Most likely final prediction map, unless I feel a strong compulsion to change it up tonight. Right now I have a pretty bad feeling about Giannoulias in Illinois, this is almost entirely because of the Jones effect. Giannoulias could well win this, but I think Jones is sucking the life out of him.

I continue to give Feingold the edge in Wisconsin, to continue my ongoing rant on why the polls are wrong here, Marist recently had Feingold down 10% in Milwaukee, not plausible. I think Feingold pulls it off by a narrow margin in the only poll that counts.

An interesting race seems to have emerged in the last week in Alaska where PPP has Miller up 7% on Murkowski and McAdams. Keep an eye out for a potential Democratic pickup here as McAdams polls at 50% favorability, well above Miller's abysmal 36% and sinking and Murkowski's steady 37%. Murkowski seems unlikely to win as a write in at 37% favorability, the road to victory is tough enough when you're not on the ballot to begin with. This is a tossup of a three-sided coin.

Sestak will pull out a narrow victory in Pennsylvania, polls there have assumed a strong enthusiasm gap that I don't think exists. Murray will carry Washington by somewhere in the range of 7%, while Boxer will win by close to 10% in California.

Harry Reid will benefit from the existence of 3rd party options and "none of the above" in Nevada, at the same time I've heard reports of very strong Democratic turnout in Clark County.

Joe Manchin's personal popularity will carry him to victory in West Virginia by something in excess of 5%, this race is/was made close only by the fact that Obama is (and always has been) extremely unpopular here, but Manchin will bring Conservative West Virginia Democrats home.

Finally, Colorado will be an extremely close one, I've always liked Michael Bennet and I think he pulls it off, but it will be extremely close.

CLOSEST RACES ON ELECTION NIGHT by margin.
1) Wisconsin (<2%)
2) Colorado (<2%)
3) Illinois (<3%)
4) Pennsylvania (<4%)
5) Alaska (<5%)