PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - gumball machine (L-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:87

Prediction Map
gumball machine MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
gumball machine MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep26
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-5-4-97310-9
Rep+5+4+900010818+9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic103848
Republican272350
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553322
piepiepie

Analysis

Last day prediction. I may update it later in the day, but here are my final calls (for now):
Wisconsin: Johnson +9.6
Alaska: Miller +6.2
Pennsylvania: Toomey +6.1
Illinois: Kirk +5.2
Nevada: Angle +4.2
Colorado: Buck +3.4
Washington: Rossi +1.4
West Virginia: Manchin +1.8
California: Boxer +4.8
Connecticut: Blumenthal +8.7
NPV: GOP +7.9
Net Change: GOP +8.8 seats
GOP Takeover Probability: 20%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2016 President 50/56 31/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 460 194T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 20/34 52/68 76.5% pie 1 539 35T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 8/12 17/24 70.8% pie 1 487 14T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 273 8T112
P 2014 Senate 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 30 0 21T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 17/36 45/72 62.5% pie 22 0 145T300
P 2010 Senate 33/37 22/37 55/74 74.3% pie 87 1 133T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 10 2 74T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 109 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 28 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 12 8 117T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 3 110 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 9/52 6/52 15/104 14.4% pie 2 - 213T271
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 3 78 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 39 1 31T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 17 9 107T312
Aggregate Predictions 397/477 266/477 663/954 69.5% pie



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