate. The once champion of campaign finance reform, Feingold seems likely to lose in a race representative of the national trend.




Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Version: 3

Alabama: Easy hold for Richard Shelby.

Alaska: The defeat of Lisa Murkowski in the primary and her subsequent write-in campaign make this race interesting. But Tea Party backed Joe Miller should win in this heavily conservative state.

Arizona: With the immigration debate hot in voters minds, and with the Obama administration challenging the immigration law which has wide popularity here, even McCain can't lose this one.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is dead, despite her campaign's deep pockets. John Boozman wins easily.

California: Barbara Boxer faces perhaps her toughest ever re-election bid. However, in liberal California, she should squeak by.

Colorado: A close race, with voters having some reservations about Mike Bennet. I predict a GOP Gain given the political climate.

Connecticut: Connecticut has become a Democratic heartland, like most of New England. Richard Blumenthal should win.

Delaware: What can I say, Delaware GOP voters blew what should have been an easy Republican pickup by choosing maverick Christine O'Donnell. Chris Coons wins convincingly.

Florida: Marco Rubio has gained political traction since the primary, uniting most Florida Republican voters behind him, while Crist and Meek split the Democrats and Independents. If this holds, Rubio should win.

Georgia: No problems for Johnny Isakson.

Hawaii: Easy win for longtime Senator Daniel Inouye.

Idaho: Crapo should post one of the more lopsided victories of the night.

Illinois: A true tossup in the Obama heartland. Voter turnout will decide this race. Given that early voting has been favoring Republicans, I predict that high GOP turnout will prevail for Mark Kirk. This one is hard to predict though.

Indiana: A generally red state with two relatively unknown candidates. Given the national trends and Indiana's traditional Republicanism, Coats should win easily.

Iowa: Centrist and favorite-son Chuck Grassley shouldn't have any problems.

Kansas: Easy win for Jerry Moran.

Kentucky: The nomination of Rand Paul has made this race for competitive for the GOP than it should have been. Nevertheless, he should carry conservative Kentucky.

Louisiana: David Vitter should win easily.

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski is one of the safest Democrats up for re-election. Only a true tidal wave could defeat her.

Missouri: Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan are both well known here. However, the DNC is seemingly giving up on Carnahan by pulling much of her national funding. Given this fact and that McCain won in MO, Blunt should carry the day.

Nevada; The Dems are bringing out the big guns to protect the Senate leader. A close race, but Republicans are more motivated. Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by a tight margin.

New Hampshire: This state has been favoring the Republican (albeit narrowly) all year. Kelly Ayotte wins.

New York: Political goliath Chuck Schumer against a no-name Republican. No contest.

New York (S): Kirsten Gillibrand is certainly more vulnerable than Schumer, and the NRSC had been pumping in funding to DioGuardi. But the Dems still rule in NY. Gillibrand wins.

North Carolina: Richard Burr maintains a solid lead, bucking earlier polling depicting a tighter race. GOP hold.

North Dakota: The popular Govenor John Hoeven has the most likely GOP pickup of the 2010 election. Don't be surprised to see Hoeven surpass 70% here.

Ohio: One of the hardest hit states by the economic crisis, Ohio's voters are pissed at Washington. This and the state’s Republican leaning give this race to Rob Portman.

Oklahoma: Tom Coburn is a shoo-in.

Oregon: Ron Wyden remains popular, and is running a strong campaign. I cannot see him losing.

Pennsylvania: Just as Republicans shot themselves in the foot in Delaware, Democrats might have done the same in nominating Joe Sestak. True, Pat Toomey is quite conservative for Pennsylvania, but Sestak is equally as liberal. The overall Republican climate favors Toomey.

South Carolina: Jim DeMint hangs on easily.

South Dakota: John Thune does not even have a Democratic opponent. This is easily the most lopsided GOP victory of the night.

Utah: The most Republican state in the nation, Mike Lee has no problems.

Vermont: Pat Leahy is probably the most likely Democrat to win.

Washington: Justine Gregoire faces a strong challenge from Dino Rossi, but Rossi always seems to find a way to lose. Gregiore holds on.

West Virginia: With the death of Robert Byrd, Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is trying to fill Byrd's large shoes. But with WV voting Republican in all recent Presidential elections, the time seems right for the GOP to win one of the state's Senate seats. John Raese wins.

