PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - Political Lefty (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:1

Prediction Map
Political Lefty MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Political Lefty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-2-3-510414-5
Rep+2+3+50-1-110717+4
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143852
Republican222345
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
663630
piepiepie

Analysis

I have almost no confidence in predicting Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, and Alaska. The first three are essentially coin tosses and Alaska has a very interesting dynamic going on. I think that race could go any way, with a real possibility of it being the only Democratic gain in the Senate this year. Nevada looks like the most worrisome of the group. Any surprises outside of the tossups appear to be very unlikely. I think Wisconsin is pretty close to lean Republican as Feingold appears to be doomed (his winning reelection would pretty much be an upset at this point). This prediction leaves the Senate with a 54-46 balance, probably on the realistic upper end for Democrats. I would expect any result between 51-54 Democratic Senators. Any other outcome probably means one party is doing a good job exceeding expectations.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 47/56 27/56 74/112 66.1% pie 1 0 473T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 21/34 51/68 75.0% pie 1 0 60T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 0 119T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 1 0 56T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 0 17T
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 2 0 4T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 1 0 2T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 0 24T
P 2010 Senate 36/37 30/37 66/74 89.2% pie 1 0 4
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 0 11T
P 2008 President 53/56 49/56 102/112 91.1% pie 7 1 3T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 4 1 9T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 2 1 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 101 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 16/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 184 257T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 160 107T
Aggregate Predictions 451/486 331/486 782/972 80.5% pie



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