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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-5-98210-9
Rep+4+5+900010818+9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic103848
Republican272350
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
603327
piepiepie

Analysis

FINAL ANALYSIS

Alabama: Easy hold for Richard Shelby.

Alaska: The defeat of Lisa Murkowski in the primary and her subsequent strong write-in campaign make this race interesting. But Tea Party backed Joe Miller should still win in this heavily conservative state.

Arizona: With the immigration debate hot in voters minds, and with the Obama administration challenging the immigration law which has wide popularity here, even McCain can't lose this one.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is dead, despite her campaign's deep pockets. John Boozman wins easily.

California: Barbara Boxer faces perhaps her toughest ever re-election bid. However, in liberal California, she should squeak by.

Colorado: A close race, with voters having some reservations about Mike Bennet. I predict a GOP Gain given the political climate. Ken Buck wins.

Connecticut: Connecticut has become a Democratic heartland, like most of New England. Richard Blumenthal should win.

Delaware: What can I say, Delaware GOP voters blew what should have been an easy Republican pickup by choosing maverick Christine O'Donnell. Chris Coons wins convincingly.

Florida: Marco Rubio has gained political traction since the primary, uniting most Florida Republican voters behind him, while Crist and Meek split the Democrats and Independents. Rubio wins.

Georgia: No problems for Johnny Isakson.

Hawaii: Easy win for longtime Senator Daniel Inouye.

Idaho: Crapo should post one of the more lopsided victories of the night.

Illinois: A true tossup in the Obama heartland. Voter turnout will decide this race. Given that early voting has been favoring Republicans, I predict that high GOP turnout will prevail for Mark Kirk. This one is hard to predict though.

Indiana: A generally red state with two relatively unknown candidates. Given the national trends and Indiana's traditional Republicanism, Coats should win easily.

Iowa: Centrist and favorite-son Chuck Grassley shouldn't have any problems.

Kansas: Easy win for Jerry Moran.

Kentucky: The nomination of Rand Paul has made this race more competitive for the GOP than it should have been. Nevertheless, Paul should carry conservative Kentucky.

Louisiana: David Vitter should win easily.

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski is one of the safest Democrats up for re-election. Only a true tidal wave could defeat her.

Missouri: Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan are both well known here. However, the DNC is seemingly giving up on Carnahan by pulling much of her national funding. Given this fact and that McCain won in MO, Blunt should carry the day.

Nevada: The Dems are bringing out the big guns to protect the Senate leader. A close race, but Republicans are more motivated. Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by a tight margin.

New Hampshire: This state has been favoring the Republican (albeit narrowly) all year. Kelly Ayotte wins.

New York: Political goliath Chuck Schumer against a no-name Republican. No contest.

New York (S): Kirsten Gillibrand is certainly more vulnerable than Schumer, and the NRSC had been pumping in some funding to DioGuardi. But the Dems still rule in NY. Gillibrand wins.

North Carolina: Richard Burr maintains a solid lead, bucking earlier polling depicting a tighter race. GOP hold.

North Dakota: The popular Govenor John Hoeven has the most likely GOP pickup of the 2010 election. Don't be surprised to see Hoeven surpass 70% here.

Ohio: One of the hardest hit states by the economic crisis, Ohio's voters are pissed at Washington. This and the state’s Republican leaning give this race to Rob Portman.

Oklahoma: Tom Coburn is a shoo-in.

Oregon: Ron Wyden remains popular, and is running a strong campaign. I cannot see him losing.

Pennsylvania: Just as Republicans shot themselves in the foot in Delaware, Democrats might have done the same in nominating Joe Sestak. True, Pat Toomey is quite conservative for Pennsylvania, but Sestak is equally as liberal. The overall Republican climate favors Toomey.

South Carolina: Jim DeMint hangs on easily.

South Dakota: John Thune does not even have a Democratic opponent. This is easily the most lopsided GOP victory of the night.

Utah: The most Republican state in the nation, Mike Lee has no problems.

Vermont: Pat Leahy is probably the most likely Democrat to win.

Washington: Justine Gregoire faces a strong challenge from Dino Rossi, but Rossi always seems to find a way to lose. Gregiore holds on.

West Virginia: With the death of Robert Byrd, Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is trying to fill Byrd's large shoes. But with WV voting Republican in all recent Presidential elections, the time seems right for the GOP to win one of the state's Senate seats. John Raese edges to victory.

Wisconsin: Democrat Russ Feingold finds himself facing the wrath of angry voters in his homestate. The once champion of campaign finance reform, Feingold seems likely to lose in a race representative of the national trend.




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Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 1 12 28T
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T
Aggregate Predictions 436/466 296/466 732/932 78.5% pie


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