Wisconsin: Democrat Russ Feingold finds himself facing the wrath of angry voters in his homestate. The once champion of campaign finance reform, Feingold seems likely to lose in a race representative of the national trend.


Version: 1

I give the momentum to the GOP given the miraculous result in Massachusetts, which should send shivers through all Democratic incumbents.

Alabama: Shelby wins easily.

Alaska: Heavily GOP, easy win for Lisa M.

Arizona: Has shown some increased Democratic support at recent national elections, but McCain is still a popular figure in the state.

Arkansas: People in the land of opportunity are not happy with Blanche Lincoln and her support for the Obama agenda, I predict a GOP gain here.

California: Even in a GOP year, hard to see Barbara Boxer losing...

Colorado: Michael Bennett, who took his seat after Salazar joined the Obama administration, does not seem liked by people in Colorado, although CO's increasingly Democratic nature makes this a tougher than expected gain for the GOP. But I think they can pull it off.

Connecticut: Chris Dodd's withdrawal and the GOP's deficit in fundraising here move this seat back to the Dems.

Delaware: Longtime Congressman Castle has a strong base and popularity here, I predict a 5-10 point win by Castle here.

Florida: No matter who the GOP nominates, whether it's Christ or not, Florida seems to be leaning GOP this year.

Georgia: The Peach State is a fairly GOP state, I think Isakson wins by a respectable margin, 10-15 points ro so.

Hawaii: No way Inouye loses.

Idaho: Idaho is as red a state as you'll find, Crapo landslide.

Illinois: This state is hard to judge, but I think Obama's influence alone should keep this state Democratic.

Indiana: The moderate Evan Bayh is liked and respected in Indiana, he should win by a good margin.

Iowa: Chuck Grasley is a GOP moderate, and in a GOP year, he should garner an easy win.

Kansas: Heavily GOP, easy Republican win.

Kentucky: Despite the disliked and cantankerous Jim Bunning (who is thankfully not running), Kentucky in pretty conservative, and should send a GOP candidate to Washington.

Louisiana: Vitter leads strongly in polls, should be an easy GOP win.

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski should win, unless the Dems begin to really tank in the polls.

Missouri: A state that voted narrowly for McCain. Narrow GOP win I predict, especially since Carnahan does not seem to be gaining traction.

Nevada: Majority Leader Harry Reid is a primary target for Republicans and trails badly in Nevada. I think he will be framed as the Democratic posterboy, and suffer the wrath of an unhappy electorate. GOP gain.

New Hampshire: Again, and uncertain state to predict given its increasingly Democratic nature. Paul Hodes actually isn't that bad a candidate for the Dems, but in a Republican year, I think Judd Gregg's seat can be held.

New York: Chuck Schumer remains immensely popular in my homestate:(, and it would take and act of god to defeat him...

New York (Special):...Kirsten Gillibrand on the otherhand is an unusual Dem for NY state to begin with, as she is pro-gun, and many other Dems in the state do not like her. Nevertheless, the ever incompetent NY GOP has failed to recruit and effective candidate, so she should win. >:(

North Carolina: Despite voting Obama in '08, North Carolina remains a relatively conservative southern state, and Burr should win.

North Dakota: Probably the most promising GOP gain, with Byron Dorgan stepping down and the popular Governor Hoeven running. Strong GOP gain.

Ohio: Recession has hit Ohio hard and the voters are restless. I think the GOP win narrowly in a hard fought race.

Oklahoma: Easy Coburn win.

Oregon: Ron Wyden is popular here, and should win comfortably.

Pennsylvania: Republican turned Democrat Arlen Specter faces a surprisingly tough challenge from Republican Pat Toomey. With the GOP gain in Massachusetts, Specter's change of party is suddenly for naught. I think Pennsylvania is tiring of Specter's power politics, so I give Toomey a narrow win.

South Carolina: Proly the most red state in the south, DeMint should win.

South Dakota: No strong challenger faces the well-funded Thune, the race should not be a problem for him.

Utah: As red a state as there is, easy GOP win.

Vermont: Pat Leahy is well liked in liberal Vermont. If the Dem's lose here, the party would be facing imminent collapse.

Washington: A fairly Democratic state, and a win for Murray.

Wisconsin: The independent-minded Democrat Russ Feingold doesn't seem to be facing any major challenge.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 1 147T305
P 2020 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 2 10 179T684
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 1 12 24T483
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T362
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T382
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T343
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T456
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T312
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 520/559 364/559 884/1118 79.1% pie


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